Topic: Mercados de suelo

Housing the World: A World Urban Forum Recap with Anacláudia Rossbach

June 26, 2026

By Anthony Flint, June 26, 2026

Humanity’s essential need for shelter is going unanswered around the globe. An estimated three billion people lack access to housing that is safe, decent, and connected to both jobs and basic services like energy, water and sanitation, according to the United Nations. An estimated 300 million people are currently experiencing homelessness.

“We are at a crossroads,” said UN-Habitat executive director Anacláudia Rossbach, freshly returned from last month’s 13th session of the World Urban Forum in Baku, Azerbaijan, on the latest episode of the Land Matters podcast. If the supply of sustainable housing stock is not increased, said Rossbach, many of the two billion people expected in coming years to migrate to cities—mostly in Asia and Africa—will simply move straight into unplanned informal settlements (colloquially known as slums, favelas, or shantytowns).

At the same time, Rossbach said, the record-breaking 58,000 participants from 176 nations at World Urban Forum 13—the latest convening of the biennial global cities summit that started in 2001—concluded that housing cannot be viewed simply as the construction of homes, but rather as part of an ecosystem connecting with land, infrastructure, transport, public services, and economic opportunity.

Accordingly, the Baku Call to Action recognizes that there are “interconnected pressures including rising costs, land speculation, displacement, imperfect governance systems, and climate impacts”; and that addressing these challenges requires “moving beyond fragmented approaches toward more integrated and people-centered solutions.”

Anaclaudia Rossbach stands in front of a section of white geometric building in Baku, Azerbaijan. She is wearing glasses and has shoulder length gray hair, a gray paisley scarf wrapped around her shoulders, and a blue lanyard.
UN-Habitat Executive Director and former Lincoln Institute of Land Policy program director Anacláudia Rossbach at the site of the World Urban Forum in Baku, Azerbaijan. Credit: UN-Habitat.

 

Enrique Silva, chief program officer at the Lincoln Institute of Land Policy, and a representative for nonprofit organizations at the World Urban Forum for many years, joined the conversation by pointing out the importance of land in any calculations related to global urbanization.

“We do not connect enough the relationship between land, land use, land policy, and housing as shelter, housing as an economic asset, housing as a dignified vehicle for improving our social and economic mobility,” he said. “A huge portion of the cost of housing, whether it’s a mansion or a shack, is land—the cost of land.”

UN-Habitat also recognizes that housing and climate change are intertwined challenges, calling for climate-smart housing design and alternative, low-carbon building materials, such as cement-free concrete. Cities must consider the carbon footprint of their expansion, said Rossbach—who formerly directed the Latin America and the Caribbean program at the Lincoln Institute—and acknowledge that the poorest populations are generally the most vulnerable to climate impacts such as flooding, mudslides, fires, and extreme heat. “They are on the front lines,” she said.

Reducing emissions and building resilience “is the intersection of how future urban development will take place, how we are going to transform the existing cities, the existing built environments, especially in the Global North, and how we are going to work with this upcoming needs in the Global South, especially in the areas that are highly urbanized,” she said. “How we build our houses, how we transform our built environment, how we address informal settlements, will have a direct relation in terms of climate.”

An aerial photo of Salvador, Brazil is bisected by a curving road, with low-lying informal housing on the left and forested land on the right. In the distance high-rise buildings are visible.
The low-lying houses of an informal settlement in Salvador, Brazil. Credit: Joa_Souza via iStock Unreleased/Getty Images.

 

Lincoln Institute staff were actively engaged at World Urban Forum 13, with Enrique Silva,  Luis Quintanilla, and Darla Munroe serving as panelists and facilitators for sessions on land value capture, affordable housing, slum upgrading and climate action strategies. The multimedia case study video Still the One, chronicling the creation of a pioneering community land trust in Burlington, Vermont, was also shown at the Urban Cinema venue.

The next summit, World Urban Forum 14, is scheduled to be in Mexico City in 2028.

Listen to the show here or subscribe to Land Matters on Apple Podcasts, SpotifyYouTube, or wherever you listen to podcasts.

 


Further Reading

Baku Call to Action Urges Renewed Commitment on the Global Housing Crisis | UN-Habitat News

Lincoln Institute at the Thirteenth Session of the World Urban Forum (WUF13) | Land Wise blog

Solving World’s Housing Crisis Requires More than New Construction | World Resources Institute

Slums are Bearing the Brunt of the Climate Crisis—and Devising Solutions  | Knowable Magazine


Anthony Flint is a senior fellow at the Lincoln Institute of Land Policy, host of the Land Matters podcast, and a contributing editor of Land Lines


Transcript

[00:00:04] Anthony Flint: Welcome to Episode 4 of Season 7 of the Land Matters podcast. I’m your host, Anthony Flint. On this show, we’re going to zoom out for a truly global perspective on cities where nearly two-thirds of the planet’s population reside—technically about 55 percent or 4 billion people as of now, but projected to be 68 percent by 2050. However you look at it, that’s a lot of people needing food, water, shelter, community, and economic opportunity.

Our guest is Anacláudia Rossbach, Executive Director of UN-Habitat, the United Nations agency that runs the World Urban Forum. That’s the biennial global conference on sustainable urbanization, bringing together leaders from all levels of government, urban planners, and nonprofit organizations to address the really big issues facing these cities, and in many cases, huge metropolitan areas.

The World Urban Forum was established in 2001, so it’s a quarter-century-old tradition that’s right alongside the World Economic Forum or the COP, Conference of Parties climate summits. The last World Urban Forum, World Urban Forum 13, was held in May in Baku, Azerbaijan. We’re catching up with Anacláudia to get a recap and understand what the most pressing challenges are, and of course, the collaboration that’s going on to find solutions.

We’re joined by my colleague Enrique Silva, Chief Program Officer at the Lincoln Institute of Land Policy, and a veteran of many a World Urban Forum. He’s been engaged, among other things, on the role civil society has to play in supporting this rapidly urbanizing planet of ours. Anacláudia, I know it’s been a whirlwind. That may well be a permanent condition for you, but we really appreciate you making time to join the conversation on Land Matters.

[00:02:01] Anacláudia Rossbach: For sure, Anthony. Thank you so much. I’m here because land matters.

[00:02:05] Anthony Flint: The perfect guest! Let’s step back, and if you could provide an overview of World Urban Forum 13 and where it sits, in your view, in the pantheon of these gatherings, and then maybe a little bit about the venue, Baku, and how that was chosen. Tell us about World Urban Forum 13.

[00:02:27] Anacláudia Rossbach: First of all, you mentioned it as being approved by the General Assembly, actually, of the United Nations in 2001, to be a mechanism to engage with stakeholders. It is the primary space that we have at UN-Habitat to liaise with the civil society, with the academia, with local and regional governments, and also even the private sector. This, in Baku, was the 13th edition, and it was record-breaking at many levels.

Perhaps the first is in terms of attendance. It took place at the Olympic Stadium in Baku, which also hosted COP29 back in 2024. We had 58,000 people on the ground with badges. With this number, I think it became the largest UN conference because it was even bigger than the COP. In terms of the broader context, what role it played in terms of really generating change on the ground, because this is what we want at the end of the day, this edition was very strategic because it happened just a couple of months before we meet in New York in July to review SDG 11 and to review the new urban agenda after 10 years.

The new urban agenda is our main document that guides our work. It was endorsed by member states in Quito, Ecuador, in 2016 at the Habitat III conference.

[00:03:53] Anthony Flint: Just let me interject to explain the SDG 11. That’s the Sustainable Development Goal.

[00:03:59] Anacláudia Rossbach: Yes, the sustainable development goals that frame what we call the 2030 agenda. As the name says, 2030 is just around the corner. We have literally four years until the end of this agenda. The United Nations committed to address these sustainable development goals that are related to several aspects of the world we live in, climate being one, but education, health, employment, gender, equality. The SDG 11 is the one that is dedicated to cities and communities. It has to do with housing, informal settlements, land consumption is one aspect, planning, participatory planning, basic services, urban mobility.

What we discussed at the World Urban Forum [is] informing us in this process of going to New York and the assessment of where we are, and to share with member states. The other piece is the new urban agenda that I mentioned before. We are looking at what happened in the last 10 years and what is going to happen in the next 10 years.

One critical aspect of the New Urban Agenda, when it was conceived, was housing. Housing was supposed to be at the center of the New Urban Agenda. Effectively, we are living a global housing crisis. This is why the World Urban Forum brought housing as central theme. Baku was a critical space for us to reflect, to have technical and political discussions on the progress of the new urban agenda, to bring all that to the meeting in New York in July.

[00:05:38] Anthony Flint: Now, I want to ask you more about housing. That was a big theme. I know it’s difficult to summarize, but the declaration on housing, tell us about that, and this re-emphasized focus on housing and basic shelter.

[00:05:53] Anacláudia Rossbach: The Baku call to action is a call to action, as the name says, by stakeholders only. There was no engagement by member states. Stakeholders met, the civil society, the CBOs, the CSOs, the academia, and so on, the different groups, youth, women, persons with disabilities, aging, indigenous. They all met there. The result of their conversations is the Baku call to action, which is a document that is also being brought to New York to inform member states. We need to deal with the housing crisis. It is global.

Informal settlements has been a prevalent form of living, but it is now almost a humanitarian issue because we are stagnated and we might be at the risk of expanding. We have to have a holistic view of the city. We have to go back to the new urban agenda, bring the principles of the new urban agenda of participatory governance, comprehensive urban planning, recognizing that land is fundamental, that land has a social and ecological function, but we need to make sure that people are at the center.

When saying people, it’s people having access to the basics, to water, to electricity, to waste management, integrated to the city, and a roof over their heads. These communities are the frontline, the frontline of climate change, but also human rights violations, evictions, and other forms of issues that are affecting people residing in the most vulnerable spaces in our cities.

[00:07:25] Anthony Flint: Housing is a big issue in the US; affordability, a big issue. It sounds like there’s a more fundamental question of how people can find safe shelter all around the world in these growing cities.

[00:07:40] Anacláudia Rossbach: It is a huge, huge task, and you’re right. Affordability became a global issue. What has been a prevalent feature of the Global South, always the gap between what people’s income and the cost of the house has been always really big. One of the reasons why we have the prevalence of informal settlements because people need to live somewhere, and if they cannot buy a house in the market, if the government doesn’t have money to provide the needed subsidies to cover this gap, they occupy.

Now, it’s an issue in North America. You mentioned the US. It’s an issue in Europe. In Europe, for example, for the first time, the European Union has a dedicated commissioner to housing. For the first time, they have a housing plan. I think the first time after the Marshall Plan, which was actually focused on housing, they have a housing plan for the continent because perhaps there is supply, but there is a mismatch of supply because people cannot access the units at the market, or there is a limitation of supply because the houses have been taken by, for example, tourists in some of the cities that are affected by high levels of tourism, or cities or countries that are attracting retired population, and things like that.

Bottom line, young people, families, they don’t have today the money to buy or to rent a house. In most of the countries, elderly, sometimes they cannot stay where they are, and so they lose their houses. These are all factors that are limiting affordability everywhere.

[00:09:10] Anthony Flint: We will share the declaration about housing in the show notes. I’d like to turn this question over to Enrique with a little commentary. Enrique, if you don’t mind, as a preamble, because you’ve been such a veteran of the World Urban Forum, we noticed that land and land policy is one of the three pillars in the current strategic plan, and we all want to learn more about that. Enrique, may I turn it over to you?

[00:09:37] Enrique Silva: Sure. Thanks so much. First, I want to say how much I’m enjoying, and I appreciate sharing the space with my friend and colleague, Anacláudia, and also to congratulate her and her colleagues for what was, as she noted, an outstanding forum a couple of weeks ago, by all measures. I also want to take a note on the World Urban Forum as a space. I think it’s understated, but the UN-Habitat in creating and offering the World Urban Forum creates probably the singular space for all of us that are interested, care about cities and human settlements to gather and to talk.

Without that space, it’s really hard to think about how we could create a community, even a multidisciplinary, multi-vision on what it means to take care of and advocate for cities. It’s great to see colleagues. It’s great to meet new colleagues and to share the accomplishments that we’re making, but also come together to understand what the challenges are. I also want to congratulate UN-Habitat and Anacláudia’s leadership for not just the forum, but what was behind the forum, as I understand it, is a strategic plan for UN-Habitat that also has housing in the center. That plan offers a systematic way to approach this huge task that we were just talking about.

That, in and of itself, is a contribution. Within that, and now to your question, one of the things that I appreciate and that is innovative about the focus on housing that UN-Habitat is proposing is that it really steps away from housing as pure shelter. It looks at the ecosystem behind housing. It looks at housing from a socioeconomic, cultural perspective. With regards to land, it acknowledges very clearly, and this is important, even though for us in the Lincoln Institute of Land Policy, it’s our daily bread, but out in the world, outside of our offices, we do not connect enough the relationship between land, land use, land policy, and housing as shelter, housing as an economic asset, housing as a dignified vehicle for improving our socioeconomic mobility.

That is something that needs to be really celebrated. There’s a space. UN-Habitat, through its plan, through the forum, has given a structured space to understand all of the dimensions of land. In particular, and I think one of the things that we need to look at it in terms of a huge task, is clearly stating that a huge portion of the cost of housing, whether it’s a mansion or a shack, is land, the cost of land.

That forces us to look at what drives the cost of land and how the cost of land affects the availability of land for anyone to put a house on that piece of land. That, for us, is something very important. We are strong allies with UN-Habitat to keep on hammering that message, but also doing the research and demonstrating how the relationship works, and why we need to develop clear strategies, multiple-level strategies, to link the way that we administer and allocate land and how that affects what we could offer as housing.

I’m sure we’re going to talk about informal settlements, but that relationship between land policy, the quality of land, and the availability of land is at the root of the proliferation of informal settlements. My take, and I think the take of many colleagues, if that’s at the root of informal settlements, the solutions to informal settlements also have to go through addressing the role of land.

[00:12:59] Anthony Flint: Anacláudia, do you have anything to add on the matter of land?

[00:13:03] Anacláudia Rossbach: I think in that sense, this … was also unprecedented because we really were able to connect our strategic plan, which has a very sharp focus. It’s access to housing, to land, basic services, the transformation of informal settlements, to the whole structure of the discussion. Of course, we will help the people attending, our people, our staff, but all the partners that attended to come back home with more concrete ideas, insights, and inspiration, and ideas, all that, but concrete examples on how to go back and to implement.

Enrique is right. Land is at the core. The price of land has been impacting all these effects in the market that is generating pressure on affordability. We have to look at that, at the root causes. I’m glad we are partnering with Lincoln to do that. What are the actions? What are the land policies? What are the mechanisms that you can apply at the local level? What are the laws that you need at the national level to help us overcome this challenge?

Also, if we look from the climate lens, which is one of the areas of impact of our strategic plan, and spoiler alert, we are still finalizing our SDG 11 report, but we’re still growing more in territory than in population. Urban sprawl is still bigger than what perhaps we need. This has a strong impact in the environment, in terms of the natural ecosystems, the natural environment, in terms of the infrastructure needed when we sprawl, and the footprint in terms of emissions.

I think at the World Urban Forum, the Baku call to action, we were able to bring all these different perspectives, the economic perspectives of markets, how they’re working, not working, how it’s putting pressure on affordability, how housing is so important for the SDGs, for the socioeconomic challenge that we have, but also the climate perspective. Land is a central aspect of that.

[00:15:00] Anthony Flint: Just following up on land and housing and the issue of informal settlement, you mentioned that we’re still expanding in terms of land at a rate that is a little bit at odds with the actual population, but there’s this sort of spreading out of informal settlement. What is the current view on what to do about that to try to prevent it or curtail it or to work with it in situ that there are improvements that can be made to improve the quality of life in these expanding informal settlements?

[00:15:37] Anacláudia Rossbach: First of all, recognize that they are there because we are talking about 1 billion people. We are at the moment at a crossroad. We have been able to stabilize informality growth in certain regions. However, we have Africa and Southeast Asia receiving about 2 billion people in the next couple of decades, and Latin America also in a crossroads after COVID. In the Global South, we might be at risk of expanding informality if we don’t take action. This is the big picture.

Also, in the Global North, informality also popping up and being recognized. I saw that in Europe. You see vulnerable communities, you have refugees, you have overcrowding. The point is let’s take a picture and let’s recognize they are there, and then having active policies to address that. Understanding that they have been the only option these people found when they moved to a certain city, to a certain metropolitan area.

As I said, they wouldn’t have the money to go to the markets and to a real estate agent and buy a house. The governments wouldn’t have programs that would reach the whole of the population. They go, they find a job, they have aspirations, they go to cities, and they don’t have a place to live. They occupy environmentally protected areas. Sometimes they occupy public land that has been empty or even private land that has been empty.

This is what I mean in terms of recognizing the social function of the land. Many countries, especially in Latin America, they have embedded that in their national legislation. Embedding in the legal regulatory framework that we accept slums are there, informal settlements are there, and the people have the right to stay there and to access services.

Then, of course, from that, embedding in the city planning, from that, making sure that public investments flow into these areas and can generate transformation. Transformation in terms of looking at densities, opening up pathways, roads, looking at drainage solutions, but also looking at public spaces, at green coverage, access to social, to leisure, to cultural amenities, and make sure that these areas are connected up to the city. Embedding in urban planning, embedding in the national development strategies, these are all strategies that we recommend from UN-Habitat.

[00:18:04] Anthony Flint: Enrique, you’ve been tracking this incredibly vast issue of informal settlement for many years. Where do you see things stand at this moment in terms of what most people would say are slums, shantytowns, informal settlement?

[00:18:20] Enrique Silva: I’m glad we’re touching on this subject. It’s one of the things that I appreciated about coming to work at the Lincoln Institute of Land Policy, in particular, its program in Latin America, which, in many ways, was established a little over 30 years ago to understand the relationship between land policy, land markets, and the proliferation of informal settlements or slums, as some call it.

The argument that we’ve developed over that period is to stop looking at informality as merely an issue of poverty and household low income or resources, and to look at it as fundamentally a failure in local governments or local markets to provide land that is of a quality sufficient enough to sustain everyone’s household shelter needs with dignity. That failure manifests itself in governments for markets not investing in infrastructure, water, electricity, or preparing land that’s close to job markets.

Those are land policy issues and decisions that are both public, also market-driven. For us, land policy tries to intermediate public decisions with market decisions. There, our largest, biggest argument is if you want to prevent informal settlements, the sheltering of people in places that are not recognized by law, talk about climate change, are in place because they’re not recognized by law, in ecologically vulnerable or susceptible places. If you want to prevent those, invest in what we call servicing land, which is ensuring that either the public sector or the market conditions land so that people can have housing.

Do it enough, in the quantity enough, it makes the purchase of the land accessible to more income levels. That’s to prevent it. We still argue that the best way, and as Anacláudia was saying, we have a window of opportunity here to prevent additional informal settlement. A strategy for that—it’s not the only one—a strategy for that is to look at how we can allocate and create service land or offer service lands at an affordable price so that people can buy and settle them into it.

As Anacláudia rightfully says, we have to also, first and foremost, recognize what’s already there because of the failures of the past, and we need to address those. There is a land policy component to regularizing informal settlements. Those tend to be, though, costly, much more complicated because you’re dealing with people’s homes that are already established, communities that have built community and developed extremely healthy social, economic ties.

There are ways to do that. We offer land policy and land-based financing opportunities to finance the regularization of some of these informal settlements. For us, in terms of how to tackle the informal sector, informal housing, it’s everything above. All options are on the table. It’s not just preventative. You have to do both. It’s not just about paying for upgrading, but it’s also looking at the different models to secure tenure of the households there. If and when that land is improved upon, those improvements don’t displace them, which happens often.

[00:21:26] Anthony Flint: We are talking about such big issues, and I want to make the final question about a really big one, and my sympathies for both of you to synthesize this, but that is climate change, both mitigation and resilience efforts, and the issue of climate migration. Anacláudia, what came out of World Urban 13 on the climate front?

[00:21:52] Anacláudia Rossbach: Many things. We have a very strong body of research on climate change. To start with some good news, we launched a publication. We reviewed the Generation 3.0 of the indices, the National Determined Contributions, what we call the national climate implementation plans, let’s say so in a more simple language.

[00:22:13] Anthony Flint: This is each nation’s plan for dealing with climate change?

[00:22:17] Anacláudia Rossbach: Exactly. They have to provide, and there is a third generation now. We used AI to analyze this third generation of reports, and we identified that 80 percent of these reports, they have an urban content, and half of them with some elements around housing and or informal settlements. The importance and the role of cities, of urban climate action, of local action is important to address climate change.

What we discussed, in addition to that, is the role of housing in that space. Cities are responsible for 70 percent of the emissions, and if you look at the built environment, it’s 34 percent. If we look at the city, the majority of the buildings are housing. The way we address housing, the way we address the housing crisis, will have strong implications in terms of climate. Why? Two sides of the coin. Mitigation and adaptation.

Adaptation, we spoke about informal settlements already. These are the people building incrementally, low profile, without sophisticated heating, cooling systems, and so on, very climate-friendly. They’re not contributing much to emissions. However, they are the ones being affected most. They are on the front line. Fires, disasters, landslides, floodings, sea level rise, you name it, they are on the front. Addressing issues, addressing informal settlements, making them stronger, resilient, looking at drainage, looking at protecting them from everything that I’m talking about, improving their housing conditions so that they’re more resilient in terms of disasters, of climate events.

This is an important aspect of this intersection, urban development, cities, informal settlements, housing, and climate change. We have 3 billion people living in inadequate situation right now, 300 million homelessness. We spoke about displacement, 120 million. These are the big numbers that we have. People displaced by conflicts, by climate change, and so on. This is happening as we speak. People are losing their houses. In that sense, housing, if we have to address the needs, we have to, A, either recycle existing buildings or build new ones. Recycling opportunities in the Americas, you’ll find some. In Europe, you’ll find some.

Where urbanization is really happening, in Africa and Southeast Asia, we still need to build because you just don’t have buildings to be recycled. The decisions that we take on how, where, and to whom we build will have an impact because if we don’t focus the upcoming buildings, if we don’t connect to the needs, we might exacerbate a mismatch of supply and demands and have unnecessary emissions.

If we look at location, if we keep up with the urban sprawl, we are, as I said, affecting the natural environments, biodiversity, the natural ecosystems, water. Look at metropolitan areas that are facing drought: Cape Town, Santiago, Bogota. The needs for infrastructure will imply more emissions. People move from place to place. This has impact in terms of air quality, in terms of emissions, et cetera. We have to look at location and we have to look at materials and the form and the design of all that.

Here is the intersection of how future urban development will take place, how we are going to transform the existing cities, the existing built environments, especially in the Global North, and how we are going to work with this upcoming needs in the Global South, especially in the areas that are highly urbanized. How we build our houses, how we transform our built environment, how we address informal settlements will have a direct relation in terms of climate. It’s very interesting that we are talking about that today, Anthony, because as we speak, we are here in Nairobi at a conference meeting the IPCC Cities Report authors.

For the first time, we’re going to have an IPCC Cities Report focus on cities. We have been discussing within these days the role that housing plays. In all conversations that we are having here, we all understand housing is a critical aspect. If we don’t deal with that right, we’ll not be able to achieve the 1.5 or above targets.

[00:26:46] Anthony Flint: Looking ahead, there’s going to be another World Urban Forum, the World Urban Forum 14, as I understand it, in Mexico City in 2028. Anacláudia, a brief look ahead to that gathering.

[00:26:59] Anacláudia Rossbach: First of all, I hope to meet you all in Mexico City in 2028. It will be a critical moment because we are going to follow up on the Baku call to action … housing, land, human rights, all is there. The WUF14 will be used as a moment to reflect what happened and to see how action is really taking place and being implemented. We hope also to have strong mobilization towards WUF14. In this last WUF, we had many innovations. We had a practices hub. We had the WUF Academia.

We are organizing the practices, the different segments into more structured coalitions, communities of practice, way of work. We hope to come stronger as a global, let’s say, coalition in Mexico City, have more allies, bring, because it’s in Latin America, the perspective from the Americas, and experiences from the Americas. Also, we brought in Baku for the first time, very strong, the private sector. This is one segment that needs to be part of the conversation. We hope to elevate that in Mexico City.

[00:28:14] Anthony Flint: Anacláudia Rossbach, Executive Director of UN-Habitat. Enrique Silva, Chief Program Officer at the Lincoln Institute of Land Policy. Thank you so much for joining the conversation at Land Matters.

[00:28:28] Anacláudia Rossbach: Thank you so much. It was a big pleasure to be with my former colleagues, but forever friends. Lincoln is a key stakeholder. We hope to keep our partnership very strong and towards Mexico.

[00:28:39] Enrique Silva: Rest assured, it’s very strong, and it can keep on getting strong. Wonderful to be here. Thank you.

[00:28:44] Anthony Flint: We have extensive research on global urbanization, informal settlement, climate resilience, all of the big issues facing global cities. Just check out our website. It’s lincolninst.edu. On social media, our handle is @landpolicy. I hope you’ll go ahead and rate, share, and subscribe to Land Matters, the podcast of the Lincoln Institute of Land Policy. For now, I’m Anthony Flint signing off. Until next time.

[00:29:22] [END OF AUDIO]

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Visita con un becario

Taking the Long View on Real Estate Investments

By Jon Gorey, Mayo 1, 2026

The Lincoln Institute provides a variety of early- and mid-career fellowship opportunities for researchers. In this series, we follow up with our fellows to learn more about their work.

What can an 18th-century orphanage tell us about housing affordability today? Quite a lot, says Thies Lindenthal, professor of real estate finance at the University of Cambridge.

In Europe, many institutions, like orphanages and hospitals, historically held large portfolios of market-rate rental properties to help fund their primary operations, Lindenthal says, and some kept detailed financial records that span several centuries. That’s allowed Lindenthal and his colleagues to trace the long-term evolution of urban housing affordability by analyzing nearly half a million rent observations and other data from seven major European cities during a period of more than 500 years.

Their findings, detailed in a recent working paper, may sound surprising: In inflation-adjusted terms, real urban rents have increased only about 0.17 percent a year, on average, over the last half a millennium. “If you compare what you’re paying for a 50-square-meter place in London now to what you’d have paid, I don’t know, 100 years ago, it is not more expensive,” Lindenthal says. However, modern Europeans do pay higher rents in total—consuming more and better living space than people in centuries past.

In 2019, Lindenthal was awarded a David C. Lincoln Fellowship, which supports scholars and practitioners conducting new research on land value taxation and its applications.

In this interview, which has been edited for length and clarity, Lindenthal elaborates on his centuries-spanning real estate research, reflects on what artificial intelligence might mean for academic researchers, and reveals the actual reasons so many people tend to like historical housing (hint: it’s not really about the architecture).

JON GOREY: What is the general focus of your work?

THIES LINDENTHAL: I’m working on real estate finance topics, and mostly I’m looking into the risk-return profile of real estate as an investment. So at the asset level, what are the returns that people have achieved, what are the returns they believe they achieve, what are the returns they should achieve? And then trying to measure properly what kind of risks they are exposed to and what kind of risk-adjusted returns that they actually got in the end.

JG: What are you working on now, or hoping to work on next?

TL: I’m now in week four of my experiment to do my job with [Anthropic’s AI tool] Claude. It is quite a ride. I’ve always been interested in using big data, or biggish data, and machine learning to answer the types of questions that we work on in our field. But I think we’re now in the next step, where the machines can actually help us not just do individual tasks, but also tie them together—anything from data management to building up empirical pipelines to running tasks to interpreting tasks to doing quality control to a degree, and then, in the end, even producing reports or presentations based on that.

And that is quite a change. I mean, for academics, the stuff that we’re good at—not everything, but a lot of these things—Claude is extremely good at. So we have to really think about what it is that we can add to the mix.

JG: You’ve tracked certain real estate data across hundreds of years. Can you talk about how you’re able to do that—what kind of records exist from 400 years ago?—and what these very long-term historical property trends can tell us?

TL: We go back to the archives and find rents, and find prices, and sometimes you can find costs for portfolios from institutional investors across Western Europe. So we have good data from the Netherlands, from Belgium, from France, and somewhat okay data from England. These are records from what you’d call institutional investors—hospitals, orphanages—people who use real estate to generate income to then spend that money on running a hospital or something like that. They’re reliant on these very large portfolios of properties across a number of cities—Amsterdam, Brussels, Paris, London. And from these records, we can see how real estate, as an investment, is linked to other investment classes—for instance, how it’s linked to government bonds—and we can see how rents and prices are in equilibrium over the long run.

One thing that I find so important about these long-run data is that we can observe cities that are relatively free, so there’s very little interference from any type of regulation. You can see that in the long run, if rents and prices can adjust in a free, supply-and-demand kind of way, they don’t go through the roof, they are just nicely coming back to fundamentals.

And the other thing that’s interesting is that, if you actually start to try out policies that aim to improve affordability, for instance, or try to increase the quality of the housing stock, then that can actually work. So we’ve seen free markets, where stuff is not going through the roof. But then also we see the 1930s, 1940s, ’50s and ’60s in Europe, where you see a lot of different things being tried out in these cities, and houses get cheaper, houses get better, people live in better places.

Affordability, depending on how you look at it, might get worse, because people pay more—but also they live in much better quarters.… If you’re tracking affordability across the centuries, you’ll see that the price per square foot of space in a city has not become more expensive; on the contrary, it has become a lot cheaper.

But we don’t live in the same way as people lived 100 years ago—and luckily so. We have running water, we have more space, it’s better, it’s bigger, it’s healthier. A lot of progress has been made there. We are demanding a lot more housing services. Stuff got cheaper, but we consume a lot more of it. So overall, we pay more, but the fact that stuff has become expensive is also just reflecting the fact that stuff has gotten better.

an aerial view of a residential London neighborhood
A high angle view of Victorian townhouses and flats in central London’s Marylebone district. Credit: georgeclerk via Getty Images.

JG: What’s one thing you wish more people understood about real estate finance?

TL: The number one insight is that the returns you get for real estate investments are realistic returns that represent the risk. You’re not getting something that is exceptionally good, that is better than other investments, no—but also nothing that is worse. This idea that you have to get into real estate as an investment, because it will make you rich? No. That’s simply not true. Some people are lucky, and some people are not lucky, but on average, you get a fair return.

JG: Have you encountered anything surprising or counterintuitive in your research?

TL: Maybe eight years back, there was this concept in the UK that the best way to create more supply of housing, to overcome the NIMBYism and the deadlock of supply not coming through, would be to just build in historical styles—to just say, you know what, we won’t build this modern stuff anymore, no more glass, no more steel, we’re going to build cozy, Victorian-style terrace houses. And if we do that, we build more beautifully, and everything will fall into place. And that was a bit of wishful thinking.

We did a study here, looking at the transaction prices that we see in the market, trying to account for the fact that the [older] buildings are in nicer locations and have bigger gardens and more greenery around them, and are better quality in terms of materials and so on. And that’s why they achieve higher prices. And the interesting thing was that, in a solid and data-driven way, accounting for these quality differences, we saw no premium at all for old architecture—not for your own property, but also no premium because your neighbors have a certain architecture.

So yes, green space matters. Yes, the quality of the materials matters. But if a house looks ’60s or ’80s or 1860s, that was not a big driver. I’m a bit of an architecture snob, I think good architecture matters. But it is more complicated than just saying, it has to look Victorian style or something. There’s still value in architecture, but I think that a good chunk of the home buyers don’t care.

What really surprised me is a different experiment that we ran, where we showed 2,000 pictures of houses from around the world to people in an app, and they could like or dislike each house. It was a bit like Tinder for houses: They could swipe left, or swipe right. We took the responses to these images and trained machine learning models to capture the aesthetic preferences of people. I was expecting to see some form of cluster [based on demographics or geography], buildings that everybody dislikes, or buildings that everybody likes, and we found surprisingly few of those. That was something I found really, really surprising. People like greenery, so that was across the board. People like space, people dislike density, and so on. So there’s stuff that showed up across the board, but it was not so much about the properties themselves, it was more about the setting in which these properties were located.

JG: What’s the best book you’ve read lately?

TL: One of the books that I really enjoyed was Careless People [A Cautionary Tale of Power, Greed, and Lost Idealism by Sarah Wynn-Williams], that is a really good book.

JG: When it comes to your work, what keeps you up at night? And what gives you hope?

TL: Well, it’s not very creative, but the AI revolution keeps me awake, and gives me hope. I think it’ll fundamentally change what we do, how we live; it will change society.

The problem is, you have the same people who are described in Careless People at Facebook, I presume that the same kind of people are running Open AI, and that is not good news. It’s the same kind of unchecked power. I mean, if you realize the power that is coming out of the big AI companies, and then read Careless People, that will keep you awake at night.


Jon Gorey is a staff writer at the Lincoln Institute of Land Policy.

Lead image: Thies Lindenthal, professor of real estate finance at the University of Cambridge. Credit: Courtesy photo.

Leader in a Land of Extremes

April 26, 2026

By Anthony Flint, April 26, 2026

The Lincoln Institute’s Mayor’s Desk series has featured municipal leaders from a wide range of metropolitan regions all over the world, but the latest installment may well be the most farflung: Fairbanks, Alaska, a city of about 30,000 people adjacent to Russia and the North Pole that was awarded the title of coldest city in America, having set a record low of minus 66 degrees Fahrenheit. Not counting any wind chill.

The place is “a land of extremes,” says Mayor Mindy O’Neall, who has had to manage a range of issues, from affordable housing to climate change, that land differently at the gateway to the Arctic. It’s a good thing, she observes, that living there brings out a special kind of resilience.

“At the heart of it is the people … who have grit and determination,” said O’Neall, the latest chief executive to be interviewed in the Mayor’s Desk series, recorded for the Land Matters podcast. The swing from frigid cold to surprisingly hot summers, and from deep darkness to strong sunlight, fosters a mindset of both abundance and scarcity. “We’re at the end of the line, we have three to four days of food security at any given time.”

O’Neall, 44, unseated an incumbent last year to become the city’s 53rd mayor. She campaigned on themes including downtown revitalization, affordable housing, and public safety, and has pursued strategies to promote generational wealth through homeownership and leverage government-owned land for affordable housing.

“Building homes and housing has been the game or the business of large, wealthy developers. And in our community, we just can’t really afford that. We don’t have enough folks for a large developer to make money here,” she said. “When we start to rethink about who’s investing in our own community and who can invest, then we start to, I think, build out that wealth, better.”

The freeze-and-thaw dynamics that have become more careening in a rapidly changing climate have also been a challenge, as the region must attempt to manage extreme occurrences ranging from floods to wildfires.

“They often call the Arctic the canary in the coal mine, because we start to see the issues of climate change far beyond and far before the lower 48 or other parts of the world. The Arctic has been saying that something’s happening in our environment for quite some time,” O’Neall said.

“I don’t think that there’s really much we can do about this now. It’s happening. We’re in a cycle of climatic disruption, for sure. But we can plan for extreme events, so we know what we’re going to do when the power goes out and it’s negative 30 degrees. We know what’s going to happen when our river floods in the middle of our town, and we’ve lost access to the hospital.

“We’re seeing less and less investment from the federal government,” she said. “So as Alaskans, it’s time for us to think really hard about how we want to protect… our assets. And that comes back to the values that we hold as a community.”

O’Neall grew up in Iowa and drove a stick-shift pickup truck up north, first working as an aide in the Alaska Legislature, then at the Fairbanks Economic Development Corporation and the Interior Gas Utility, and also founded Blue Canoe Media, a boutique communications and consulting firm. She holds a BA in Event Planning and Business Communication from Iowa State University and an MA in Professional Communications from the University of Alaska Fairbanks, where her research focused on governance and climate impacts on rural Alaska, including the relocation of Native communities.

Prior to her election as mayor, she served on the Fairbanks North Star Borough Assembly and was executive director of the Cold Climate Housing Research Center, and also serves on the boards of the Alaska State Homebuilders Association and Alaska Municipal League.

Aerial View of the Fairbanks, Alaska Skyline during Summer
Downtown Fairbanks, Alaska. Credit: Jacob Boomsma via iStock/Getty Images Plus.

 

She lives in downtown Fairbanks with her dog, Tito, who she pointed out is the true official dog of Alaska—the mutt. O’Neall visited Cambridge recently as part of the Just City Mayoral Fellowship at Harvard University’s Graduate School of Design, now in partnership with the Bloomberg Center for Cities.

An edited version of this Mayor’s Desk interview will appear online and in print in Land Lines magazine. The first 20 of these Q&As were compiled in the book Mayor’s Desk: 20 Conversations with Local Leaders Solving Global Problems, which includes a foreword by Michael Bloomberg.

Listen to the show here or subscribe to Land Matters on Apple Podcasts, SpotifyYouTube, or wherever you listen to podcasts.

 


Further Reading

Fairbanks Passes 2026 City Budget, Adds Positions | KTUU/KTVF

Climate Hazards Cost Fairbanks, Anchorage Homeowners Millions | University of Alaska News

Energy Crisis Faces Fairbanks as Well as Anchorage | Reporting from Alaska

  


Anthony Flint is a senior fellow at the Lincoln Institute of Land Policy, host of the Land Matters podcast, and a contributing editor of Land Lines. 


Transcript

[00:00:05] Anthony Flint: Welcome to Episode 3 of Season 7 of the Land Matters podcast. I’m your host, Anthony Flint. In our Mayor’s Desk series here at the Lincoln Institute, we interview municipal chief executives from around the world. Our latest conversation brings us all the way to Fairbanks, Alaska, a city of about 30,000 people, way up north near Russia, the gateway to the Arctic as it’s known, the second largest city in the state after Anchorage, and a metropolis that has been awarded the title of coldest city in America, having set a record low of minus 66 degrees Fahrenheit.

We’re talking with 44-year-old Mindy O’Neall, who recently replaced an incumbent and campaigned on themes including downtown revitalization, affordable housing, and public safety. She grew up in Iowa and drove a stick shift pickup truck up north, first working as an aide in the Alaska State Legislature, then the Fairbanks Economic Development Corporation and the Interior Gas Utility, and also founded Blue Canoe Media, a boutique communications and consulting firm.

She holds a BA in event planning and business communication from Iowa State University and an MA in professional communications from the University of Alaska Fairbanks, where her research focused on governance and climate impacts on rural Alaska, including the relocation of Native communities. Prior to her election as mayor, she served on the Fairbanks North Star Borough Assembly and was executive director of the Cold Climate Housing Research Center, and also serves on the boards of the Alaska State Homebuilders Association and Alaska Municipal League.

She lives in downtown Fairbanks with her dog, Tito, who, as she pointed out, is the true official dog of Alaska, the mutt. I first met her at a program for mayors at Harvard and followed up with this interview.

For the uninitiated, including those of us in the lower 48, what kind of place is Fairbanks, and why did you want to be mayor?

[00:02:22] Mayor Mindy O’Neall: Well, thanks, Anthony, and thanks for inviting me onto the show. I get this question a lot, especially for the uninitiated, as you said. That’s cute. You’re right. Fairbanks really is an exotic place. I would say we’re the land of extremes. We are extremely cold in the winter. We’re extremely warm in the summer. Some people may be surprised to learn that we can get up to 90 to 100 degrees in the summer. The force of the sun, the feeling of the sun, is so direct that it is just something you have to experience. We have exotic animals, grizzly bears, and polar bears. We have extreme industry like mining and gas and oil development. We are definitely a place of extremes.

At the heart of it is the people. It’s these people who have grit and determination, and oftentimes this mindset of abundance, where we have so much, as far as so much light, so much darkness. Then, a lot of times, this mindset of scarcity as well, where we’re at the end of the line, we have three to four days of food security at any given time. There’s things that also come into play that really just demonstrate how much of an extreme environment we live in.

Yes, wanting to be mayor. I’ve been in Alaska for over 23 years. I’m originally from Iowa, so I’m a land dweller from the middle of the United States. I came up here, just like a lot of other folks, looking for adventure. If you’ve ever been to the Midwest, they say, “Why would you ever want to leave the land, the heartland?” I said, “Don’t worry, I’ll be back in a year. I just want to go check it out.” After a year, it was painfully obvious that there was so much more to discover to Alaska that I just had to stay. I made my way up to Fairbanks from Anchorage after being there for seven years. I worked in the legislature and started to work for an interior gas utility that brought natural gas to our town.

During that time, I was an untraditional student and went back to our flagship university at the University of Alaska Fairbanks, and got a master’s in organizational development. I wrote my thesis on the politics of relocating Alaska Native villages due to climate change. At the time, I didn’t really realize how that was going to inform my career as much as it has, because after being a labor agent for the laborers. I was the executive director for the Cold Climate Housing Research Center. I spent the last four years doing that while also serving on the Borough Assembly.

One of the things that’s interesting about Alaska is we have seven boroughs that are like counties in the lower 48, and then we have cities within those boroughs. Fairbanks has a borough that has a governing body, which is the assembly, and a mayor. Then within the borough, there are two cities that have each their own mayor and each their own governing bodies. Now I am the mayor of the city of Fairbanks. I have a city council that’s a smaller council that’s located within the borough. The borough is about the size of New Jersey, with 130,000 folks in it. The city is 32,000 of those. Then the city located within the borough is the city of North Pole. They have about 2,500 folks in there.

Like a lot of places where you go from city to city in urban areas, you may or may not know what boundary you’re in. That can be sometimes a point of confusion. We always like to joke for a place that’s so against government and against overregulation, we have a lot of government regulating us.

After serving in the assembly for six and a half years, I started my public service during COVID. I think I had been appointed for about six months and then elected about four months before COVID happened. I really learned how to govern in an elected position through a screen. I do think that COVID was obviously and certainly a pivotal point in politics, but even just in the way that we communicate. That’s my passion, my heart and soul, is communication and journalism, and that sort of thing. We had a mayor that was on paper doing a fine job. He had gotten programs started and knew the city really well and led it, but he was very discriminatory to the Alaska Native population here.

After some comments and some blow-ups that he had on social media, I knew that if anybody was going to be able to beat him in an election, that I’d be able to do it. I just believe that public service is a privilege, and somebody who is in office has to have the respect of every population that is within their community. I’ve wrestled with this a little bit coming into office as, well, the last mayor, he wasn’t doing a bad job. He was actually doing a good job, but he wasn’t showing our community the respect.

I think sometimes we miss out on that key piece of public service is showing your community respect, even if you don’t understand them, even if you don’t agree with them. I think that we have lost that on a lot of levels of government these days. I believe in government. I believe that we have government for a reason. When you don’t have good governance, I do think that one of the benefits of being in this position in the last six months is being a female. This is the first time Fairbanks has had a female mayor in about two decades. I’m the fourth one since 1903.

It’s really touching to be able to be, and especially a young female in my 40s, leading this community and being a role model for other girls in our community to see that there’s somebody like them who treats a community with respect and can lead in an environment that is sometimes very hostile and sometimes very male-driven. That’s a long way of saying that’s how I ended up here.

[00:09:02] Anthony Flint: Everybody’s wrestling with affordability these days. One big part of that is housing. What are the policies that can help in your region, whether home buying or renting?

[00:09:14] Mayor Mindy O’Neall: I mentioned at the beginning that Fairbanks is at the end of the line. While that’s true, we also have an abundance of resources that are part of our economy. We have timber, we have renewable energy, we have access to gravel, and alternative methods such as mycelium. While we’re at the end of the road, we have these resources at our disposal to be innovative on how we approach housing. I think that those answers come in local manufacturing of our own resources, innovation, and then also building things like kind of part homes that have been tested for extreme environments.

We suffer from a housing stock that’s from the ’70s. Alaska really got its last big boom during the oil pipeline of the ’70s. What happened was there was such an explosion of Westerners coming up to the state that they built things the way that they knew how to build things, which was without a lot of insulation, built out of whatever they had. We suffer from very inefficient housing. When we talk about what affordable housing is, for us, it really has to include a component of energy efficiency, so we can even afford to heat our homes.

This year, we’ve had one of the coldest winters on record. I think it was the fourth coldest winter on record. We also got a remarkable amount of snow. It’s been very challenging for folks, especially now that oil prices are going up. We have about 1,200 folks in our community that are on natural gas. Everybody else is heating their homes with diesel fuel. If you think about that, we have folks who are getting delivery of diesel fuel to their homes, myself included. I live in the most urban part of our city.

Going back to affordable housing, it really does include this holistic look of what’s going to work and how we can be energy efficient with our housing, but also how we can use our local resources for innovation and how we can manufacture the resources that we have here. Secondly, and this is something that I think is really interesting, is this idea, this concept of building generational wealth outside of homeownership. That’s a model and a tool that I’d really like to explore more as we talk about how we’re building affordable housing in our community.

[00:11:45] Anthony Flint: This is this idea that not everybody has to buy a home. It’s perfectly fine to rent.

[00:11:50] Mayor Mindy O’Neall: Perfectly fine to rent, but then the next question is, how do renters gain generational wealth so they’re not just handing over money every month without anything in return? They get a house to live in, but there’s no equity in it after a while. In what ways — and I know there are models out there — when we’re building affordable housing, how can we lower the amount of investment for folks in a way that it might not come back to them for 30 to 50 years, but in 30 to 50 years, they’re on their second or third generation of family where they have security in their family in a form of tangible wealth?

[00:12:34] Anthony Flint: There’s also the community land trust model, where you have this more shared equity, and there’s limits on resale, but you still have it.

[00:12:43] Mayor Mindy O’Neall: I like that. There’s more and more folks talking about how to do this in innovative ways. I think typically building homes and housing has been the game or the business of large, wealthy developers. In our community, we just can’t really afford that. We don’t have enough folks for a large developer to make money here. When we start to rethink about who’s investing in our own community, and who can invest, then we start to, I think, build out that wealth better.

[00:13:17] Anthony Flint: The Lincoln Institute has been helping municipalities identify government-owned land that can be used for affordable housing. Do you see opportunities in that approach?

[00:13:29] Mayor Mindy O’Neall: Absolutely, I do. A few facts for you here. 60% of our land in Alaska is federal. 25% is owned by the state of Alaska. It’s about 580,000 acres. 10% is owned by Native corporations, and 1% is private. We have a lot of government land that’s available. Now, about 80 million of those acres are managed for conservation, but that’s still quite a bit of land left for us to use. I think what the Lincoln Institute is doing, exploring these different land-use models, including transportation and other components of community building, is fantastic. I can’t wait to get my hands on more of that information. I signed up for the newsletter.

We have a parking structure that has been mothballed for, gosh, probably five years. The university that used it ended up not needing it. They literally welded the doors shut, and this building has been sitting there deteriorating ever since. Through the Alaska Housing Finance Corporation, who is a statewide housing financing bank, they purchased that parking garage and have put it out for bid for affordable housing. They worked with us, saying, “Okay, we own this now, but it’s right in the middle of your city. What do you want to do with this?” We walked through the options that we have. Do we want senior housing? Yes, we desperately need senior housing. Is this the right place? We don’t think so. Okay. Next option, affordable housing, high-end housing, two bedrooms, apartment. What is it that we need? Through that process, we’ve put out an RFP for a developer to then build two or three stories on top of that parking garage, therefore activating the space using, again, the parking garage for parking, covered parking, which is very important in Fairbanks, Alaska, but also getting units into the downtown core.

That’s one example. There’s a few others that we have ongoing in town, but that’s one example that I’m really eager to see how that plays out.

[00:15:48] Anthony Flint: What are the unique challenges of living with climate change in Alaska, and what, at the state and local level, can be done about it?

[00:15:57] Mayor Mindy O’Neall: They often call the Arctic the canary in the coal mine because we start to see the issues of climate change far beyond and far before the lower 48 or other parts of the world. The Arctic has been saying that something’s happening in our environment for quite some time. I mentioned before what we’ve noticed is we have more wind in Fairbanks, which means that we have more risk for summer fires, wildfires. In the winter, we’ve had more snow than usual.

It’s also been very cold, so colder than usual, which means that our ground will not thaw quickly, meaning that when the temperature gets hot in the air, what’s going to happen? It’s all going to melt into water, but there’s going to be nowhere for it to go because the ground hasn’t unthawed yet. Now we miss out on that water. We get lots of floods, and then we don’t have moisture in the ground, and so it’s more susceptible to wildfires in the summer. That’s just one instance of the cycle of how climate change has affected the interior.

I don’t think that there’s really much we can do about this now. It’s happening. We’re in a cycle of climatic disruption, for sure, but we can plan for it. We can plan for extreme events, so we know what we’re going to do when the power goes out and it’s negative 30 degrees. We know what’s going to happen when our river floods in the middle of our town and we’ve lost access to the hospital or to hotels. We know what to do when we have an ice event because we got three or four inches of rain on top of three or four feet of snow in the middle of winter, and how that affects the animals, the moose. How it affects our ability to hunt and fish and gather berries or medicinal foods.

I think planning is a very big part of how we are prepared because, honestly, you don’t know what’s going to happen from season to season. The other thing is with planning comes money. Alaska is a place where we do not collect sales taxes on a statewide basis. Some municipalities do — we do not, as the municipality of Fairbanks — and income taxes. We pay property taxes, and that’s all we pay. As we address these more and more climatic, dramatic events, it’s costing us more and more to repair the roads, costing more and more to protect the utilities that are above and below ground, and somewhere that’s going to have to come from funding.

We’re seeing less and less investment from the federal government for events like that. As Alaskans, it’s time for us to think really hard about how we want to protect and at what level we want to protect our assets that we have, and what level of commitment that comes from our own pocketbooks.

[00:19:04] Anthony Flint: Yes, leading into that, figuring some of this stuff out at the local level or the local and state level seems to be really important right now. How have you navigated being a mayor at a time when the federal government is reducing funding and more or less withdrawing from being a partner on so many issues?

[00:19:26] Mayor Mindy O’Neall: Yes. It seems like we continue to ask our employees to do more with less. At the same time, the public expects services to be modern. That means we have to invest in technology. A lot of times, we just don’t have the funding for that. It’s a tough spot, I got to say. I have all of these ideas and plans for being mayor. Then you come into the office and you’re like, “Okay, how am I going to make this work with the operations that we already have going, the way we want to provide services and make things more efficient for our public with less and less funding from the state and from the federal government?”

Again, I do think that we’re going to have to look at ways that we contribute to ourselves, and that comes back to the values that we hold as a community. We’re a place where tourists want to be because that’s also a big part of our economy. It’s tough. I haven’t figured it out yet, but I have two and a half more years to go. It’s definitely something I’m working on a lot, and how we do more with less and how we increase, or how we explain the value of good governance with putting our own skin in the game.

[00:20:43] Anthony Flint: Mindy O’Neall is mayor of Fairbanks, Alaska, the latest leader to be interviewed in the Lincoln Institute’s Mayor’s Desk series. We love talking to mayors, and we’ve compiled 20 of these interviews in a book, Mayor’s Desk: 20 Conversations with Local Leaders Solving Global Problems, which includes a forward by Michael Bloomberg. Otherwise, Mayor’s Desk interviews appear in Land Lines magazine, in addition to most of them being broadcast here on the Land Matters podcast. You can find everything on the Lincoln Institute website. Just navigate to lincolninst.edu.

On social media, our handle is @landpolicy. Please go ahead and rate, share, and subscribe to Land Matters, the podcast of the Lincoln Institute of Land Policy. For now, I’m Anthony Flint signing off, until next time.

[00:21:41] [END OF AUDIO]

Read full transcript
Curso

Financiación Urbana y Políticas de Suelo: Conceptos, Juegos y Simuladores

Mayo 31, 2026 - Junio 5, 2026

Ofrecido en español


Las ciudades de América Latina y el Caribe enfrentan desafíos importantes para orientar y financiar sus procesos de desarrollo urbano, ante los cuales la planeación territorial y el fortalecimiento de fuentes de financiación basada en el valor del suelo ameritan especial atención y consideración.

El curso “Financiación Urbana y Políticas de Suelo: Conceptos, Juegos, y Simuladores” examina las alternativas que ofrecen la gestión del suelo y la movilización de plusvalías para atender estos desafíos relacionados con la financiación de infraestructura y la provisión de vivienda asequible. Se centra en el análisis de las experiencias latinoamericanas y combina discusiones de aspectos conceptuales interdisciplinarios y un énfasis en el aprendizaje basado en juegos y simuladores.

El curso, además, promueve espacios de debate, análisis comparativos, aproximaciones al enfoque de desarrollo urbano orientado al transporte sostenible (DOT) y ejercicios de medición de las plusvalías y sus posibilidades de movilización, al tiempo que analiza los principales instrumentos de planificación y gestión en el marco de la financiación basada en el valor del suelo. Adicionalmente, se realizará una visita técnica para observar proyectos de movilidad, gestión del suelo y vivienda de interés social en la ciudad de Bogotá. El periodo de postulación terminará el 5 de abril de 2026.

Ver detalles de la convocatoria.


Detalles

Fecha(s)
Mayo 31, 2026 - Junio 5, 2026
Período de postulación
Marzo 2, 2026 - Abril 5, 2026
Idioma
español
Tipo de certificado o crédito
Lincoln Institute certificate
Enlaces relacionados

Palabras clave

infraestructura, regulación del mercado de suelo, valor del suelo, gobierno local, salud fiscal municipal, planificación, finanzas públicas, políticas públicas, desarrollo orientado a transporte, desarrollo urbano

2026 C. Lowell Harriss Dissertation Fellowship Program

Fecha límite para la inscripción: March 2, 2026 at 6:00 PM

The Lincoln Institute’s C. Lowell Harriss Dissertation Fellowship Program assists PhD students whose research complements the institute’s interest in property valuation and taxation. The program provides an important link between the institute’s educational mission and its research objectives by supporting scholars early in their careers. See more information on current and previous fellowship recipients and projects.


Detalles

Fecha límite para la inscripción
March 2, 2026 at 6:00 PM

Palabras clave

tributación del valor del suelo, tributación inmobilaria, valuación

Curso

Diplomado en Estudios Socio-Jurídicos del Suelo Urbano 

Enero 22, 2026 - Mayo 15, 2026

Ofrecido en español


Por novena ocasión, el Instituto Lincoln de Políticas de Suelo y el Instituto de Investigaciones Sociales de la UNAM ofrecen este diplomado, reconocido por su calidad académica y su impacto en la reflexión y la gestión del suelo urbano en América Latina. 

A lo largo de sus ediciones, el programa ha formado a más de 220 profesionales que hoy conforman una red de alto valor, generadora de alianzas estratégicas en los ámbitos académico, laboral y social. Estas colaboraciones han contribuido a la propuesta de políticas, programas y normas territoriales inspiradas en los debates y aprendizajes del diplomado. 

Más que un espacio formativo, este programa es una comunidad activa de conocimiento, que mantiene el diálogo entre generaciones a través de actividades híbridas durante todo el año. 

Le extendemos nuestra invitación para formar parte de esta red latinoamericana comprometida con el estudio, la gestión y la transformación del suelo urbano, y a consultar cuidadosamente los detalles de la convocatoria.  

Consulte y difunda la Convocatoria 2026 del Diplomado en estudios socio-jurídicos del suelo urbano. 


Detalles

Fecha(s)
Enero 22, 2026 - Mayo 15, 2026
Fecha límite para postular
January 5, 2026 at 12:00 AM
Idioma
español

Palabras clave

mitigación climática, economía, vivienda, inequidad, Ley de suelo, regulación del mercado de suelo, planificación de uso de suelo, valor del suelo, temas legales, salud fiscal municipal, tributación inmobilaria, finanzas públicas, políticas públicas, tributación

Reverdecimiento urbano equitativo

Por Jon Gorey, Julio 22, 2025

A fines de la década de 1980, Anne Whiston Spirn lanzó un “proyecto de investigación en acción” diseñado para explorar cómo las pequeñas intervenciones en el paisaje podrían ayudar a restaurar la naturaleza y reconstruir la comunidad en barrios de bajos ingresos en el oeste de Filadelfia. Se suponía que el proyecto duraría cuatro años. Casi cuatro décadas después, el Proyecto de Paisaje del Oeste de Filadelfia (West Philadelphia Landscape Project) sigue vigente, y ha cosechado esperanza y un entendimiento otorgado por la experiencia.

En Mill Creek y otros barrios de Filadelfia, el trabajo conjunto de estudiantes, residentes, paisajistas y otros actores locales creó focos estratégicos de diseño ecológico, por ejemplo, al convertir lotes abandonados en jardines comunitarios y espacios verdes que absorben las inundaciones, y luego vincularon esos proyectos al plan de estudios en las escuelas locales. Este enfoque liderado por la comunidad atrajo la atención nacional. Más cerca de su origen, el programa ayudó a inspirar el plan Green City, Clean Waters (Ciudad Verde, Aguas Limpias) de Filadelfia, a través del cual la ciudad instaló infraestructura verde, como acequias con árboles, jardines pluviales y extensiones con vegetación para aguas pluviales en las aceras en más de 1200 hectáreas de tierras públicas y privadas en toda la ciudad y, de esta forma, se redujo la escorrentía anual de aguas pluviales hacia los cursos de agua locales en más de once mil millones de litros.

En las comunidades históricamente desatendidas, donde los residentes deben tolerar una carga desproporcionada de riesgos climáticos y contaminación, agregar espacios verdes parecería una medida lógica para abordar desigualdades de larga data. Sin embargo, ocurrió algo más cuando el Proyecto de Paisaje del Oeste de Filadelfia tomó impulso. A mediados de la década de 2010, los precios de la vivienda en barrios como Mill Creek comenzaron a subir, al igual que el interés de los inversionistas institucionales, que tienden a aumentar el valor de los alquileres con mayor agresividad que los propietarios que no son inversores, según una investigación del Banco de la Reserva Federal de Filadelfia. Al parecer, todas esas zonas verdes estaban convirtiendo al área más deseable para los inversionistas y más costosa para vivir.

Los espacios verdes no solo filtran y enfrían el aire circundante, sino que también absorben aguas pluviales y mejoran la salud física y mental. También está comprobado que aumentan el valor de las propiedades cercanas.

El aumento del valor puede resultar ventajoso para los propietarios de viviendas en barrios que han pasado años sin recibir inversiones, un fenómeno sistemático en las comunidades de color. Pero si bien beneficia a los propietarios, puede ejercer presión de desplazamiento sobre los inquilinos. En ciudades como Atlanta, Baltimore, Charlotte, Filadelfia y Seattle, alrededor de la mitad de las familias son inquilinas, mientras que en ciudades como Boston, Chicago, Los Ángeles y Nueva York esta cifra es de casi dos tercios.

“Me resultó impactante… la rapidez con la que se reemplazaron la desinversión, las plazas disponibles y los edificios abandonados con especulación y desarrollo”, menciona Spirn, que era profesora en la Universidad de Pensilvania cuando comenzó el proyecto en el oeste de Filadelfia y, ahora, enseña en el MIT. “En este momento, las comunidades en las que he trabajado, como Mill Creek, están bajo el asedio de especuladores y desarrolladores”.

Reverdecimiento sin desplazamiento

En un estudio de 28 ciudades norteamericanas y europeas que realizaron grandes inversiones en espacios verdes o adaptación climática entre 1990 y 2016, se concluyó que el reverdecimiento urbano fue un factor principal o contribuyente en el aburguesamiento de diversos sectores de la ciudad en 17 lugares. En Boston, Denver y otras ciudades, el reverdecimiento fue solo un factor que contribuyó al aburguesamiento. En lugares como Atlanta, Copenhague y Montreal, el reverdecimiento urbano se consideró el principal impulsor del aburguesamiento.

Por ejemplo, entre 2011 y 2015, el valor de las viviendas en un rango de 0,8 kilómetros de la vía verde Beltline de Atlanta, un circuito de 35 kilómetros de senderos y parques que conectan 45 barrios de la ciudad, aumentó entre un 18 y un 27 por ciento más que las propiedades en otras partes de la ciudad.

“Hasta que el reverdecimiento urbano sea tan generalizado que no haya un diferencial de precios por su presencia, tendremos que enfrentar el hecho de que es una comodidad a la que la gente responde con una suba de precios”, menciona Amy Cotter, directora de Sostenibilidad Urbana del Instituto Lincoln de Políticas de Suelo.

Existe una fuerte asociación entre los parques y las vías verdes a gran escala y el aburguesamiento, explica James Connolly, profesor asistente de Planificación en la Universidad de Columbia Británica y coautor del estudio de aburguesamiento verde y un documento de trabajo encargado por el Instituto Lincoln. “Es una comodidad muy visible y, al igual que ocurre con cualquier otra comodidad tan visible, como una nueva estación de transporte o un nuevo desarrollo de alto perfil, el reverdecimiento cambia los mercados inmobiliarios de la zona”, indica.

Nueva construcción en el popular circuito Beltline de Atlanta en 2015. Entre 2011 y 2015, el valor de las viviendas en un rango de 0,8 kilómetros de la vía verde de 35 kilómetros aumentó entre un 18 y un 27 por ciento más que las viviendas en otras partes de la ciudad. Crédito: Daniel Lobo vía Flickr.

Los grandes proyectos como parques y vías verdes no son los únicos esfuerzos de reverdecimiento urbano que pueden impulsar el aburguesamiento. Los inversionistas y desarrolladores prestan atención a las inversiones municipales. E incluso las intervenciones más pequeñas, como jardines de lluvia y árboles en la calle, pueden interpretarse como indicios de un cambio cultural o económico.

“Algunas de estas intervenciones de infraestructura verde más pequeñas son solo pequeños jardines de lluvia o elementos ecológicos en la acera”, menciona Connolly; es decir, no significa que los mercados inmobiliarios estén reaccionando a una nueva comodidad de gran envergadura que está cambiando la dinámica de la comunidad. Pero al considerarlas en conjunto, “todas estas intervenciones diferentes pueden comenzar a producir una especie de cambio en la percepción”, agrega Connolly. “En Filadelfia, por ejemplo, podemos ver evidencias, ya que, al sumar las intervenciones de muy pequeña escala, se observa un alto nivel de correlación con los cambios en la dinámica racial y los cambios en el aburguesamiento en la ciudad”.

Todo esto significa que los residentes de comunidades históricamente marginadas pueden desarrollar un escepticismo justificado hacia los nuevos proyectos verdes, incluso cuando las intervenciones tienen la intención de mejorar un barrio o brindarle una mejor protección de los riesgos climáticos como las inundaciones o el calor extremo.

Durante los quince años posteriores a la apertura de Schuylkill River Park en el sur de Filadelfia, la mediana de los precios de las viviendas aumentó un 1.120 por ciento, la residencia en el barrio pasó de ser mayoritariamente negra a ser mayoritariamente blanca, y las instituciones culturales locales, como la Iglesia Bautista New Light Beulah, consideraron necesario cerrar o reubicarse, escriben Sterling Johnson, candidato a doctorado en la Universidad de Temple, y Kimberley Thomas, profesora asociada de Geografía en Temple. “Puede que los términos hayan cambiado desde principios del siglo XX, pero la administración medioambiental sigue pareciendo colonización para muchas personas negras de bajos ingresos”.

Schuykill River Park de Filadelfia en 2011. Entre 2000 y 2014, el valor de las viviendas en el área aumentó un 1.120 por ciento a medida que aumentaron el desarrollo y la propiedad de los inversionistas. Crédito: aimintang/iStock No publicado a través de Getty Images.

Y en Detroit, alrededor de una cuarta parte de los residentes se negaron a aceptar árboles gratuitos en las calles frente a sus casas: no por no entender los beneficios del dosel de árboles, sino debido a la persistente desconfianza en la ciudad, según un estudio realizado por Christine Carmichael, en ese momento, en la Universidad de Vermont.

Si las ciudades no reconocen y tratan con seriedad el potencial de desplazamiento causado por las intervenciones ecológicas, agrega Connolly, “lo que logramos es un apoyo político muy reducido para el reverdecimiento urbano, ya que muchas personas terminan pensando que no tiene sentido apoyarlo porque no está dirigido a ellas”.

Formulación coordinada de políticas 

La tensión entre el reverdecimiento urbano destinado a mejorar la calidad de vida y el desplazamiento económico que suele resultar es un problema que exige una planificación y formulación coordinadas de políticas. “No se puede tener seguridad residencial a expensas de la seguridad medioambiental, y no se puede tener seguridad medioambiental a expensas de la seguridad residencial”, explica Connolly. “Estos dos elementos no son negociables entre sí: ambos son necesarios”. También señala que el reverdecimiento urbano no siempre conduce al desplazamiento; en casi la mitad de las ciudades estudiadas, el impacto de el reverdecimiento en el aburguesamiento fue leve o nulo.

Una ciudad puede usar diversas herramientas de política específicas para ayudar a mitigar el desplazamiento al reverdecer un barrio. De hecho, las soluciones son similares al margen de la causa de la presión del desplazamiento, pero deben aplicarse en conjunto con las intervenciones verdes (o incluso antes).

Los fideicomisos de suelo comunitarios, por ejemplo, pueden ayudar a los residentes a obtener participación en la propiedad del barrio y garantizar la capacidad de pago permanente de la vivienda. Las medidas de estabilización de alquileres pueden controlar los aumentos de los precios del alquiler, por lo que los inquilinos no deben abandonar la comunidad por cuestiones de precio. Las leyes de “oportunidad de compra”, como las de Washington, DC, permiten que los inquilinos o las ciudades tengan prioridad para comprar una casa si un propietario decide vender. La zonificación inclusiva, los requisitos de vivienda asequible, las tarifas de los desarrolladores y otras herramientas también pueden ayudar a aliviar la presión del desplazamiento.

“No es solo un elemento, sino un conjunto de herramientas”, explica Isabelle Anguelovski, profesora de investigación de la Universidad Autónoma de Barcelona y directora del Laboratorio de Barcelona para la Justicia Medioambiental Urbana y la Sostenibilidad (BCNUEJ), coautora del estudio y documento de trabajo sobre el aburguesamiento junto con Connolly.

“Depende tanto de los impuestos como de los incentivos”, continúa. “Vancouver tiene un impuesto a las viviendas vacías. Algunos estados, como Washington, tienen control de alquileres a un nivel estatal más amplio. Portland, Oregón, implementó lo que se denomina política de “derecho al retorno”, que está dirigida a residentes que sufrieron desplazamiento debido al aburguesamiento en las últimas décadas o la renovación urbana en la década de 1960”.

Se pueden aplicar otros impuestos y tarifas para desarrolladores a fin de construir viviendas sociales, generar subsidios para el alquiler o apoyar a pequeños comercios minoristas locales que, de lo contrario, podrían verse obligados a abandonar la comunidad que habitan hace un largo tiempo por cuestiones de precio. “A nivel local, si los impuestos se asignan con claridad de la manera correcta, las ciudades pueden usar esos fondos para comprar terrenos vacantes o edificios abandonados y transformarlos en viviendas sociales y públicas”.

Mientras tanto, los incentivos pueden tomar la forma de bonificaciones de densidad, que permiten que los desarrolladores construyan estructuras más altas de lo que se permite con la condición de que se reserven más unidades para viviendas con ingresos limitados, por ejemplo, el 30 por ciento del edificio. “A menudo, los municipios no logran obtener más del 10 o 15 por ciento”, según Anguelovski. “Sin embargo, es el turno de las ciudades en crecimiento que son atractivas para los desarrolladores. Así que no deberían tener miedo de ejercer presión sobre ellos, ya que son ciudades que tienen diversas comodidades que la gente busca”.

Reverdecimiento dirigido por la comunidad con intención de colaboración

Ninguna de estas intervenciones de desplazamiento es particularmente misteriosa o difícil de implementar, menciona Cotter. Pero hacerlo bien requiere la colaboración entre agencias que no suelen trabajar juntas: “La tarea del silvicultor urbano no es pensar en la estabilización de los alquileres”.

Es por eso que Connolly y Anguelovski, que presentaron una investigación para un próximo informe de enfoque en políticas en un taller del Instituto Lincoln en junio, indican que es esencial que las ciudades adopten un enfoque coordinado e intersectorial para el reverdecimiento. Incluso si el departamento de parques o la comisión de agua está tomando la iniciativa en una intervención ecológica en particular, explica Connolly, el esfuerzo también debería involucrar a otros departamentos clave de la ciudad, de modo que “la infraestructura ecológica se implemente con un plan de infraestructura de vivienda y transporte integrados”.

Barcelona demostró que este enfoque es posible, y quizás perfecto, durante la alcaldía de Ada Colau, indica Connolly. “Desde la oficina del alcalde, ordenaron que muchas de las agencias comenzaran a tener más conversaciones transversales sobre cómo la planificación de recursos existente se integra con otras dimensiones del gobierno y otras operaciones de la ciudad”, agrega Connolly.

Los residentes celebran la apertura de una supermanzana en Barcelona en 2023. La ciudad coordinó este ambicioso esfuerzo de sostenibilidad urbana entre múltiples agencias y aseguró la integración de la planificación y los recursos. Crédito: Ajuntament Barcelona vía Flickr.

“Es necesario intentar, en la medida de lo posible, evitar que estos dos elementos entren en conflicto, evitar que los desarrollos de la agencia de reverdecimiento dificulten que se alcancen las medidas de capacidad de pago de la vivienda”, agrega. “Solo se trata de debatir los dos temas en conjunto, lo que no significa rechazar la capacidad de pago de las viviendas ni rechazar el reverdecimiento: significa realizar esto de forma coordinada, además de incorporar elementos como apoyos sociales e infraestructura de transporte, entre otros… No digo que sea simple. Pero Barcelona tomó buenas medidas en pos de esto”.

Otro cambio más grande, casi filosófico, que Connolly cree que las ciudades deberían lograr es alejarse de un enfoque “oportunista” de el reverdecimiento, en el que las ciudades con objetivos climáticos o medioambientales específicos aprovechan cualquier oportunidad que tengan para agregar intervenciones verdes para avanzar en esos objetivos. Si existe la oportunidad de plantar algunos árboles o ponerlos en algún parque, lo hacen por reflejo, explica Connolly. “Pero esas oportunidades se crean por ciertas razones que, en general, están asociadas con el desarrollo. Entonces, si solo se tiene un enfoque oportunista para el reverdecimiento, siempre se vinculará el reverdecimiento con estos ciclos de desarrollo y ahí radica un desafío”. En cambio, recomienda adoptar un enfoque más intencional y general. “Incluso si no hay una oportunidad para el reverdecimiento, ¿cómo podemos crearla por nuestra cuenta?”.

Spirn, del Proyecto de Paisaje del Oeste de Filadelfia, que ha pasado gran parte de los últimos cinco años trabajando con sus alumnos en estrategias para prevenir el desplazamiento relacionado con el reverdecimiento urbano, está de acuerdo: “Es muy importante empezar a pensar en cómo ayudar a las personas a permanecer en sus hogares antes de comenzar a construir nuevos proyectos de infraestructura verde”, concluye. Y agrega que cualquier estrategia que una ciudad emplee en este sentido debe centrarse en los residentes. “La infraestructura verde debe ser algo más que el reverdecimiento. Tiene que tratarse de las personas”.

A algunos les preocupa que este enfoque, el reverdecimiento con más intención y con más aportes e intervención de los residentes empoderados de la comunidad, no pueda seguirle el ritmo a la urgencia de la crisis climática. “Existe la preocupación de que ser equitativos y respetar la autodeterminación implicará una peligrosa ralentización, y lo entiendo, pero también rechazo esa suposición”, indica Cotter. “Es un imperativo de la equidad que abordemos el cambio climático lo más rápido posible, porque las personas que más sufrirán son las poblaciones que siempre quedan marginadas, las mismas personas cuya autodeterminación y participación se ha visto socavada por los sistemas de racismo estructural”.

Si las comunidades pueden liderar la toma de decisiones frente al cambio climático, continúa Cotter: “No creo que sean más lentas. Creo que tendrían una perspectiva clara de lo que debe suceder, lo harían más rápido y encontrarían soluciones que en verdad reflejen las condiciones y las necesidades locales”.


Jon Gorey es redactor del Instituto Lincoln de Políticas de Suelo.

Imagen principal: Una calle residencial en el oeste de Filadelfia.Crédito:Ciudad de Filadelfia.