Una versión más actualizada de este artículo está disponible como parte del capítulo 7 del CD-ROM Perspectivas urbanas: Temas críticos en políticas de suelo de América Latina.

Durante la última década, el autobús de transporte rápido (BRT, por sus siglas en inglés) ha revolucionado la planificación del transporte regional en gran parte del mundo desarrollado y en vías de desarrollo. El BRT pasó de ser una opción de transporte marginal utilizada en unas pocas ciudades de Brasil y Australia a convertirse en una importante alternativa de transporte masivo para los gobiernos locales y nacionales.

El BRT no es un concepto único, sino que engloba una variedad de aplicaciones diseñadas para mejorar el nivel de servicio que proporciona el transporte masivo en autobús ofreciendo movilidad de forma económica y cómoda, similar a la que ofrece el ferrocarril urbano (Wright y Hook 2007, 11). Se basa en mejoras coordinadas en tecnología, infraestructura y equipamiento para conseguir un servicio de calidad (Oficina General de Cuentas de los Estados Unidos 2001). Desde el punto de vista operativo, las aplicaciones del BRT incluyen autobuses con derecho de paso exclusivo, con estaciones dedicadas y abono de tarifas previo al abordaje, o autobuses que transitan por carriles de tráfico mixtos en las principales arterias de la ciudad.

Podría afirmarse que el concepto del BRT que goza del mayor reconocimiento es la provisión de un derecho de paso exclusivo para el transporte en autobús unido a la alta frecuencia del servicio. En Sudamérica, los sistemas BRT de Curitiba, en Brasil, y Bogotá, en Colombia, integran redes de carriles dedicados al uso exclusivo de autobuses articulados de gran capacidad, con embarque y desembarque rápido.

Doce ciudades latinoamericanas, tres australianas, siete estadounidenses, ocho asiáticas y dieciocho europeas han implementado sistemas BRT. En algunas los sistemas son completos mientras que en otras son líneas únicas. También hay sistemas actualmente en construcción en todo el mundo, como en Dar es Salaam en Tanzania, Jinán en China, Bolonia en Italia, Mérida en Venezuela y Auckland en Nueva Zelandia. En marzo de 2007, GTZ, la empresa federal de desarrollo de Alemania, estimó que había al menos 27 ciudades con procesos activos de planificación de sistemas BRT, mientras que 14 sistemas estaban considerando su ampliación (Wright y Hook 2007).

El extraordinario éxito del BRT se debe en parte a la relación costo-efectividad y a la relativa flexibilidad de la inversión necesaria. Los sistemas BRT a menudo pueden transportar tantos pasajeros como los sistemas de ferrocarril urbano convencionales pero por una fracción del costo. Los sistemas BRT también son comparables a los sistemas de ferrocarril tipo metro, excepto en situaciones de muy alta demanda de pasajeros, superior a los 50.000 pasajeros por sentido y por hora. Igual que en el ferrocarril urbano, no obstante, la relación costo-efectividad del BRT se apoya en la capacidad de disponer de usos del suelo que concentran la actividad a lo largo de corredores del sistema. Por lo tanto, en la mayoría de los casos, los sistemas BRT se han construido en corredores con una demanda comprobada.

INVERSIÓN EN TRANSPORTE Y URBANIZACIÓN/REURBANIZACIÓN DEL SUELO

También resulta plausible que los sistemas BRT puedan atraer una urbanización densa que a su vez mejore el sistema BRT en el futuro. Esta conexión recíproca entre inversión en BRT y urbanización ha sido el puntal del éxito en Curitiba. A pesar de la importancia de esta conexión para la viabilidad futura y la relación costo-efectividad de los sistemas BRT, aún disponemos de poca evidencia empírica. Dado el elevado número de ciudades que están considerando la construcción de nuevas líneas BRT o la ampliación de sus sistemas, resulta crucial comprender si se producirán cambios en la urbanización del suelo a fin de prever los beneficios del sistema y poder estimar el impacto fiscal de la inversión.

La teoría económica urbana proporciona un punto de partida para explicar cómo la inversión en transporte puede influir en la urbanización o reurbanización del suelo. Se espera que tal inversión proporcione beneficios de accesibilidad a quienes se ven afectados positivamente a través de la disminución del tiempo de desplazamiento que les brinda la inversión.

En un mercado del suelo metropolitano, se espera que la inversión en transporte proporcione ventajas en cuanto a accesibilidad a los terrenos cercanos a la inversión en comparación con los terrenos relativamente poco afectados por dicha inversión. Puesto que el número de terrenos que se benefician de las mejoras de accesibilidad es limitado, se espera que las familias y las empresas que valoren tales beneficios en un mercado competitivo estén dispuestas a pagar más por las propiedades que ofrecen buen acceso que por otras propiedades, suponiendo que las demás condiciones son iguales. En este sentido, los beneficios de acceso que ofrecen las inversiones en transporte, de existir, se capitalizarán en el valor de las propiedades.

La capitalización de los beneficios de accesibilidad estimula la urbanización potenciando el atractivo de los terrenos para su urbanización o reurbanización. Los terrenos que anteriormente no eran considerados candidatos preferenciales para la inversión inmobiliaria se tornan más atractivos después del anuncio o implementación de la inversión en transporte. Por otro lado, un terreno ya urbanizado o en fase de planificación puede urbanizarse más intensivamente como resultado del aumento de valor. Esta relación es la piedra angular de la urbanización enfocada hacia el transporte (ver la Figura 7.5.3.1 en anexo).

Además del potencial urbanizable propiciado por la inversión en transporte, los aumentos en el valor del suelo también son relevantes para las finanzas municipales y la financiación de proyectos específicos. El éxito de instrumentos locales como la financiación mediante incrementos impositivos (Tax Increment Financing, o TIF) y la recuperación de plusvalías depende del valor del suelo y de los cambios de urbanización asociados al proyecto.

EL SISTEMA TRANSMILENIO DE BOGOTÁ

Bogotá, la capital de Colombia, tiene aproximadamente 6,8 millones de habitantes que ocupan aproximadamente 29.000 hectáreas de suelo urbanizado (Alcaldía Mayor de Bogotá 2003). Antes de TransMilenio, todo el transporte público de Bogotá lo proporcionaban choferes de autobús privados organizados en empresas o asociaciones, las cuales añadían o cancelaban servicios con poca supervisión por parte del gobierno. Los ingresos para los choferes del autobús estaban basados exclusivamente en las tarifas pagadas por los pasajeros, lo que provocaba una intensa competencia entre los conductores. Este marco operativo tuvo un costo social considerable, en congestión, calidad inadecuada y falta de seguridad (debido a la escasa inversión en mantenimiento de los vehículos). En 1999 los residentes experimentaban velocidades medias de desplazamiento en los autobuses de sólo 9 km/h durante el período de máxima actividad del día.

A finales de la década de 1990, preocupado por una oferta excesiva de capacidad del transporte, malas condiciones ambientales y de seguridad y velocidad decreciente de los autobuses, el gobierno municipal invirtió en una amplia red BRT, pero ésta cubría únicamente las zonas con alta demanda de transporte público. Las zonas de la ciudad donde no llegaba el BRT continuaron servidas por las asociaciones originales, y siguieron sufriendo el efecto medioambiental y de tiempo. La inversión en BRT, TransMilenio, formaba parte de una estrategia integrada más amplia para abordar los problemas de movilidad, reclamar los espacios públicos para los peatones y aumentar el acceso a zonas verdes.

TransMilenio se ha implementado en dos fases, con una tercera fase actualmente en proceso de diseño. La primera fase se planificó en 1998, se construyó en 1999–2000 y entró en funcionamiento en diciembre de 2000 en dos corredores. La segunda fase, que comenzó a funcionar a finales de 2003, añadió tres corredores más de forma paulatina. Todas las fases se han implementado a través de un exitoso acuerdo entre entidades públicas y privadas: el gobierno financia la infraestructura y supervisa las funciones de planificación a largo plazo, y las empresas privadas licitan la operación de conjuntos de rutas o zonas de influencia.

El sistema comprende una infraestructura especializada, que incluye carriles exclusivos para ofrecer una capacidad de alto servicio, estaciones de embarque cerradas y una flota racionalizada de autobuses articulados con sistema de cobro de tarifas en plataforma previo al embarque. Un servicio coordinado con rutas alimentadoras permite acceder a TransMilenio desde vecindarios alejados de la ruta del autobús. A noviembre de 2007, el sistema tenía 114 estaciones, operaba más de 1.000 autobuses y realizaba más de 1,4 millones viajes en sentido único por día a una velocidad media de 27 km/h.

Considerado como un excelente ejemplo de sistema BRT, el caso de Bogotá ilustra la transformación de corredores de transporte tradicionales afectados de una seria contaminación, problemas de seguridad y un entorno poco atractivo en un nuevo sistema que ofrece tiempos de desplazamiento considerablemente menores, menos ruido y menos emisiones de gases de efecto invernadero (Cain y col. 2006).

IMPACTO DE TRANSMILENIO SOBRE EL VALOR DEL SUELO

TransMilenio ha sido el centro de atención de al menos cuatro estudios que relacionan el valor del suelo con el sistema BRT (ver recuadro en anexo). Aunque la evidencia hasta la fecha sobre la relación entre TransMilenio y el valor de las propiedades inmobiliarias ha resultado útil, su capacidad para influir en las políticas sigue siendo limitada. Por ejemplo, estos estudios se basan en datos transversales, por lo que resulta imposible identificar si el sistema BRT produjo el cambio en el valor del suelo, o si los planificadores fijaron las estaciones en lugares que ya eran bien valorados por los residentes. Asimismo, a pesar del interés por parte de los gobernantes en ampliar los sistemas BRT establecidos y en buscar formas de financiarlos, ningún estudio ha examinado si estas ampliaciones traen beneficios a las propiedades que ya disfrutaban del servicio del BRT.

Utilizando los datos sobre los precios pedidos por las propiedades anteriores y posteriores al TransMilenio, examinamos si los precios cambiaron a medida que se ampliaba el sistema. Comprender en qué medida han cambiado los precios en Bogotá es particularmente importante dada la extensa experiencia del gobierno colombiano con los instrumentos de recuperación de plusvalías del suelo y el aumento del interés por encontrar nuevas fuentres de financiación para futuras ampliaciones del BRT (Furtado 2000).

Nuestros datos se tomaron de una muestra de propiedades en la zona metropolitana de Bogotá entre 2001 y 2006. La fase II de la ampliación del TransMilenio, abierta al público en diciembre de 2003, proporcionó el escenario del estudio. En el análisis utilizamos propiedades unifamiliares ubicadas en un radio de 1 km del sistema BRT que se beneficiaron de la ampliación del sistema de una o dos formas: obteniendo acceso local a TransMilenio gracias a la ampliación, u obteniendo acceso regional gracias al mayor alcance de la red, lo que denominamos “efecto de la red”.

Para medir los efectos de la red utilizamos propiedades que anteriormente sólo tenían acceso local a una estación de TransMilenio, pero que ahora se benefician del mayor alcance del sistema BRT. Por otro lado, las propiedades que no tenían acceso local a TransMilenio antes de diciembre de 2003, pero que también se beneficiaron de la ampliación, sirvieron para examinar los efectos del acceso local (ver Figura 7.5.3.2 en anexo).

Todas las propiedades susceptibles de verse afectadas por TransMilenio se consideran pertenecientes a zonas de intervención de acceso local o del efecto de la red. Sin embargo, puesto que los valores de las propiedades cambian de antes a después de la intervención por razones diferentes a los cambios producidos por TransMilenio, también incluimos propiedades dentro de una zona de control que no se benefició directamente de ninguna de las inversiones de TransMilenio, ni de otras inversiones en rutas para bicicleta o en parques importantes.

La estadística descriptiva simple tanto de ambas zonas de intervención como de la zona de control muestra que las propiedades dentro de la zona de efecto de la red eran más caras que las situadas en las otras dos zonas, tanto antes como después. Las propiedades de la zona de acceso local tenían precios similares a las de la zona de control, antes y después. Asimismo, los precios pedidos aumentaron en índices diferentes. Respecto de las propiedades dentro de la zona de efecto de la red, los precios aumentaron un 5,1 por ciento, en comparación con un 9,5 por ciento para las propiedades dentro de la zona de acceso local y un 7,7 por ciento para las situadas en la zona de control durante el mismo período. No obstante, estas diferencias pueden resultar engañosas, porque las propiedades ofrecidas en el mercado pueden haber sido diferentes antes y después de la intervención.

Por ejemplo, la zona de control tenía un índice considerable de usos industriales (22,7 por ciento) y terrenos vacantes (14,1 por ciento) comparada con las otras dos (zona de efecto de la red: 0,5 por ciento de uso industrial y 0,8 de terrenos vacantes; zona de acceso local: 13,7 por ciento de uso industrial y 7,0 por ciento de terrenos vacantes), aunque la densidad de población es similar. Las zonas de acceso local y de control tienen poco o ningún uso comercial, mientras que la zona de efecto de la red tiene una mezcla más homogénea de usos residenciales y comerciales. Por tanto, fue necesario un análisis de regresión para ayudar a aislar la variación de precio identificada de los efectos de la presión inflacionista, las diferencias en la oferta de vivienda o el efecto de la ampliación de TransMilenio sobre el precio de la vivienda. Nuestros modelos corrigieron además la correlación existente para las propiedades que están más juntas desde el punto de vista espacial, con respecto a las que están más distantes.

Cambios en el valor de las propiedades en las zonas con servicio BRT

Los hallazgos de nuestro modelo de regresión para la zona de efecto de la red con respecto a la zona de control mostraron una evidencia uniforme de que los precios en 2001 y 2002 eran similares entre la zona de intervención y la zona de control, sin que se produjera una apreciación. Sin embargo, detectamos una apreciación positiva uniforme en la zona de intervención desde el año 2003 en adelante, con respecto a la zona de control.

Los precios pedidos por las propiedades resultantes según las estimaciones se muestran en la Figura 7.5.3.3 (en anexo), creada mediante una simulación basada en coeficientes estimados y en su matriz de varianza-covarianza. Los valores representan una propiedad de entre 10 y 20 años de antigüedad, con todas las demás variables establecidas en sus valores medianos, variando el año de 2001 a 2006.

Las propiedades de la zona de intervención se apreciaron antes y en mayor grado que las propiedades de la zona de control. La Figura 7.5.3.4 (en anexo) muestra el cambio en los precios entre la zona de intervención y la zona de control en términos de porcentaje. El pico de precios de 2003 en la zona de intervención puede ser el resultado de la previsión de los propietarios ante la expectativa de apertura de la ampliación del sistema BRT, o de otros cambios en el submercado inmobiliario que nuestras variables no tuvieron en cuenta. Aunque se han documentado efectos similares de previsión de extensión de transporte masivo en otros lugares (Knaap, Ding y Hopkins 2001), no se ha examinado ni documentado ninguno de ellos para los efectos de la red que crean dichas ampliaciones.

Cambios en el valor de las propiedades en las zonas sin servicio del BRT

Los hallazgos de nuestro modelo de regresión para la zona de acceso local con respecto a la zona de control arrojaron una evidencia mixta de aumento de los precios en zonas que anteriormente no estaban servidas por el sistema BRT. En algunos casos (dependiendo del modelo especificado) los precios en la zona de intervención eran superiores a los de la zona de control para las propiedades ofertadas en 2001, 2003, 2004 y 2006. Otros modelos mostraron relaciones menos consistentes. Una prueba de los coeficientes correspondientes al período anterior y del coeficiente del período posterior no muestra una diferencia simultánea en los precios de las propiedades.

EL RESULTADO NETO: TRANSMILENIO Y LOS VALORES DE LAS PROPIEDADES

En general nuestros resultados dibujan un panorama mixto de apreciación como consecuencia de las ampliaciones del BRT. Por un lado, la evidencia sugiere la apreciación de las propiedades que ya estaban servidas por el BRT, puesto que también se beneficiaron de las ampliaciones. La plusvalía estimada del precio pedido por las propiedades se sitúa entre el 15 y el 20 por ciento, aunque la apreciación comenzó un año antes de inaugurarse la ampliación. Esto resulta significativo, dado que sabemos poco acerca de la magnitud potencial de estos efectos. En contraste, encontramos poca evidencia de aumento de los precios de las propiedades situadas a lo largo del corredor que anteriormente no tenía una estación local de BRT, pero que ahora recibe servicio gracias a la ampliación.

No podemos afirmar sin lugar a equívocos que los aumentos de precio fueron el resultado de la ampliación del BRT, porque podrían deberse a variaciones en el submercado inmobiliario local. Por ejemplo, la ciudad de Bogotá resurgió de una profunda recesión que terminó a principios de 2000. Si los efectos de la recesión no fueron uniformes en todos los vecindarios, es posible que eso explique el diferencial encontrado. Además, es posible que las propiedades que ya disfrutaban del servicio del BRT simplemente estaban capitalizando los beneficios de la inversión original realizada apenas cuatro años antes.

Otras explicaciones posibles de los resultados que quizá interesen a los planificadores que estén considerando hacer inversiones en BRT incluyen la cronología de los efectos. La capitalización de los beneficios de las ampliaciones del BRT puede tardar tiempo en materializarse. Nuestro análisis cubre solamente hasta tres años después de la inauguración de la ampliación, pero el impacto de los proyectos de transporte tiende a tardar más tiempo. Una explicación relacionada es que las propiedades también se aprecian ante la expectativa de la inversión en transporte, más que cuando se inauguran las ampliaciones.

También es posible que los efectos difieran en los vecindarios de cada zona estudiada. Aunque utilizamos propiedades en un radio de 1 km de una estación de BRT (la zona de influencia identificada por los planificadores locales en sus estudios de viabilidad de TransMilenio), es posible que los precios aumentaran, pero sólo para un subconjunto de propiedades (por ejemplo, las más próximas a una estación). Por último, es probable que el efecto sobre el valor del suelo derivado de la inversión pública en transporte sea diferente para las propiedades comerciales, las viviendas unifamiliares y las multifamiliares. Se han detectado aumentos en el precio de los espacios comerciales en otras ciudades (Cervero y Susantono 1999; Cervero y Duncan 2002).

No existe una forma sencilla de examinar sin ambigüedades los efectos sobre el valor del suelo derivados de la inversión pública en transporte. En este estudio, hemos intentado profundizar en el tema sobre la base de otros estudios y superar sus limitaciones. Nuestras conclusiones revelan una cierta promesa para la financiación de infraestructura a través de las plusvalías que puede crear. Pero perduran ciertas ambigüedades y advertencias que no son fáciles de resolver. Mientras tanto, los encargados de tomar decisiones seguirán explorando soluciones para las opciones de transporte masivo y las formas de financiarlas, y el sistema BRT contribuirá a abordar la acuciante necesidad de movilidad en las ciudades de todo el mundo.

Referencias

Alcaldía Mayor de Bogotá. 2008. Población por localidad. Alcaldía Mayor de Bogotá 2003. http://www.bogota.gov.co/galeria/cifraspoblaciondelocalidades1973a2003.pdf

Cain, A., G. Darido, M. R. Baltes, P. Rodríguez, and J. C. Barriors. 2006. Applicability of Bogotá’s TransMilenio BRT system to the United States. Tampa, FL: National Bus Rapid Transit Institute.

Cervero, R., and M. Duncan. 2002. Transit’s value-added: Effects of light and commuter rail services on commercial land values. Transportation Research Record 1805:8–15.

Cervero, R., and B. Susantono. 1999. Rent capitalization and transportation infrastructure in Jakarta. Review of Urban and Regional Development Studies 11 (1):11–23.

Furtado, F. 2000. Colombia: Economic aspects of the country’s land use. American Journal of Economics and Sociology, 59 (5):97–110.

Knaap, G. J., C. R. Ding, and L. D. Hopkins. 2001. Do plans matter? The effects of light rail plans on land values in station areas. Journal of Planning Education and Research 21 (1):32–39.

Mendieta, J. C., and J. A. Perdomo. 2007. Especificación y estimación de un modelo de precios hedónico espacial para evaluar el impacto de Transmilenio sobre el valor de la propiedad en Bogotá. Bogotá, Colombia: CEDE.

Munoz-Raskin, R. 2006. Walking accessibility to bus rapid transit in Latin America: Does it affect property values? The case of Bogotá, Colombia. In TRB 86th Annual Meeting Compendium of Papers CD-ROM.

Perdomo, J. A., J. C. Mendieta, C. A. Mendoza, and A. F. Baquero. 2007. Investigación sobre el impacto del proyecto de transporte masivo Transmilenio sobre el valor de las propiedades en Bogotá, Colombia. Cambridge, MA: Lincoln Institute of Land Policy.

Rodríguez, D.A., and C. Mojica. 2008. Capitalization of BRT network effects into land prices. Working paper. Cambridge, MA: Lincoln Institute of Land Policy.

Rodriguez, D. A., and F. Targa. 2004. Value of accessibility to Bogotá’s bus rapid transit system. Transport Reviews 24 (5):587–610.

U.S. General Accounting Office. 2001. Bus rapid transit shows promise. Washington, DC: General Accounting Office.

Wright, L., and W. Hook. 2007. Bus rapid transit planning guide. New York: Institute for Transportation and Development Policy.

La región de América Latina enfrenta desafíos formidables en educación y capacitación sobre temas de política, planeamiento y tributación de suelo. Por casi 20 años, el Lincoln Institute of Land Policy (Instituto Lincoln) ha estado ofreciendo programas sobre estos tópicos en 17 países de América del Sur continental y varios otros países caribeños. Estos países tienen distintos marcos legales (algunos son unitarios, otros federales) y, en conjunto, aproximadamente 400 gobiernos subnacionales (estados, provincias, departamentos, etc.), alrededor de 15.000 municipalidades que representan un amplio espectro de condiciones locales, y más de 100.000 funcionarios públicos responsables por políticas y gestión relacionada con el suelo.

Como parte del Departamento de Estudios Internacionales, el Programa para América Latina y el Caribe (LAC, por su sigla en inglés) identifica a colaboradores, convoca audiencias apropiadas, brinda asesoramiento estratégico, promueve la investigación y desarrolla materiales de educación y capacitación en temas claves relacionados con las políticas de suelo. Estos temas incluyen, entre otros, la mitigación de la informalidad rampante, el refuerzo del autofinanciamiento a través de la recuperación de plusvalías generadas por inversiones en obras públicas, el mejor desempeño del impuesto predial y el impacto de las intervenciones públicas.

Para alcanzar a esta audiencia tan diversa, el Programa LAC ha desarrollado una amplia gama de cursos, seminarios y conferencias presenciales para profesionales, incluyendo a funcionarios políticos de la rama legislativa y ejecutiva y su personal técnico senior, como también a académicos, estudiantes universitarios y ciudadanos. Tradicionalmente, la mayoría de estos programas consistió en cursos de desarrollo profesional de una semana de duración, ofrecidos una vez por año, cada uno a 30 a 50 participantes internacionales de varios países, o conferencias nacionales o internacionales ad hoc diseñadas para cientos de participantes. No obstante, la diversidad que caracteriza a la región latinoamericana nos impide diseñar un modelo de instrucción presencial para las distintas jurisdicciones, y la limitación de recursos frecuentemente impide que las instituciones públicas y privadas puedan enviar a su personal a las grandes ciudades donde normalmente ocurren estos eventos.

A medida que los programas se fueron difundiendo y la cantidad de funcionarios públicos que deseaban participar en ellos fue creciendo, el Lincoln Institute tuvo que reevaluar su estrategia para poder cumplir con su mandato de mejorar la calidad del debate sobre temas de políticas de suelo por medio de programas educativos. En consecuencia, además de continuar con los programas presenciales para audiencias específicas en ciertas ciudades y países, a partir del 2004 el Programa LAC comenzó a desarrollar a partir de 2004 otros formatos y medios educativos para poder informar a los dirigentes políticos y profesionales claves, tanto en el gobierno como en instituciones académicas, interesados en temas de políticas de suelo urbano, pero que no podían participar en estos eventos singulares.

Estas ofertas de Educación a Distancia (EAD) del LAC están todavía en desarrollo, tienen formatos diversos, como cursos de autoestudio; cursos con moderadores, que incorporan múltiples medios de comunicación interactivos; bien como cursos de posgrado desarrollados en colaboración con universidades latinoamericanas y otras instituciones. Estos cursos usan una gran variedad de herramientas y materiales, desde simples documentos escritos que se pueden descargar, hasta plataformas multimedios, como Moodle y eTEACH.

Estrategias pedagógicas

Una vez halladas las soluciones tecnológicas para diseminar materiales educativos, quedaba por resolver el problema pedagógico. La estrategia adoptada por el Programa LAC en educación a distancia se representa como un triángulo invertido (ver Figura 1 en anexo). Los usuarios pueden permanecer al nivel general, tomando cursos de autoestudio para obtener conocimientos relativamente básicos sobre temas transversales, o pueden ahondar en un área temática con cursos moderados o programas universitarios especializados a nivel de graduado.

Trabajando de cerca con expertos pedagógicos, y guiados por el mandado del Instituto Lincoln, el personal del LAC y el cuerpo académico adjunto fue desarrollando gradualmente un modelo de EAD basado en los principios del constructivismo, una corriente didáctica desarrollada por el psicólogo suizo Jean Piaget, que postula que los seres humanos generan conocimiento y significado a partir de sus propias experiencias. El constructivismo se contrapone al positivismo, donde el conocimiento científico se adquiere por medio de la afirmación positiva de teorías a través de métodos científicos estrictos, como las investigaciones cuantitativas. Dada la diversidad y complejidad de los temas involucrados en las políticas de suelo, el Programa LAC ha explorado ambos enfoques para crear sus cursos de educación a distancia. En este contexto, el constructivismo se aplica más frecuentemente al conocimiento asociado con alternativas políticas, mientras que el positivismo se usa en cursos más técnicos que se basan en la aplicación de herramientas.

El Programa LAC organiza cursos en el citado marco constructivista, alentando una amplia discusión sobre temas relacionados con las políticas de suelo urbano, sin ideas preconcebidas. Los cursos de educación a distancia en la plataforma Moodle permiten crear comunidades virtuales y una amplia gama de entornos de intercambio y discusión, donde los participantes de diversos países de América Latina contribuyen con sus inquietudes y experiencias, que pueden ser muy distintas de las del cuerpo académico. El Programa LAC ofrece también cursos fundamentales para el desarrollo de herramientas cuantitativas y geoestadísticas utilizadas en las políticas de suelo urbano, aplicando en este caso los principios del positivismo y el aprendizaje práctico.

A lo largo de los años, hemos desarrollado dos productos con distintas características, aplicaciones y objetivos: cursos de acceso restringido (cursos con moderadores, o a nivel de posgrado y con un componente presencial); y cursos de autoestudio, de acceso libre e irrestrictos. . Todos estos cursos en línea se ofrecen en español a profesionales de instituciones públicas y privadas involucradas en temas urbanos.

Cursos moderados y de autoestudio

Los cursos moderados fueron nuestra primera opción para resolver el desafío de informar y preparar a los funcionarios públicos para ampliar el alcance de sus alternativas políticas, porque brindan una base educativa sólida por medio de lecturas, deliberaciones y reflexión. Todos los cursos moderados son gratuitos; sin embargo, los postulantes se seleccionan por medio de un proceso de admisión competitivo. Las clases tienen alrededor de 45 participantes cada una, y normalmente incluyen por lo menos a un representante de cada país de la región. Los cursos se desarrollan a lo largo de nueve semanas, cada uno con un profesor designado que es responsable por enseñar y/u orientar a los participantes; la tercera, quinta y novena semanas se reservan para que los estudiantes puedan completar o ponerse al día con tareas o cuestionarios específicos.

Estos cursos utilizan la plataforma Moodle, que ofrece excelentes resultados de desempeño y facilidad de uso. Se usan tres herramientas principales.

• Foros de discusión, que se consideran los motores del curso. El profesor actúa como un facilitador comunitario virtual y propone un tema diario de discusión, como por ejemplo: ¿Cuáles son los factores principales del deficiente desempeño del impuesto predial como fuente de ingresos en las jurisdicciones latinoamericanas? o ¿Cuáles son las ventajas de descentralizar a los gobiernos locales (municipalidades) la responsabilidad de establecer las tasas de impuestos prediales? Los participantes frecuentemente sugieren otros temas que enriquecen y aceleran los procesos de adquisición y/o reconstrucción del conocimiento.
• Tareas, que consisten en elaborar informes sobre temas de políticas de suelo. Estas tareas pueden ser un análisis de un marco legal, una estrategia para recolectar y analizar datos de los mercados de suelo, o un mapa procesado en un entorno SIG. El informe se carga en la plataforma y los profesores lo leen y califican en la semana siguiente.
• Cuestionarios de opción múltiple. Se usan principalmente como autoevaluación y para medir el conocimiento de los participantes sobre los materiales de lectura asignados o para respaldar los foros de discusión y las tareas.

El criterio mínimo para aprobar el curso y recibir un certificado del Instituto Lincoln, es completar las tareas y los cuestionarios y participar activamente en las deliberaciones.

El Programa LAC ofrece nueve cursos de educación a distancia con temática que presentan cierta superposición (ver Figura 2 en anexo). Una serie de cursos incluye Financiamiento de ciudades con suelo urbano, que promueve un examen crítico de las diversas políticas de financiamiento de ciudades por medio del suelo urbano; e Impuesto predial y financiamiento urbano, que brinda un análisis de los principios legales, políticos y económicos de la tributación del suelo como instrumento beneficioso para el desarrollo urbano. Este curso sobre tributación se superpone con otros dos: Aplicación del catastro multifinalitario en la definición de políticas de suelo urbano, que abarca temas de la tenencia del suelo, geotecnologías y sistemas de valuación de suelo urbano utilizados en distintas jurisdicciones latinoamericanas; y Técnicas de valuación de inmuebles urbanos, que presenta los métodos y principios básicos de las valuaciones comerciales, así como la valuación masiva de propiedades urbanas.

Una segunda serie de cursos incluye Dimensiones jurídicas de las políticas de suelo, que ofrece un análisis de los enfoques y categorías principales utilizadas por los sistemas legales urbanos en América Latina, con una revisión de los aspectos teóricos y prácticos relevantes para administradores públicos urbanos. Este curso se intercepta con Gestión de los mercados de suelo urbano, que brinda un examen de la estructura, función y regulación de los mercados y su relación con los problemas económicos, sociales y medioambientales de las ciudades.

Las interconexiones técnicas entre estas dos series son provistas por dos cursos adicionales: Técnicas de análisis de mercados de suelo urbano, que analiza los principios básicos de economía del suelo y bienes raíces, y la aplicación de métodos empíricos; y Sistemas de Información Geográfica (SIG) aplicados a estudios urbanos, que cubre los principios básicos de SIG, la estructura de bases de datos alfanuméricas y herramientas cartográficas útiles para los estudios urbanos. La mayoría de estos temas y técnicas se cubren transversalmente en el curso Definición de las políticas de suelo en pequeñas ciudades, introducido en el primer semestre de 2010.

Con el correr de los años se han experimentado distintas configuraciones de personal académico y administrativo. En 2009 se implementó una estructura de coordinación simple pero eficiente, donde el personal senior del Instituto Lincoln se responsabiliza por las decisiones estratégicas en materia de cursos y producción de materiales, y un grupo distinguido de profesores adjuntos, apoyados por asistentes que se comunican directamente con los participantes y brindan instrucciones para la carga de materiales, tareas y cuestionarios. Para poder mantener el crecimiento de la diversidad temática y la demanda de inscripción para los cursos de EAD, en 2010 se incrementó la cantidad de personal académico de 22 a 52, y se desarrolló un curso especial para todos los maestros y asistentes, buscando asegurar que todos se desempeñen al mismo ritmo y dentro del mismo marco pedagógico de educación a distancia y uso de herramientas Moodle.

Otra respuesta al aumento continuo de la demanda ha sido el desarrollo de cursos de autoestudio como alternativa y complemento a los cursos moderados, que son más intensivos. Los cursos de autoestudio utilizan materiales multimedia, muchas veces consistentes en videos grabados en clases presenciales. Estos productos también se están adaptando para que puedan ser descargados en forma gratuita, especialmente para el uso de instituciones privadas y no gubernamentales, pequeñas ciudades y establecimientos educativos.

Materiales de los cursos

Los cursos de educación a distancia del LAC están respaldados tanto por materiales escritos como audiovisuales. Los primeros, generalmente distribuidos en formato PDF, se seleccionan para que el estudiante pueda realizar una lectura, análisis y reflexión individual. Incluyen documentos escritos por los docentes, artículos de acceso público en la Internet y capítulos de libros e informes publicados por el Instituto Lincoln y otras fuentes. En ciertos cursos se comparte legislación y documentos públicos de varios países para facilitar los estudios comparativos de casos.

Algunos materiales, sobre todo aquellos escritos por el personal académico del curso, se han compilado como libros electrónicos que se pueden descargar libremente, pudiendo algunos capítulos ser aprovechados por los participantes del curso. Los cuatro libros electrónicos producidos a la fecha (en español o portugués) también están a disposición de usuarios interesados.

Una variedad de materiales audiovisuales brinda información adicional y facilita la comprensión, usando distintas tecnologías de producción y uso, pero con el objetivo común de acelerar el conocimiento del programa de estudios central. Las ofertas multimedios iniciales eran simplemente videos de profesores enseñando una clase, alternados con diapositivas de PowerPoint para crear la atmósfera de una disertación presencial. Los videos se producen con tecnología digital de alta calidad, y se usan tanto para los cursos de autoestudio como los cursos con moderador. Algunos videos se filman en un estudio y otros se graban en vivo durante un curso presencial programado.

La incorporación de audioclases ha realzado aún más la experiencia de educación a distancia. Los profesores de países de la región graban sus voces usando un software gratuito, siguiendo las instrucciones de los administradores del curso. Los archivos de audio y las diapositivas de PowerPoint correspondientes se envían al equipo de edición, que luego crea la audioclase. La porción sonora de las clases multimedia (tanto de video como audio) se convierte en archivos de audio MP3.

Las clases de audio y video también se transcriben con dos objetivos: para brindar acceso a las clases a las personas con impedimentos auditivos, y para crear el material de base que luego se traduce para doblar o subtitular. Además, las transcripciones son utilizadas por el personal académico como base para escribir los capítulos de los libros electrónicos. Estos recursos sirven para informar a los participantes de cursos moderados, y están además a disposición del público en general en el sitio web del Instituto Lincoln.

El trabajo con educación a distancia exige una constante actualización de información. A medida que cambian los temas y el contexto de las políticas de suelo, el ámbito educativo debe adaptarse rápidamente, incorporando nuevas herramientas, métodos y estrategias. En la actualidad estamos considerando la implementación de un entorno Second Life, una de las opciones más populares y económicas de educación virtual para el aprendizaje colaborativo. Second Life establece un entorno académico con aulas, áreas de reunión, bibliotecas y otros recursos. Los participantes crean una imagen virtual de sí mismos (un avatar) que se puede desplazar en estos espacios virtuales para acceder a materiales bibliográficos, asistir a clases e interactuar con los avatares de otros participantes. En la actualidad, estamos diseñando un entorno de aprendizaje virtual y preparando al personal académico para que pueda trabajar con él, usando sus propios avatares para recorrerlo.

El vínculo entre educación a distancia y educación presencial

Al experimentar con varias combinaciones de aprendizaje a distancia e instrucción presencial, el personal del Programa LAC ha descubierto que éste puede ser un modelo productivo y prometedor. Durante varios años hemos desarrollado cursos con moderador personalizados como prerrequisitos para los cursos presenciales de una semana en América Latina. Ahora estamos comenzando a usar también los cursos de autoestudio existentes como etapa preparatoria para los participantes. Esto nos permite hacer un mejor uso del tiempo de clase y reducir al mínimo las sesiones diseñadas para nivelar el conocimiento en términos de conceptos, terminología y principios básicos durante los cursos de desarrollo profesional de una semana de duración.

Como alternativa a los cursos de nueve semanas de duración, hemos formado también alianzas con varias universidades e instituciones no gubernamentales para implementar cursos de posgrado que combinan la instrucción en el aula con contenido de educación a distancia. Estos cursos utilizan la misma infraestructura básica de educación a distancia, profesores y materiales utilizados en los cursos con moderador. La mayoría de estos cursos de especialización, después de haber sido implementados inicialmente con el respaldo del Instituto Lincoln, continúan siendo ofrecidos por las instituciones aliadas propiamente dichas. Algunos de estos cursos fueron desarrollados en Colombia y México, así como en la República Dominicana y Bolivia, donde el Programa LAC no había trabajado antes, estableciendo así alianzas que han redundado en relaciones sostenidas.

Este modelo combinado se inició con varias iniciativas que congregaron a grupos selectos de ex alumnos de cursos en línea previos, y ha continuado como parte de dos cursos de especialización – Planeamiento y financiación urbana, y Catastros urbanos y la valuación de suelo – que concluyen sus segmentos de aprendizaje a distancia con sesiones presenciales de una semana de duración. Nuestras instituciones aliadas tienen planeado ofrecer los cursos regularmente, con respaldo continuado del Instituto Lincoln en la forma de materiales de clase y estructura de plataformas de educación a distancia.

Logros y desafíos restantes

Hemos superado una serie de desafíos iniciales, y ahora podemos enumerar los siguientes resultados exitosos de la iniciativa de educación a distancia del Programa LAC:

• Aumento en la cantidad de participantes por país, incluso en jurisdicciones remotas que había sido difícil alcanzar por medio de cursos tradicionales (ver Figura 3 en anexo);
• Mayor entendimiento de las interrelaciones entre los diversos temas de políticas de suelo urbano (ver Figura 2 en anexo);
• Mayor comprensión de las realidades nacionales, regionales y locales de cada país, gracias a la recolección y actualización de grandes cantidades de datos en los foros de deliberación y de los informes de tareas requeridos como parte de los cursos con moderador;
• Nuevos cursos, como Definición de las políticas de suelo en pequeñas ciudades, e implementación de cursos de autoestudio para complementar los cursos con moderador y presenciales;
• Integración de varios académicos del Programa LAC al ámbito de enseñanza de educación a distancia, a pesar de su escepticismo inicial;
• Aumento en el volumen de material de estudio escrito y audiovisual;
• Estructuración de una matriz temática (árbol) de políticas de suelo urbano y sus interdependencias;
• Cultivo de una segunda generación de personal académico y de investigación que son ex alumnos de programas educativos anteriores; y
• Generación de nuevos proyectos de investigación para aportar materiales en forma oportuna al programa de estudio, casos de estudio, libros electrónicos y otro contenido didáctico.

A pesar de estos avances y experiencias adquiridas con el correr de los años, quedan algunos desafíos:

• Identificar y desarrollar una estrategia más amplia de diseminación para alcanzar a aquellos interesados en temas de políticas de suelo urbano;
• Mejorar y definir los procesos de selección y otras estrategias para identificar a los postulantes que están más interesados y comprometidos, para reducir la tasa de deserción en los cursos gratuitos con moderador;
• Aumentar el espectro de perspectivas de los dirigentes políticos en América Latina, ofreciendo más temas y la oportunidad de participar en más de un curso; e
• Implementar cursos y seminarios en un entorno mundial virtual 3D, como también nuevos tipos de seminarios virtuales “presenciales” usando avatares.

Consideraciones finales

Los resultados obtenidos por el Programa LAC del Instituto Lincoln en los últimos seis años demuestran que la plataforma de educación a distancia funciona en forma confiable, y que podemos llegar a más personas y lugares a través de una combinación de distintos tipos de cursos en línea, sin por ello perder el contacto o la supervisión diaria de los participantes. El éxito de los programas actuales tiene una significación especial, porque confirma que la educación a distancia es una opción válida para América Latina, debido a la creciente disponibilidad de acceso a Internet y la disposición de la gente a probar métodos de aprendizaje alternativos.

Sobre el autor

Diego Alfonso Erba es Fellow del Programa para América Latina y el Caribe del Lincoln Institute of Land Policy y profesor de la Universidad Nacional de Rosario, Argentina. Es ingeniero agrimensor con títulos de doctorado y posdoctorado en ciencias de agrimensura. Comenzó a trabajar en educación a distancia en Brasil en 2001, en la Universidade do Vale do Rio dos Sinos (UNISINOS), y ha liderado el programa del Instituto Lincoln.

Antonio Azuela, a fellow of the Institute for Social Research at Mexico’s National University, holds law degrees from the Universidad Iberoamericana (Mexico) and the University of Warwick (England), as well as a Ph.D. in sociology from Mexico’s National University (UNAM). Since the late 1970s, he has been engaged in research and teaching on urban and environmental law from a sociolegal perspective. His book Visionarios y pragmáticos: Una aproximación sociológica al derecho ambiental (Visionaries and Pragmatists: A Sociological Approach to Environmental Law), Mexico: UNAM, 2006, is a sociological reconstruction of his experience as General Attorney for the Environment in the Mexican Federal Government, from 1994 to 2000. He has recently edited the book Expropiación y conflicto social en cinco metrópolis latinoamericanas (Expropriations and Social Conflict in Five Latin American Metropolises), published by UNAM and the Lincoln Institute of Land Policy in 2013.

Land Lines: How did you get involved with the Lincoln Institute of Land Policy?

Antonio Azuela: In 1991, I met several of the Institute’s officers while they were on an exploratory trip to Mexico. I stayed in touch, because I was interested in the Institute’s approach to urban policy. My relationship grew stronger in 1998 through a meeting in Cairo organized by the International Research Group on Law and Urban Space (IRGLUS), where the Institute expressed interest in a sociolegal approach to urban land problems. In 2000, I was honored with an invitation to join the Institute’s Board of Directors. Since then, I have been in permanent contact with the Lincoln Institute staff and programs.

Land Lines: Why has the public acquisition of land become such a critical issue, particularly in Latin America?

Antonio Azuela: Expropriation, also known as eminent domain (i.e., the compulsory acquisition of land by the state) is an important subject all over the world, because it is a way of procuring land for public urban projects. But in Latin America it is even more critical, due to the weak nature of the state regarding urban matters. Before the democratic transition in the region, it was easier for governments to procure land using mechanisms that would be questionable in a democracy. But the transition has strengthened the judicial branch, which is generally unsympathetic to government interventions in the marketplace. Now, it’s increasingly possible for private owners to interfere with the public acquisition of land in the region (with the notable exception of Colombia, where a wide-ranging coalition of professionals, judges, and social organizations supports the doctrine of the social function of property). This trend can be seen, for example, in the exorbitant compensation that some courts have granted for land expropriations in Mexico City and São Paulo.

Land Lines: What are the main watershed issues?

Antonio Azuela: The first is the adoption of economic policies that advocate a lesser role for the state. The second pertains to the legal status of property rights. When constitutional reforms empower judges to limit the power of eminent domain, this restriction is not necessarily bad, because it can lead to higher quality public administration, but in the short term it has interfered with government power to purchase urban land for public projects. There are two notable exceptions: In Brazil and Colombia, constitutional reforms have established urban policies inspired by ideas of social justice—though only in Colombia do we find a new generation of judges who act in accordance with these principles. In Brazil, the courts are dominated by the classic liberal view of private property, which interferes with the ability to implement the social function of property—an idea that has been circulating in Latin America for almost a century.

Land Lines: Many jurisdictions prefer to acquire land in the open market instead of using instruments such as eminent domain.

Antonio Azuela: Eminent domain should not be the first option for acquiring land. The challenge is for governments to regulate a variety of instruments in order to achieve a general goal, which is to reduce the land component of the total cost of urban development. The use of eminent domain must be guaranteed by a strong legal framework that can establish an adequate balance between the power of the state and the power of the landowners, and it should be the last option when acquiring land for public urban projects.

The big problem is the cost of land, but the mechanisms of government intervention can inflate prices. For example, if the use of eminent domain is not expected to increase land value, and the judges determine it’s the right approach, it can have a positive impact on land markets. At the very least, we can expect from governments that their acquisition of land does not raise prices.

Land Lines: What are the main outcomes of your research on the use of eminent domain for urban development in the region?

Antonio Azuela: While there is a general trend to strengthen property rights, which interferes with the power of eminent domain, this trend shows several variations, depending on the relationship between the judicial and executive branches in the post-authoritarian governments of the region. The process of institutional change depends less on global trends than on domestic and even local forces, as certain cities follow different paths from others in the same country. Even if all local governments were to adopt the same strategy, the courts in one region will protect landowners more than the courts in other regions. The metropolitan area of Buenos Aires, for example, illustrates how the institutional system of eminent domain is not homogeneous, even within the same metropolitan area. In the Autonomous City of Buenos Aires, for example, people who live in informal settlements (villas miseria) have gone to court and prevented evictions. In the Province of Buenos Aires, however, the political climate is such that there is no threat of eviction; eminent domain is used to ensure that settlers can remain where they are.

Another important lesson is that there is no authentic dialog in Latin America on the significance of eminent domain or on the various ways the courts have tackled the dilemmas it presents. While the constitutional thinking in the region is very rich in ideas about certain legal issues, such as the rights of indigenous people and the elderly, urban policies—in particular, eminent domain—have not triggered deep discussions among legal scholars. Unfortunately, these issues seem to be viewed as exceptions, despite the enormous number of people who live (suffering or enjoying) in large urban centers.

Land Lines: Are eminent domain compensations arbitrary or unfair? If so, for whom?

Antonio Azuela: Inadequate compensation is, no doubt, one of the great challenges for the future development of eminent domain as a land policy instrument. In some cases, governments may take advantage of the powerlessness of certain social groups and offer them ridiculously low compensation for their land or homes. In other cases, however, the landowner’s economic power and influence can result in exorbitant compensations. Beyond these two extremes, in which the affected landowner is either very vulnerable or very powerful, it is difficult to discern a dominant trend.

A precise answer to your question would require a market study of a large number of eminent domain cases in order to determine if the compensation is high or low when compared to preestablished criteria. The existing research has shown, however, that in general the courts do not possess clear and widely shared criteria for determining whether compensations are fair. Moreover, courts lack the capacity to understand what is at stake during the process of urban transformation in which eminent domain is used. Consider, for instance, the case of a prominent family from Ecuador that received a very high compensation for the expropriation of agricultural land on the periphery of Quito. What is remarkable is that this case was decided by the Inter-American Court of Human Rights, and it was obvious that the court did not establish clear criteria to determine the amount of compensation; it simply averaged the assessments submitted by the different parties. The compensation was the highest ever awarded by this high court, which was created to address violations of human rights committed by dictatorships yet ended up benefiting private property owners at the expense of the public interest. The fact that this case did not create a scandal among constitutionalists in the region indicates how marginalized urban legal issues are in Latin America.

Land Lines: What are some changing trends you have observed?

Antonio Azuela: I observe, with some optimism, that many courts and local governments in the region are undergoing a learning process, trying not to repeat prior judicial mistakes. Unfortunately, these lessons rarely transcend the affected local area and become incorporated into the common regional juridical knowledge.

Land Lines: What sort of education or training would you recommend?

Antonio Azuela: Logically, we need to intensify exchanges among different disciplines and countries, placing the courts at the center of the discussion, as they will make the final decisions. These decisions should express the best possible synthesis of a body of knowledge that we need to build around the urban dynamics of the region. In the contact we have had with the courts, with the support of the Lincoln Institute, we have found that once a dialog is established, judges understand the need to learn more in order to grasp the effects of their decisions. In other words, while the courts do not seem to show a great interest in urban problems, as evidenced by the routine attitude shown in their day-to-day decisions, they can see new perspectives for their own professional development in the context of a critical analysis of urban issues.

Land Lines: What are the critical issues that need to be investigated more deeply? What is it that we do not yet know?

Antonio Azuela: We should try to understand the logic of court decisions in the region. We frequently make a simplistic interpretation of the actions taken by the courts, because the media tend to amplify the worst cases. However, many judges make an effort to find the best possible solution to each case. Under what conditions do they operate? One of the challenges of investigating these issues in Latin America is to understand the real world in which these decisions are made, apart from the common but always relevant themes of corruption and incompetence. We need to analyze statistical information to observe general trends, combined with an ethnographic approach to the functioning of the courts. Only then will we be able to understand what needs to be reformed in order to improve the court performance in urban conflicts. While it is important to ascertain who is being favored by the court decisions—which can be done by analyzing the contents of judicial decisions—we need better understanding of the conditions under which these decisions are made. In order to do that, we need to get closer to the courts themselves.

Vivienda inclusiva: La creación y el mantenimiento de comunidades equitativas

Por Rick Jacobus

En diferentes ciudades, como Seattle, San Francisco, Chicago, y Portland, Maine, se ha desatado un debate sobre la vivienda inclusiva, es decir, el requisito de que los desarrolladores reserven un porcentaje de los nuevos desarrollos residenciales para viviendas asequibles. Algunos sostienen que esta política desalienta el desarrollo o, con alegación más polémica que podría llegar a la Corte Suprema, que constituye una amenaza a los derechos de propiedad. Mientras tanto, el alcalde de la ciudad de Nueva York, Bill de Blasio, se enfrenta a críticas desde ambas partes: que su propuesta de vivienda inclusiva va demasiado lejos, o que no es suficiente.

En este nuevo informe titulado “Vivienda inclusiva: Creación y mantenimiento de comunidades equitativas”, Rick Jacobus separa la realidad de los mitos y traza el camino a los gestores de políticas, mostrando cómo la vivienda inclusiva puede usarse de manera eficaz para reducir la segregación económica.

“En las ciudades con mercados inmobiliarios muy activos, el aumento de los precios de la vivienda, obliga a los residentes de clase media y de bajos ingresos a alejarse de los empleos mejor remunerados, del transporte confiable, de las buenas escuelas y de los barrios seguros”, sostiene George W. McCarthy, presidente y director ejecutivo del Instituto Lincoln. “La vivienda inclusiva por sí sola no solucionará nuestra crisis de la vivienda, pero es uno de los pocos baluartes que tenemos para contrarrestar los efectos del aburguesamiento, y únicamente si preservamos las unidades que tanto nos cuesta construir”.

Mediante un análisis de la bibliografía sobre el tema y casos de estudio, Rick Jacobus, de Street Level Urban Impact Advisors, ofrece soluciones para superar las principales barreras políticas, técnicas, legales y prácticas que enfrenta todo programa de vivienda inclusiva para tener éxito.

“Más de 500 comunidades han utilizado las políticas de vivienda inclusiva con el fin de mantener la vitalidad y diversidad de los barrios en transición, y hasta ahora hemos aprendido mucho”, señala Jacobus. “Según investigaciones realizadas, si los programas se diseñan e implementan concienzudamente, pueden llegar a ser una herramienta valiosa en tiempos en que la vivienda inclusiva se necesita desesperadamente”.

En particular, el autor se refiere en este informe a la preocupación de que la vivienda inclusiva podría impedir nuevas construcciones debido a que el desarrollo tendría un rendimiento económico menor. Según el informe, muchas ciudades han evitado dicho impacto otorgando flexibilidad a los desarrolladores para cumplir con las normas y ofreciendo incentivos, como la posibilidad de construir unidades con mayor densidad.

Otras conclusiones y recomendaciones clave que surgen del informe son las siguientes:

• La rápida construcción de viviendas a valor de mercado en realidad potencia la necesidad de más viviendas inclusivas, lo que cambia el carácter de los barrios.
• Los programas de vivienda inclusiva se han impugnado a nivel judicial, pero pueden diseñarse de manera cuidadosa para minimizar los riesgos legales.
• El seguimiento de los programas mediante la ejecución de las normas y la administración es fundamental. En algunas comunidades se han creado miles de hogares asequibles que, más tarde, desaparecen a consecuencia de ventas posteriores.

Durante muchos años, el Instituto Lincoln ha desarrollado estrategias para apoyar la vivienda permanentemente asequible, mediante, por ejemplo, el establecimiento de fideicomisos de suelo comunitarios y otros acuerdos de capital compartido. Estas medidas se han tomado teniendo en cuenta la actual crisis de acceso a la vivienda existente en muchas ciudades. Los precios estratosféricos de los precios de alquiler y compra de viviendas en los mercados inmobiliarios muy activos han ido desplazando a los antiguos residentes y cambiando el carácter de ciudades y barrios.

Para encargar ejemplares: http://www.lincolninst.edu/pubs/3583_Inclusionary-Housing.

Rick Jacobus, es experto nacional en vivienda inclusiva y en acceso a la propiedad de viviendas asequibles. Es director principal de Street Level Urban Impact Advisors (StreetLevelAdvisors.com). Fundó Cornerstone Partnership y actualmente es asesor estratégico en Cornerstone.

Smart growth has moved from the domain of policy analysts into more general acceptance. It is championed by national leaders such as Vice President Al Gore, governors (Parris Glendening of Maryland), urban mayors (William A. Johnson of Rochester, New York), non-governmental organizations (National Trust for Historic Preservation), and the private sector (Urban Land Institute). Voters in many California cities, including Sacramento, Santa Barbara, Irvine and Davis, and in numerous suburbs around San Francisco have approved urban growth boundaries (UGB) as one type of intervention to contain sprawl development.

Urban containment policies are not limited to environmentally active communities in California, Oregon or Colorado, or booming economies in states such as Florida, however. Lexington, Kentucky, observed the 40th anniversary of its urban growth boundary last year, and Sioux Falls, South Dakota, has had a containment boundary for many years. This kind of broad-based popular support for smart growth policies is more than simply a growth management fad and is likely to increase, particularly as long as the national economic expansion continues. Indeed, urban containment appears to be building a kind of momentum as a land use policy that has not been seen since the Supreme Court’s sanctioning of zoning in Ambler Realty Co. vs. Euclid, Ohio.

Urban containment planning has two basic purposes: (1) to promote compact, contiguous, and accessible development provided with efficient public services; and (2) to preserve open space, agricultural land and environmentally sensitive areas that are not currently suitable for development. Urban containment consists of drawing a line around an urban area within which development is encouraged, often with density bonuses or minimum density requirements, to accommodate projected growth over a specified future time period, typically ten to twenty years. Land outside the boundary is generally restricted to resource uses and to very low-density residential development by limiting the extension of utilities, wastewater services and other infrastructure.

Intuitively, however, this sort of land regulation appears to be a double-edged sword. On the one hand, measures aimed at reducing traffic congestion or infrastructure costs, or improving the aesthetic quality of urban areas, are appealing. On the other hand, measures that are seen to limit land supply and potentially cause housing prices to increase are unappealing, particularly to those seeking to expand the stock of affordable housing.

To explore the implications of these two faces of urban containment as smart growth policy, the Lincoln Institute and the Fannie Mae Foundation convened a group of scholars and practitioners for a symposium in Cambridge last February. The economists, planners and other researchers in attendance discussed the existing literature on urban containment and identified questions for future research that could inform policy making in this dynamic area of land regulation.

Housing Price Effects

Housing costs reflect the price of land, the price of the house and the value of amenities. Urban containment policies change housing costs for two reasons. First, land prices change when land supply is altered. Second, if urban containment increases the value of the amenity package associated with a house, then that, too, will cause a change in house prices. Much of the discussion at the symposium centered around these two theoretically distinct aspects of the housing price problem.

Most economic literature assessing urban containment argues that it raises land and housing prices principally by constraining the supply of land and/or by failing to accommodate new demand for serviced land. But, others argue that urban containment systems, when coupled with increased densities within the growth boundary, should not adversely affect supply and, indeed, should generate benefits to residents. This latter view shifts the focus away from the microeconomic theory of price determination to housing economics, which introduces the concept that house prices capitalize the value of neighborhood amenities.

For example, the increased densities within an urban growth boundary can make it practical to extend or enhance existing public transit, thus yielding greater accessibility. In addition, increases in densities can result in lower costs to provide urban services by the public sector. Similarly, higher neighborhood densities can lead to more interactions with neighbors and more “eyes on the streets,” which, in turn, can translate into lower crime rates. Finally, if urban containment is successful in preserving open spaces, house values in neighborhoods near the preserved open space should also rise.

All of these benefits can be counted among the amenities that give value to a house and are ultimately capitalized in its value, even while the land supply restriction can also put pressure on house prices. In truth, both factors may be at work, and we still have much to learn about their impacts. Furthermore, some of these internalized benefits may have different values for households at different income levels.

A comparison of Atlanta, Georgia, and Portland, Oregon, both suggests of these sorts of benefits and points to areas for future research to answer these questions more comprehensively (see Table 1). During the first half of the 1990s, Portland experienced a large increase in housing prices (approximately 60 percent compared to almost 20 percent in Atlanta, in nominal terms). Between the mid-1980s and the mid-1990s, homeownership rates in Portland increased by nearly 5 percent while Atlanta’s rate remained virtually unchanged. Finally, perceptions of improved house quality were greater among Portland residents than those in Atlanta. In both metropolitan areas and in both time periods, the proportion of household income spent on housing was virtually the same, suggesting that income growth in Portland exceeded that in Atlanta. However, it is difficult to conclude definitively that increases in house quality in Portland were due to enhanced amenities conferred on households by changes in land regulation, rather than to rising incomes.

Although urban containment policies may stabilize the supply of land, they usually increase the supply of development opportunities. Such policies are typically accompanied by “upzoning” whereby land zoned formerly at one level of development intensity is changed to allow for a higher density. One strategy to increase densities is to infill and redevelop (or “refill”) urban areas at higher than extant levels through the adoption of “minimum intensity” zoning. We do not know the subsequent effect of such policies on house prices, and we know even less about their effect on household budgets and disposable income. For example, higher housing prices may simply reflect capitalization of more efficient development patterns that reduce expenditures in other parts of the household budget.

It is possible, however, that current and future homeowners will benefit directly from these sorts of capitalized savings. For example, location-efficient mortgages, a lending instrument being tested in a few markets, allow lenders to extend mortgages to households based on a higher mortgage-to-income ratio. The rationale for altering the income eligibility is that, in comparison to suburban households, urban households can substitute walking and public transit for automobile payments, including both capital costs and operating expenses. Thus, disposable income is effectively increased as non-housing expenditures decline. Current experiments with the location-efficient mortgage are underway in Chicago’s northside neighborhoods and in central Seattle. If default rates for these loans are similar to those for traditional mortgages, we may see greater adoption of this instrument in appropriate submarkets.

Other savings that may accrue to urban homeowners as a result of containment policies are lower taxes due to lower capital costs or increases in supplemental income if higher densities are achieved through the addition of accessory apartments in existing houses.

Landowner Behavior Implications

The imposition of urban containment policies and changes in density are also likely to result in changed expectations of landowners. Therefore, an additional consideration for researchers, which the symposium participants confronted, is the role of containment in affecting the nature of landowner behavior with respect to land acquisition and land development.

In an environment of a relatively inexhaustible supply of land, speculation can be reasonably efficient while the competition to sell land keeps prices low. The end result may be that housing prices will not be affected materially. However, when supply is constrained, even if upzoning increases development capacity, the number of players in the land market can fall and cartels may form. Furthermore, an assumption of urban containment policies is that undeveloped land inside the boundary will come on-line in sufficient amounts and at appropriate times to sustain development. There is no research into this, however. Will owners of land, knowing they hold an oligopolistic position in the land market, delay its sale to get a higher price?

Until now, in our studies of urban land markets, we have lived with the assumption of relatively inexhaustible (i.e., elastic) land supply. Urban containment policies can change that premise by making land an exhaustible commodity, resulting in the problem of dual predictability. On one hand, developers are given more certainty in whether and how they develop land; on the other hand, landowners know that land supply will become exhaustible and therefore they may be enticed to become speculators, in their own right. Will local governments reward those willing to develop vacant or underused parcels with higher densities to offset others who delay sale? Certainly, a land tax is expected to limit this sort of behavior. Can other changes in the tax regime encourage development within the UGB? For all of these reasons, we have much to learn about the effect of urban containment on landowner and speculative behavior.

Summary Observations

The symposium participants spent more time on the economic issues related to urban containment than on environmental concerns. However, some material was presented that suggested significant environmental benefits as a result of urban containment. Table 2 presents additional comparisons of Portland and Atlanta between the mid-1980s and the mid-1990s. While vehicle miles traveled increased in both places, Portland experienced little change (2 percent) whereas Atlanta experienced a significant increase (17 percent). At the same time, Portland’s average commute times fell, air quality improved, and per capita energy consumption declined.

All of these indicators suggest that Portland is different from Atlanta in meaningful ways. Furthermore, typical behavior by individuals in each of these metropolitan areas is presumed to be different. We should attempt to find out the degree to which growth containment policies account for these behavioral differences and whether there are other policies that may also play important roles in affecting the economic and environmental dynamics of metropolitan regions. For example, the problem of housing affordability remains a serious concern in most cities, whether with or without urban containment boundaries.

Urban containment creates an entirely new regime in urban planning and development decision making, offering research challenges because of the difficulties in developing methodologies that can tease out complex interactions and frame the results in a manner that can advance both public and private interests. The Lincoln Institute, the Fannie Mae Foundation and the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development are among a growing number of research entities interested in pursuing these challenges.

Arthur C. Nelson is professor of city planning, urban design and public policy at the Georgia Institute of Technology in Atlanta. He organized the seminar referenced in this article and has researched and written extensively on this topic.

Numerous convergent trends motivated 40 academics and practitioners from 15 countries to meet at the Lincoln Institute in July 1998 to discuss recent land market reforms. First, the recognition that the world’s population is becoming increasingly urban and so the quantity of land converted to urban use is expected to rise significantly. Second, evidence that a major proportion of the world’s poorest households now lives in urban areas (e.g., 80 percent in Latin America). Third, the perceived sea change in the role of government shifting away from intervention and regulation toward more selective urban management. During the three-day workshop, participants presented papers and discussed the rationale behind recent legal and institutional reforms, the nature of the transition from customary or informal to formal markets, evidence for improved land market efficiency, and access to land for the poor.

Legal and Institutional Reform

Several participants made the case for institutional reform of land markets in different ways. Steve Mayo (Lincoln Institute) drew conceptual and empirical links between the performance of property markets and the macro economy. He noted that poorly functioning land markets influence wealth creation and mobility rates which, coupled with particular finance conditions, could aggravate macro-economic instability. Drawing data from the Housing Indicators Program he showed that the prices of raw and serviced land tended to converge with higher land prices, indicating larger land development multipliers at lower prices. He also noted a relationship between the price elasticity of the housing supply and the policy environment.

Although there is a perception that reforms toward ‘enabling’ policy environments are now widespread in developing and transition economies, Alain Durand-Lasserve (National Center for Scientific Research, France) observed the rarity of explicit reference to ‘land market reform’ in political statements in Africa. Indeed, he argued that the ideological underpinning for freer land markets was more advanced than the practice of establishing the prerequisites for effective and unitary markets. In practice, a number of papers indicated competing political agendas, legal ambiguity and diversity of progress in the reform process.

“The law can be reformed, history cannot,” said Patrick McAuslan (Birkbeck College, London) in discussing the role of the law as a necessary basis for effective land market reform. He described the evolution of the recent Land Act of Uganda, which seeks to establish a land market based on individual ownership. He commended the government for dovetailing the reform process with extensive public debate, but noted that drafts of the Act set up new contradictions in a century-long history of competing land relations between freehold, customary tenure and nationalized public lands. His paper outlined a series of ‘time-bombs’ left by colonial administrations and aggravated by post-independence governments, only some of which are addressed by the new legislation.

The inconsistent nature of reform appears to be particularly acute for the transition economies of Eastern Europe and Southern Africa. In Eastern Europe, the legacies of communism have led to inappropriate land uses and the assignment of non-monetary values to property. Legal changes toward land privatization, however, have been slow. Tom Reiner (University of Pennsylvania) argued that despite a strong normative case for privatization and latent demand in the Ukraine, current laws make no provision for freehold sale. He presented data to show that privatization would yield considerable macro-economic and fiscal benefits: direct sales revenue alone would amount to $13 billion, plus increased taxes and more efficient resource allocation.

In Russia, according to Jan Brzeski (Crakow Real Estate Institute), the emergence of land markets has been inhibited by a different understanding of the social role of property and turf politics. In Poland, where privatization is more advanced, he argued that reforms have been insufficient to overcome extensive resource misallocation. Assignation has taken place at symbolic prices without reforms to ground rents or property taxes, and with high transaction costs. Nevertheless, land market turnover is increasing faster than economic growth and re-sales represent about 25 percent of capital investment.

The1991 privatization program in Albania appears to have stimulated an active property and land market. Research by David Stanfield (University of Wisconsin-Madison) indicates substantial increases in turnover rates and increasing prices, but also extensive conflicts between pre-collectivization and post-privatization holders, contradictions in the many laws and errors in the new documentation. The research points to the relative ease of establishing frameworks for privatization but greater difficulties in allowing markets to function thereafter.

Lusugga Kironde (University College of Lands and Architectural Studies) described how shortcomings in the ‘planned’ allocation system in Tanzania meant that 60 percent of people acquired land through informal methods. This in turn denied revenue to the government since transactions were outside official sanction and in some cases well-off households received plots with a substantial subsidy. Michael Roth (University of Wisconsin-Madison) described a similar situation in Mozambique, where the legacy of state socialism is still felt in the level of government intervention and under-representation of freehold tenure.

In both countries, the assessment of reform was mixed. Tanzania’s New Land Policy (1995), while a useful step in accepting the existence of a land market and providing security to plots with customary tenure, has fallen short of removing the barriers to an effective land market. In particular, Kironde noted that the new measures concentrated decisions in a Land Commissioner despite a national policy of administrative decentralization. The policy offers no incentive to encourage the formalization of informal practices and no stake to ensure the compliance of important middlemen. In Mozambique, since the late 1980s, market-oriented reforms have produced unclear administrative responsibilities and uncertain land rights. One feature has been land disputes with households calling upon newly empowered producer associations to defend claims. The 1997 reforms attempt to guarantee tenure security, provide incentives for investment, and incorporate innovative ideas for community land rights.

In Latin America, reform has been less concerned with establishing markets per se and more with improving their function, especially land reforms motivated by largely rural concerns but which have important urban impacts. Rosaria Pisa (University of Wales) indicated that reforms in Mexico have created the necessary conditions for the privatization of community (ejido) land, but progress has been slow. Less than one percent of land has been privatized in five years due to other government interests and legal ambiguities that have established a second informal land market.

Carlos Guanziroli (INCRA – the National Institute on Colonization and Agrarian Reform, Brazil) argued that rural reform was producing land use diversity, especially through the survival of small family farms. Reform was also affecting Brazil’s urban land markets as capital switched from rural to urban areas, probably raising urban land prices. Francisco Sabatini (Catholic University) argued that the liberalization in Chile had not reduced land prices because landowners’ and developers’ decisions are influenced less by regulations and more by demand.

Overall, the consensus on whether reforms were producing unitary and less diverse land markets was unclear. Agents and institutions are proving to be very adaptable to new conditions, a point made for all three regions. Ayse Pamuk (University of Virginia) argued that, based on her analysis of informal institutions in Trinidad, researchers should look away from formal regulations as a barrier to land market operation. Instead, they should consider how social institutions such as trust and reciprocity were producing flexible solutions to tenure insecurity and dispute resolution.

Clarissa Fourie (University of Natal) described how user-friendly local land records could be merged with registries on marriage, inheritance, women’s rights and debt to produce a useful tool for land administration in Namibia. Nevertheless, she noted that the incorporation of customary practices into land administration to provide security of tenure would mean some adaptation of social land tenure systems. Pointing to research in Senegal and South Africa, Babette Wehrmann (GTZ, Germany) argued that customary and informal agents were flourishing and providing high-quality sources of market information.

The Formalization and Regularization of Land Tenure

Peter Ward (University of Texas at Austin) described the diversity of regularization programs across Latin America, where some countries consider it to be a juridical procedure and others regard it as physical upgrading. Regularization may be an end in itself (mass titling programs), or a means to an end (to develop credit systems). Ward argued that the differences among programs stem from how each government ‘constructs’ its urbanization process and represents this vision back to society through laws and language.

Edesio Fernandes (University of London) explained how Brazil’s Civil Code dating from the beginning of the century created a system of individual property rights that restricted the ability of government to regularize favela communities. The 1988 Constitution attempted to reform this situation by acknowledging private property rights when accomplishing a social function. Nevertheless, legal tensions within regularization programs have failed to integrate the favelas into the ‘official city,’ leading to some politically dangerous situations.

Under different circumstances, South Africa produced a regulatory regime that denied freehold tenure to black households or offered only complicated non-collateral permits to the few. Lauren Royston (Development Planning Alternatives, Johannesburg) outlined how the country’s Land Policy White Paper contemplates legally enforceable and non-racial rights, a wider range of tenure options and opportunities for communal property acquisition.

The two developing countries with the most extensive mass titling programs, Mexico and Peru, were scrutinized by Ann Varley (University College, London) and Gustavo Riofrio (Center for the Study and Promotion of Development – DESCO, Lima). Varley assessed two prevailing assumptions that run through the contemporary policy literature: that decentralization produces more effective land management, and that the regularization of customary tenure is more complicated than the regularization of private property. In Mexico, despite the rhetoric of decentralization, a highly centralized system has been increasingly effective in providing land regularization to settlements on ejido land. On the other hand, the regularization of private property is tortuously long and frequently produces poor results. She commented with some concern on the current trends in Mexico to convert ejido land to private ownership and to move toward greater decentralization.

Riofrio questioned the validity of the claims made for land regularization in Peru. He noted that in reality household interest in property title was quite low, not least because records are inaccurate and therefore offer less security than promised. Moreover, only an incipient housing finance market has emerged, based on the regularized properties. Households are wary of debt but are willing to borrow small sums for micro-enterprises and consumption secured on their housing.

New Social Patterns and Forms of Land Delivery

Would liberalization produce more segregated land markets? Brzeski noted that state planning in Eastern Europe has left a legacy of spatial equity and few informal land holdings, but that it would not last forever and planners need to take this into account in instigating reform. In countries with notable levels of social segregation, such as Chile, Colombia and South Africa, less predictable trends are emerging. Sabatini’s data indicated less spatial segregation in Santiago despite liberalization as intermediate spaces are developed, around malls for example, and as new lifestyles are reflected in ‘leisure home’ developments outside the metropolitan area.

Carolina Barco (University of the Andes) argued that new measures in Colombia, specifically the 1997 Ley de Ordenamiento Territorial, will allow the government of Bogota to capture land value increments and transfer these revenues to public housing and other projects. This process is still problematic, however, even in a city with considerable experience in the use of valorization taxes.

In South Africa, strategies to cope with the ‘land hunger’ of the post-apartheid city, especially the Development Facilitation Act nationally and the Rapid Land Development Program in the province of Gauteng, have offered fast-track land release but have performed less well against the principles of equity and integration. Royston explained that the result has been a large number of invasions and the speeding up of land delivery through local government on the urban periphery that does not challenge the ‘spatial quo.’

Changing the method of land delivery and government stakeholding has the potential to affect segregation and access to land. Geoff Payne (Geoff Payne and Associates, London) outlined the principles and practices of public/private partnerships in developing countries. Although much heralded in international policy, research in South Africa, India, Pakistan, Egypt and Eastern Europe has shown that such partnerships had undersold their potential.

Crispus Kiamba (University of Nairobi) outlined a transition in Kenya from government-sponsored schemes, which left the informal and formal circuits separate, to new approaches with greater NGO involvement, ‘group ranches’ and partnerships. In Mexico, too, partnerships are seen as one method to eliminate the cycle of illegality and regularization. Federico Seyde and Abelardo Figueroa (Mexican government) outlined a new program called PISO, which, despite numerous bottlenecks when compared to previous interventions (e.g. land reserves), was proving more effective.

Land Markets and Poverty Reduction

In my opening remarks I argued that most research on markets considered poverty as a legitimate context, but thereafter seemed more concerned with market operations than with how these operations might affect poverty. In the final session, Omar Razzaz (World Bank) outlined a proposal for linking land market operation to poverty reduction. The ‘Land and Real Estate Initiative’ aims to investigate ways to improve the liquidity of land assets and access to the poor through re-engineering land registries (improved business processes), developing regulatory infrastructure (the exchange-mortgage-securitization continuum), and accessing and mobilizing land and real estate by the poor. The appropriateness of this initiative generated considerable debate, which may help in refining ideas that could benefit the 500 million people living in urban poverty in developing countries.

Gareth A. Jones was the program developer and chair of the workshop.

How have infrastructure investments shaped global city regions? What have been the effects on the residents? Do the effects differ among residents in different sections of the city? Is the process different by type of infrastructure, such as highways, mass transit, airports or seaports? What if high-technology telecommunications infrastructures are included among our considerations? When the forces of globalization and technological change interact, do cities fare differently? Do their residents experience these changes differently?

These were among the questions generated at the second meeting of the global city regions consortium coordinated in July by Roger Simmonds, senior lecturer of planning at Oxford Brookes University. Most of the participants at the first conference held at the Lincoln Institute in September 1995 reconvened in El Escorial, Spain, to present the results of their latest research on the relationship between the location and timing of infrastructure development and the spatial form of the region. Teams from 11 city regions made presentations: Ankara, Turkey; Bangkok, Thailand; Madrid, Spain; San Diego, California; Santiago, Chile; and Sao Paulo, Brazil; Seattle, Washington; Taipei, Taiwan; The Randstad, Holland; Tokyo, Japan; and West Midlands, England.

Commenting on the relationship between infrastructure, governance and regional planning, Pedro Ortiz Castano, director of planning for the municipal government of Madrid, described the municipality’s extensive infrastructure plan. Existing highways, roads and transit lines will be woven together with other planned development to cover the region in a matrix or grid. This configuration is meant to reduce congestion and increase accessibility across city sectors as well as among social and economic classes.

Madrid’s grid-system of infrastructure and settlements presents a sharp contrast to the concentric rings of highways found in Seattle, as described by Anne Vernez-Moudon, professor of architecture and urban planning at the University of Washington. Despite the presence of Puget Sound to the west and the Cascade Mountains to the east, Seattle reflects the typical North American affection for beltways. Furthermore, with one highway dubbed the “Boeing Beltway,” the relationship between government-funded infrastructure and the private sector is clear.

This comparison also illustrates the role of Madrid’s strong regional government in attempting to have infrastructure-whether government-funded or privatized-shape the urban form. In most global city regions with weaker governments, infrastructure only plays catch-up with existing demand.

Consortium commentator Gary Hack argued that the polynucleated ‘spread city’ is the more typical reality, usually accompanied by an increase in spatial segregation by class. Since the powerful economic and technological forces at work around the globe are likely to accelerate and reinforce these trends, he concludes that planners should focus on specific sites within city regions where they can exert their influence with the most positive results.

The comparative analysis between Ortiz’s metropolitan-wide infrastructure plan and Hack’s site-specific approach reminds us that, despite the similarities among forces shaping city regions across the globe, the ways these forces play out vary widely. These variances reflect important differences in institutional arrangements, history, culture, attitudes about private property, and notions of the public interest, among other factors. Furthermore, these differences also affect how researchers see their own cities in comparison to others.

The role of informal markets, for example, illustrates the challenge researchers face in attempting to understand both the unique and common features of international forces. While it is hard to understand land markets and land use in cities as different as Ankara and Santiago de Chile without understanding the informal sector, western European and North American researchers rarely attempt to understand their cities’ land markets from this perspective.

The regional city teams are continuing to work on their respective reports in preparation for publication of a book by International Thomson Publishing in the United Kingdom.

Rosalind Greenstein is a senior fellow of the Lincoln Institute and director of the Program on Land Use and Regulation.

In four years, there will be a fresh count of Americans. The 2000 Census will reveal how many of us there are, who we are in terms of race, nativity, income, family size and occupation, what kind of housing we occupy, where we live and where we work.

All these numbers, but especially the latter two, will reflect what is happening to what planners and social scientists call settlement patterns. The Census will show how people and jobs are distributed regionally between North and South and East and West; within regions between metropolitan and non-metropolitan areas; and within metropolitan areas between cities and suburbs.

Settlement patterns have been transformed radically in the twentieth century (see graph 1). On a regional basis, the trend has been from East to West and North to South. In the decade between 1980 and 1990, for example, three states in the West and South accounted for 50 percent of the nation’s population growth: California, Florida and Texas.

Within all regions, the trend has been toward ever larger metropolitan agglomerations. By 1990, metropolitan areas of 1,000,000 or more accounted for 50 percent of the nation’s population. Within metropolitan areas, cities grew faster than suburbs at the beginning of the century, but by the 1950s the trend was sharply in favor of the suburbs, which now account for more than half of the nation’s population.

Will the 2000 Census confirm the continuation of these trends? What stakes do we have in the outcome? Quite a few. We worry about trends that erode the economic base of cities because we are concerned about job opportunities for the poor who are committed, by choice or circumstance, to live in the city. We are also concerned about the health of the tax base, which affects the capacity of the local government to deal with the needs of all its residents.

We also worry about land use patterns in the suburbs which both require and increase auto-dependency. This trend in turn leads to more auto travel, aggravates congestion, pollutes the air, and complicates our international relations because of our heavy dependence on imported oil.

We are in the throes of a revolution comparable in scope to the revolution in transportation technology that heavily influenced settlement patterns in the nineteenth and twentieth centuries. The transportation revolution, from ships and trains to cars and planes, made it possible for both workers and their employers to have a wider choice of locations.

The pace of the revolution in data processing and communications, which began slowly in the middle of the twentieth century, has quickened rapidly in recent years. We speak of a post-industrial information economy. By that we mean that information constitutes an ever-increasing share of the Gross National Product, both as “input” to the production of other goods and services and as “output” in the form of entertainment and related activities.

Household Location Decisions

How will settlement patterns be affected by the transition to an information economy? Let us first consider the worker’s choice of a residential location. In classical urban economics, this choice is seen as a “trade-off” between the merits of a particular place in terms of quality of life and the cost of commuting to work. As the transportation revolution reduced the time and money costs of commuting, more and more workers were able to afford to locate in what they considered an attractive suburb that offered the lifestyle they preferred: a private home with a lawn, good schools, parks and open space, shopping facilities, and friendly neighbors.

The New York Times of July 14, 1996, reports that because of the revolution in communications and data processing, accompanied by company downsizing, as many as 40 million people work at least part time at home, with about 8,000 home-based businesses starting daily.

Logic suggests that some of this new-found workplace freedom will manifest itself in location choices that favor places considered desirable, be they in the farther reaches of suburbia, exurbia, or rural America. On the other hand, if these dispersed self-employed workers end up commuting less, their freedom may not “cost” the society more in terms of congestion and pollution.

Business Location Decisions

What about the conventional company and its location decisions? Like the household, the company does a “balancing” act when it chooses a location. From the perspective of product distribution, Place A might be preferred. From the perspective of the inputs of materials, Place B might be ideal. From the point of view of labor costs, Place C might be best. For tax purposes and related “public” issues, Place D might be most beneficial.

If the entire company has to be in one place, then compromise is inevitable. But if the communications revolution permits the “dis-integration” of the company via the physical separation of functions or the “outsourcing” of particular functions, then what used to be one location decision becomes a multiplicity of decisions, each component responding to a compelling argument for a particular place.

The classic example is the “front” office of a bank or insurance company in the midst of a congested city center with the “back” office in a rural area in another region or even in another country.

Settlement Trends

How these changes in household and business location choices will ultimately affect settlement patterns in metropolitan America was the subject of a major study by the Office of Technology Assessment (OTA), an agency that served the U.S. Congress for many decades but was abolished by the Congress in 1995. The summary chapter in The Technological Reshaping of Metropolitan America states that “technology is connecting economic activities, enabling them to be physically farther apart, reducing the competitive advantage of high-cost, congested urban locations, and allowing people and businesses more (but not total) freedom to choose where they will live and work.”

But OTA concludes that “the new wave of information technologies will not prove to be the salvation of a rural U.S. economy that has undergone decades of population and job loss as its natural resource-based economy has shrunk.” Rather, most economic activity will locate in large and medium-sized metropolitan areas (see graph 2).

“Technological change. . .threatens the economic well being of many central and inner cities, and older suburbs of metropolitan areas,” the report continues. Overall, the trends suggest that these places will find it hard to compete without economic development policies designed to offset their competitive disadvantages.

In short, the OTA expects that, the communications revolution notwithstanding, the 2000 Census will report a continuation of the trends manifested throughout the latter half of the twentieth century. The favored locus of activity in both residential and business terms will be the outer suburbs of metropolitan areas. Given our concerns with the adverse effects of prevailing settlement patterns, the challenge to land policy is greater than ever.

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Benjamin Chinitz is an urban economist who served as director of research at the Lincoln Institute from 1987 to 1990. He continues to serve as a faculty associate at the Institute and as visiting professor in urban and regional planning at Florida Atlantic University.

Thomas Horan is director of Applied Social and Policy Research at Claremont Graduate School in Claremont, CA.

The land market allocates land and access to urban amenities, and it does so with impressive efficiency. Yet, economists and planners continue to debate the extent to which the market fails to achieve broader social goals, how far regulation can offset for that failure, and even whether regulation results in land market outcomes being even farther from the socially desired outcome than would be the case without any regulation. To examine this debate and the underlying issues, more than 30 economists and planners met at the Lincoln Institute in July 2002 to encourage new policy-relevant analysis on land markets and their regulation, and to foster more fruitful communication between the disciplines.

At the center of the substantive debate was the basic question of regulation within a market economy and the unintended consequences that can result. The discussions touched upon many themes including gentrification, the use of public resources for private consumption, distributional issues, urban form and its regulation. If perspectives regarding market regulation differed between the two disciplines, so too did views regarding the strengths and limitations of the analytic tools that academics from different disciplines bring to such thorny problems. Among the challenges are the basic questions of how to define the problem, how to measure the current conditions in light of limited data, and how to interpret findings. Throughout the conference, the differences in the perspectives, assumptions, tools and references between planners and economists were ever present, in particular with regard to the role of politics in planning and policy making.

Unintended Consequences of Land Market Regulations

Despite their differences, concern for land markets and their centrality to social, political and economic life was the common focus of both economists and planners at the conference. They agreed that land markets are about far more than land. These markets have an important role in delivering life experiences and conditioning the welfare of the majority of people in developed and developing countries alike who live and work in cities. In addition, their regulation has both direct and indirect economic effects that extend into many areas of economic life and public policy. For example, the urban poor are likely to have worse schools and to experience higher levels of neighborhood crime because land markets capitalize the values of neighborhood amenities, such as better school quality and lower crime, thereby pricing poorer households into less desirable neighborhoods.

This power of land markets to reflect and capitalize factors that affect a household’s welfare was revealed in a study of impact fees levied on new development in Florida. Ihlanfeldt and Shaughnessy found that impact fees appear to be fully capitalized into house prices for owners of new and existing houses by redistributing the costs of new infrastructure provision from existing taxpayers to a reduced value of development land. In fast-growing Miami the cost of impact fees was borne by developers, yet offset by the increases they received in higher prices for new housing, “while buyers of new homes are compensated for a higher price by the property tax savings they experience. In contrast to the neutral effects that fees have on developers, landowners, and purchasers of new housing, impact fees provide existing homeowners a capital gain” (Ihlanfeldt and Shaughnessy, 26).

One complement to their story of Florida’s impact fees was illustrated in several other papers concerned with the unintended outcomes of regulation. British participants reported that Britain’s containment policy has generated higher densities within urbanized areas, but cities leapfrog out across their Greenbelts (or growth boundaries) to smaller satellite settlements; the consequence is that development becomes less contiguous and travel times increase. Villages become high-density suburbs surrounded by a sea of wheat: London in functional terms extends to cover most of southeastern England.

In a U.S. example based on an econometric simulation, Elena Irwin and Nancy Bockstael found that a clustering policy intended to preserve open space could instead backfire. Using Maryland data, they simulated the effects of a policy that was intended to preserve rural open space and found that it would instead accelerate development if “small to moderate amounts of open space are required to be preserved (specifically, 20 acres or less) and would slow the timing of development if larger amounts of open space are required to be preserved” (Irwin and Bockstael, 26). Their simulation results yield an interpretation that is highly nuanced and requires careful thought. That is, under certain conditions the cluster policy can backfire, while under other specific conditions the policy can yield an intended policy outcome.

These hypothetical clusters in Maryland may be echos of a real situation that Jean Cavailhès and his colleagues observed in the French countryside, where some urban dwellers moved to farm regions to create a mixed-use area that is neither entirely urban nor entirely rural. These former urbanites appear to value their proximity to a functioning rural landscape in exchange for longer commutes and (surprisingly) smaller residential lots. The authors hypothesize that these peri-urban dwellers benefit in different ways from living among the farmers.

In another example of the unintended consequences of regulations, Donald Shoup analyzed curbside parking. Many U.S. municipalities require developers to provide minimal parking per square foot of new commercial or, in some communities, residential space. The requirement for off-street parking, coupled with a systematic underpricing of curbside parking, has a double impact, according to Shoup. It imposes a substantial tax on affected developments (equivalent to up to 88 percent of construction costs), increases land taking, and means that public revenues annually lost an amount equal to the median property tax.

In these cases of unintended consequences of policy or regulatory interventions in the market, the authors argued for more careful design of both policies and regulations so state and local governments could reasonably achieve their policy goals. Despite the fact that the conference debate tended to pit regulation against the market, there was probably a tendency—if not full-fledged consensus—to favor market incentives and disincentives to achieve policy goals, rather than to rely strictly, or even largely, on regulation. Roger Bolton’s comments on Shoup’s paper cogently reflected this viewpoint. He said that Shoup’s work was valuable because it urges us to pay attention to a whole package of “important and related phenomena: inefficient pricing of an important good, curb parking; inefficient regulation of another good, privately owned off-street parking; and missed opportunities for local government revenue.”

Data and Measurement Challenges

Growth management and urban form were referenced extensively throughout the conference. The paper presented by Henry Overman, and written with three colleagues (Burchfield et al.) provided useful grounding to that conversation. They attempted to measure the extent of sprawl for the entire continental U.S. Using remote sensing data they calculated and mapped urban development and the change in urban land cover between 1976 and 1992. They defined sprawl as either the extension of the urban area, or leapfrog development, or lower-density development beyond the urban fringe. They concluded that only 1.9 percent of the continental U.S. was in urban use and only 0.58 percent had been taken for urban development in the 16-year period covered by the study. Furthermore, during this period, urban densities were mostly on the increase.

This study found development to be a feature of the “nearby urban landscape,” whether that was defined as close to existing development, or near highways or the coasts, and thus was perceived as encroaching on where people lived or traveled. The authors use this last observation to reconcile the apparent contradiction between their finding that less than 2 percent of the continental U.S. has been developed and the fact that containing and managing sprawl is at the center of policy agendas in many states and regions across the U.S. While relatively little land might have been consumed by new development in aggregate during the study period, many people see and experience this development on a daily basis and perceive it to represent significant change, often the kind of change they do not like.

The conference discussion touched upon some of the data questions raised by this work. The paper’s discussant, John Landis, noted some challenges he has faced in working with these and similar data to measure growth patterns in California. The estimates by Burchfield et al. are extremely low, possibly for technical reasons, according to Landis. Among the reasons is the difficulty in interpreting satellite images and the different outcomes that can occur when different thresholds are used for counting density, for example. That is, an area can be classified as more or less dense depending on what threshold the analysts establishes. “Ground-truthing” is required to remove some of the arbitrariness from the analysis, but this is an enormously costly undertaking.

Policy analysts are always faced with data limitations. Sometimes the problem is missing data, while other times it is data with questionable reliability. Yet, all too often researchers spend very little time paying attention to how serious that deficiency is for the policy problem at hand. When the available data is a very long time series with frequent intervals that relies on a well-structured and well-understood data collection method, and where few transformations occur between data collection and data use, most researchers and policy analysts would feel extremely comfortable interpolating one or two or even a handful of missing data points. Econometricians relying on data collected at regular intervals from government surveys frequently face this situation and are quite adept at filling in such “holes in the data.” In the world of limited data, that might be considered the best-case scenario.

At the other extreme we might have data that are collected using relatively new methods and that require significant transformation between collection and use. Data reliability likely decreases under these circumstances. Given the imperfect world in which we live, the answer is probably not to insist on using only the “best data.” However, researchers and policy analysts do have the obligation to use care in interpreting results based on weak data and to convey that weakness to their audience.

Another side of the limited data problem is the translation from concept to measure, and it explains why the conference participants spent so much time discussing “What is sprawl?” For researchers this question becomes “How does one define sprawl in such a way that one can measure it?” Burchfield et al. define sprawl as leapfrog or discontiguous urban development. Landis argues for “a more multi-faceted definition of sprawl, one that also incorporates issues of density, land use mix, and built-form homogeneity.”

Definitions are not trivial in policy analysis. If we cannot define the problem or the outcome, and we cannot measure it, how can we know if it is getting better or worse, and if our policies are having an impact? On the other hand, a very precise definition of a different but perhaps related concept may lead to unnecessary intervention. The new policy may improve the score on the measure but have little or no effect on the problem. For a variety of reasons (perhaps in part the customs and cultures within different disciplines) the economists at the conference tended to favor concepts that are simple and for which the data exist. On the other hand, the planners tended to favor concepts that are messy. In the end, one is left with weaknesses on both sides. The uni-dimensional definition, and therefore the uni-dimensional measure, may provide many of the desirable properties that allow statistical analyses. Multi-dimensional concepts are difficult to translate into measures. Which is better for policy making?

The Political Nature of Land Policy

Planning as a political activity was emphasized by several authors, notably Chris Riley (discussant of papers by Edwin Mills and Alan Evans), to emphasize the importance for economists to recognize this role and the constraints it imposes on significant change (particularly given the capacity of land markets to capitalize into asset values the amenities generated by planning policies themselves). Richard Feiock added there was also evidence that the forms of planning policies that communities selected (both the severity of such policies and the degree to which they relied on regulation in contrast to market instruments) could be largely accounted for by the political structure and socioeconomic and ethnic composition of those communities.

Participants reacted differently to the political nature of land policy and planning. For some this was problematic: it meant that the market was not being allowed to work. For others, it meant that the political process in a democracy was being allowed to work: the people had spoken and the policy reflected the expressed will of the body politic.

Reflections on Debate

The differences between economists and planners will continue, and differences among practitioners in different countries and even different parts of the same country (notably the large United States) can either stimulate or thwart future debates over the study of land market policies and implementation. Perhaps, though, the word debate itself thwarts our efforts. In debates, the debaters rarely change their minds. They enter the debate with their point of view firmly fixed and do not get “points” for admitting that their debating opponent taught them something or that they have consequently changed their own mind. However, one purpose of a professional conference is, indeed, for thoughtful people to consider their own assumptions and to be informed and changed by the points of view of others. In the future, perhaps debates will be supplanted with reflective conversation.

Paul Cheshire is professor of economic geography at the London School of Economics, England; Rosalind Greenstein is senior fellow and cochair of the Department of Planning and Development at the Lincoln Institute; and Stephen C. Sheppard is professor in the Department of Economics at Williams College, Massachusetts. They jointly organized the Lincoln Institute conference, “Analysis of Urban Land Markets and the Impact of Land Market Regulation,” on which this article is based.

Conference Papers

The conference participants whose papers are cited in this article are noted below. All conference papers and discussants’ comments are posted on the Lincoln Institute website (www.lincolninst.edu) where they can be downloaded for free

Burchfield, Marcy, Henry Overman, Diego Puga and Matthew A. Turner. “Sprawl?”

Cavailhès, Jean, Dominique Peeters, Evangelos Sékeris, and Jacques-François Thisse. “The Periurban City.”

Feiock, Richard E. and Antonio Taveras. “County Government Institutions and Local Land Use Regulation.”

Ihlanfeldt, Keith R. and Timothy Shaughnessy. “An Empirical Investigation of the Effects of Impact Fees on Housing and Land Markets.”

Irwin, Elena G. and Bockstael, Nancy E. “Urban Sprawl as a Spatial Economic Process.”

Shoup, Donald. “Curb Parking: The Ideal Source of Public Revenue.”