Shaping Water-Resilient Agricultural Futures

This toolkit distills lessons from a pilot series of community-based workshops in rural agricultural regions of the Colorado River Basin that used exploratory scenario planning (XSP) to help local stakeholders prepare for uncertain economic, social, and climate changes affecting water and agriculture. Aimed at planning professionals, community leaders, and decision-makers, it offers step-by-step guidance reinforced with real-world examples to demonstrate how a locally grounded planning approach can build consensus about water resilience strategies. It is particularly designed to support communities confronting mounting pressures of water scarcity, climate change, and
drought in their watersheds and agricultural economies.

Developed through a 2022 Call for Letters of Interest as part of the Exploratory Scenario Planning for Water-Resilient Agriculture project, the workshops engaged communities from three agricultural regions in the Colorado River Basin: Mesa County, Colorado; the Sulphur Springs Valley in Cochise County, Arizona; and the San Juan River Basin in San Juan County, New Mexico, all of which are dealing with escalating water challenges. These regions were selected based on their expressed interest, demonstrated need, and the presence of local champions committed to leading XSP efforts in partnership within their communities.

The workshops were structured around interactive XSP methods that helped communities explore a range of future possibilities. The experiences captured in this toolkit illustrate how XSP can be a powerful framework for bringing stakeholders together to discuss water challenges and opportunities in established agricultural regions, fostering
collaborative, locally driven solutions. The planning techniques in this project were intentionally designed to reflect the distinct cultural contexts, needs, values, histories, and priorities of each community. This toolkit synthesizes those experiences into adaptable processes and practices that can be applied more broadly.