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Las ciudades norteamericanas tienen un potencial prometedor a largo plazo como centros de innovación y crecimiento, y la expansión tecnológica y de las ciencias de la salud están comenzando a compensar la erosión de varias décadas en el sector de manufactura. Las ciudades siguen siendo también lugares llenos de vitalidad, que ofrecen opciones de diseño urbano, densidad y transporte que atraen a residentes de todas las edades y procedencias. De hecho, nueve de las diez ciudades más pobladas de los Estados Unidos han crecido en población en la última década, según el censo de 2010.
Sin embargo, las perspectivas de corto plazo de las ciudades están cargadas de desafíos. Con el reciente brusco descenso en los ingresos tributarios, causado por el colapso del mercado inmobiliario en 2008 y la consiguiente crisis financiera y recesión económica, se ha hecho extraordinariamente difícil para los gobiernos locales y estatales mantener los servicios básicos, por no mencionar los planes de inversion para el futuro. Los fondos federales de la Ley de Recuperación y Reinversión de los Estados Unidos (American Recovery and Reinvestment Act, o ARRA) ayudaron a los gobiernos locales a compensar la disminución de la renta de los últimos tres años, pero los fondos de ARRA ya no están disponibles para el año fiscal entrante (una transición que se ha dado por llamar “el precipicio”), obligando a los funcionarios locales a hacer frente en su totalidad al efecto causado por el déficit de ingresos.
El Foro Periodístico sobre Suelos y el Entorno Edificado: La Próxima Ciudad (Journalists Forum on Land and the Built Environment: The Next City) de 2011 reunió a académicos, profesionales y líderes politicos con periodistas de los medios impresos y audiovisuals para explorar el tema de la infraestructura de las ciudades en el contexto de la recuperación económica presente. Este programa es producto de una asociación anual entre el Instituto Lincoln, la Fundación Nieman de Periodismo de la Universidad de Harvard, y la Facultad de Estudios de Posgrado en Diseño de Harvard.
Los debates del Foro se centraron en dos enfoques para las inversiones en infraestructura y sus servicios asociados. El primero fue un enfoque a corto plazo de las inversiones en infraestructura como estímulo fiscal, con objeto de recuperar el nivel de actividad económica y aumentar el empleo. El segundo fue un enfoque a más largo plazo en cuanto a la función que cumple la infraestructura para sustentar la transformación de las economías municipales y el aumento de competitividad y habitabilidad en un mundo globalizado.
La infraestructura y la crisis fiscal de los gobiernos locales
La necesidad del país de contar con un estímulo fiscal para impulsar la economía en 2009 llevó a plantear inversiones colosales en infraestructura para satisfacer esta necesidad. No obstante, los tipos de proyectos que se podían iniciar rápidamente a nivel local tendían a ser esfuerzos de pequeña escala, como reparación de caminos y mantenimiento de instalaciones. Las iniciativas más ambiciosas, como los trenes de alta velocidad interurbanos, no llegaron a materializarse debido a problemas presupuestarios y de endeudamiento, y porque todas ellas requerían una mayor planificación antes de poder proceder a la etapa de implementación.
Lawrence H. Summers, quien recientemente retomó su cargo de profesor en Harvard después de haber sido director del Consejo Económico Nacional en la Casa Blanca, defendió el plan de estímulo de la administración Obama, que consideró necesario para restaurar la confianza en el sistema financiero y evitar que la recesión “pasara a formar parte de los libros de historia”. No obstante, admitió que “si bien los gobiernos locales pudieron usar los fondos de estímulo para cubrir déficits de ingresos, había muy pocos proyectos grandes listos para empezar”.
Más aún, la cruda realidad de la presión fiscal es que las ciudades no pueden concentrarse en proyectos de infraestructura en gran escala y a largo plazo porque están ocupadas en recortar gastos y realizar cambios en la dotación de los serviciospúblicos locales, señaló Michael Cooper, periodista de The New York Times. Algunos ejemplos de estos recortes en los servicios incluyen el programa de licencia sin goce de sueldo todos los viernes para los maestros públicos de Hawái durante el año escolar en curso; el niño de San Diego que murió atragantado con un chicle porque la estación de bomberos más cercana estaba cerrada debido a las clausuras rotativas; las decisiones de Colorado Springs de apagar un tercio de los faroles de alumbrado todas las noches, y de subastar el helicóptero de la policía; y el pueblo de California que destituyó a su alcalde porque acondicionó las tuberías de Madera deterioradas del sistema de aguas, pero aumentó las tarifas para pagar esta reparación.
Muchas jurisdicciones también tienen problemas fiscales con la falta de financiación de los fondos de pensión y de beneficios sociales. Algunas están agravando el problema simplemente dejando de realizar los pagos anuales requeridos, una medida de emergencia adoptada, por ejemplo, por el gobernador Chris Christie en Nueva Jersey. El Mercado de bonos municipales se está tambaleando y algunas ciudades, como Harrisburg, Pensilvania, se encuentran al borde de la quiebra. Los deficits fiscales están creciendo porque los gobiernos locales han gastado lo último que les quedaba de los fondos de ARRA.
Adrian Fenty, exalcalde de Washington, DC, afirmó que las ciudades se tienen que gestionar de forma similar a un negocio, adoptando una política de rendimiento y alejándose de la política de patrocinio. Es necesario mejorar tanto la eficiencia del suministro básico de servicios como la gestión de las finanzas municipales. Dado que la educación es tan importante para el crecimiento económico de las ciudades, su administración dio prioridad a una reforma educativa, concerniente tanto a la infraestructura humana como a la física, de manera que, durante su mandato en la alcaldía, su administración clausuró el 20 por ciento de las escuelas y redujo el personal administrativo un 50 por ciento. También renegoció los contratos de los maestros, ofreciendo un sistema de remuneración basado en el mérito y sin cargo fijo, que fue aceptado por el 60 por ciento de los maestros.
Desafíos de infraestructura: El caso del tren de alta velocidad
La iniciativa de 53 mil millones de dólares del presidente Barack Obama para construir trenes de alta velocidad ha puesto en evidencia los desafíos de la crisis fiscal en los gobiernos locales. Los gobernadores de Florida, Ohio y Wisconsin devolvieron los fondos federales asignados para ferrocarriles interurbanos con el argumento de que sus gobiernos locales y estatales no estaban en condiciones de asumir los gastos de explotación y mantenimiento, al tiempo que cuestionaban las proyecciones de tráfico de pasajeros. El proyecto de tren de alta velocidad de California, si bien estaba financiado por una emisión de bonos aprobada por los votantes, se encuentra con una oposición similar debido a las cargas financieras y a las disputas sobre el uso de suelos locales.
Bruce Babbitt, exgobernador de Arizona y Secretario del Departamento del Interior de los Estados Unidos, y miembro de la junta directiva del Lincoln Institute, dijo que la campaña de la administración Obama para construir ferrocarriles interurbanos de alta velocidad fue un “desastre político”, y que la visión subyacente se tenía que reevaluar. Sugirió que se usara como modelo el Corredor del Noreste, y que un plan revisado debería incluir un sistema bien definido de refinanciación confiable, similar a la estrategia adoptada para construir el sistema de autopistas interestatales.
El pago de la infraestructura de los ferrocarriles de alta velocidad exigirá una fuente de financiamiento específica, quizás mediante un aumento en el impuesto sobre la gasoline en los estados por donde se localizarán las nuevas líneas de ferrocarril, y un sistema de recuperación de plusvalías que comprometa a los propietarios privados que se beneficiarían del aumento en el valor de sus propiedades como consecuencia de estos proyectos de obras públicas. “No tenemos el coraje político para definir nuestra prioridades”, dijo Babbitt. Hará falta un “martillo nacional” para abordar el déficit de infraestructura del país sin abdicar del control a los gobernadores y los estados.
Los ferrocarriles de alta velocidad podrán vivir o morir de acuerdo a consideraciones económicas. Petra Todorovich, directora ejecutiva de America 2050, que ha efectuado numerosos análisis del potencial del ferrocarril de alta velocidad, propuso un marco de 12 megaregiones en los Estados Unidos que representan conjuntos de áreas metropolitanas donde la mejora en el servicio de ferrocarril brindaría el mayor potencial para reemplazar al automóvil y al viaje en avión de corta duración. Los trenes de alta velocidad pueden intensificar los mercados laborales, aumentar las economías de aglomeración y aumentar la productividad, al vincular grandes centros urbanos. Japón, Francia y China se encuentran entre los países que han demostrado cómo las líneas ferroviarias interurbanas pueden promover las sinergias económicas por medio de la ubicación estratégica de las estaciones para trenes de alta velocidad y sus conexiones con otros trenes y demás sistemas de transporte.
Este argumento de aprovechamiento económico fue respaldado por Edward Rendell, exgobernador de Pensilvania y alcalde de Filadelfia, y miembro de Building America’s Future, una campaña de revitalización de infraestructura deteriorada en todo el país. Rendell argumenta que los Estados Unidos han estado descansando sobre los laureles de las inversiones pasadas, y que la revitalización de los degradados cimientos físicos de la nación es ahora una prioridad urgente. Sin una infraestructura de nivel mundial, el país no será competitivo para atraer inversiones privadas, innovación tecnológica rápida y sustentable, y un crecimiento de la productividad, y no podrá mantener el crecimiento de buenos puestos de empleo a nivel nacional.
La infraestructura y el futuro de las ciudades
A medida que la recuperación se afiance y vuelva el crecimiento económico, serán necesarias inversions en nuevas tecnologías de comunicación, energía verde, sistemas urbanos inteligentes, transporte -como los trenes de alta velocidad y los sistemas de transporte colectivo- y otras obras de infraestructura, para ayudar a las ciudades a cumplir su papel de centros de innovación, cultura y productividad.
La visión de infraestructura combinada con el planeamiento a largo plazo también es fundamental para que las ciudades se puedan adaptar al impacto inevitable de los cambios climáticos, tales como un aumento posible en el nivel del mar de un metro con las consiguientes marejadas de tempestad, inundaciones y aumento en la cantidad de eventos climáticos extremos. La infraestructura de la mayoría de las ciudades costeras es tan vieja que incluso un huracán moderado puede causar importantes daños, dijo Ed Blakely, profesor de Política Pública de la Universidad de Sídney y “exzar” de la recuperación de Nueva Orleans tras el huracán.
Las ciudades han elaborado sus planes actuales sobre la base del registro meteorológico relativamente calmo de los últimos 200 años, pero esta calma probablemente se irá reduciendo a causa del cambio climático, de modo que la infraestructura existente resultará inadecuada u obsoleta. No se debe prestart atención a los esfuerzos de reconstrucción después de catástrofes como los del huracán Katrina, dijo Blakely, sino a la reubicación, reposicionamiento y “garantías de futuro” para ciudades más resistentes.
La infraestructura como servicio de utilidad pública que mejora la habitabilidad de la ciudad se puede observar en el proyecto High Line de la ciudad de Nueva York, consistente en el cambio de uso de una línea de trenes de carga elevada que pasa por el Meatpacking District y Greenwich Village. Uno de los arquitectos de ese proyecto, Liz Diller, socia de Diller, Scofidio y Renfro, sugirió que este tipo de mejoras puede transformar las áreas urbanas, funcionar como centros para eventos sociales y culturales, y promover la actividad económica, si bien advirtió que “la arquitectura no puede resolver en realidad grandes problemas”.
A pesar de la crisis fiscal actual, se espera que las ciudades experimenten otros cambios que puedan ayudar a su recuperación económica. Entre ellos, podemos mencionar las consecuencias de la crisis inmobiliaria actual, que probablemente genere demanda de propiedades en alquiler, y el desplazamiento demográfico a medida que la generación de baby boomers se vaya jubilando y mudando a casas más pequeñas.
Arthur C. (Chris) Nelson, profesor de la Universidad de Utah, notó que ambos cambios pueden generar más demanda de estilos de vida urbanos. Por ejemplo, se puede observar ya una reducción en la demanda de casas unifamiliares ocupadas por sus propietarios en la periferia metropolitana de las Rocosas, el Sudoeste y el Sur, donde hay subdivisions completas que están virtualmente vacías. El porcentaje de familias que son dueñas de sus casas ha disminuido desde un máximo de 69,2 por ciento en 2004 a 66,4 por ciento en 2011, generando una mayor demanda de unidades de alquiler, que normalmente están ubicadas en áreas más urbanizadas.
Los desplazamientos demográficos también están relacionados con cambios en la composición de los hogares. Para 2030, los hogares unipersonales constituirán un tercio de la población, y sólo alrededor de un 25 por ciento de los hogares incluirá niños, comparado con el 45 por ciento en 1970 y el 33 por ciento en 2000. Estos cambios promoverán probablemente un ajuste significativo en los mercados y valores inmobiliarios, a medida que los baby Boomers envejezcan y pongan a la venta sus casas suburbanas y se muden a ubicaciones más urbanizadas con acceso a transporte público y a barrios peatonales. Al mismo tiempo, los próximos cambios en los mercados hipotecarios y la reforma de Fannie Mae y Freddie Mac puedan llegar a aumentar el costo del financiamiento hipotecario (y de ser propietario de una casa) e inducir a las familias más jóvenes a alquilar en vez de comprar.
Las ciudades como motor de crecimiento
La inversión en infraestructura para respaldar las regiones metropolitanas puede justificarse también por la sorprendente fortaleza de las propias ciudades. El resurgimiento urbano se puede observar en el crecimiento de los ingresos de profesionales altamente especializados, la disminución relativamente modesta de los precios de las viviendas y hasta en los recientes incrementos en varias ciudades prósperas, y en una concentración de innovación en las áreas urbanas, dijo el profesor de economía de Harvard Edward Glaeser. “Podríamos mudarnos a cualquier lugar que se adecúe a nuestra biofilia”, dijo. “Pero seguimos atraídos por las ciudades”.
El crecimiento de la población urbana está altamente correlacionado con los ingresos urbanos promedio, los niveles de educación y la participación en la tasa de empleo en pequeñas empresas, a medida que las ciudades siguen atrayendo a emprendedores y promoviendo la productividad. Si los ingresos en otros lugares fueran como los de la ciudad de Nueva York, el PIB nacional aumentaría un 43 por ciento, dijo Glaeser. Las ciudades también resultarán atractivas por su valor medioambiental, por ser lugares de densidad y transporte público, con un uso relativamente menor de energía per cápita y menor emisión de carbono que las áreas suburbanas y rurales. G laeser rechazó las normas de edificación y las regulaciones restrictivas que desalientan el aumento de densidad y hacen que los barrios urbanos antiguos de baja altura estén “fosilizados en ámbar”. También recalcó que la educación pública sigue siendo la inversión más importante que las ciudades pueden y deben hacer para mejorar el crecimiento económico y la calidad de vida.
A medida que se recuperen la economía nacional y los ingresos de los gobiernos locales, una de las prioridades claves será equilibrar los gastos actuales en servicios y las inversiones de más largo plazo. El crecimiento económico facilitará el financiamiento de inversiones en infraestructura, pero éstas serán necesarias a su vez para aumentar el crecimiento económico. El desafío será encontrar una manera políticamente viable de romper este círculo vicioso.
Sobre los autores
Gregory K. Ingram es presidente y gerente ejecutivo del Instituto Lincoln de Políticas de Suelo.
Anthony Flint es fellow y director de asuntos públicosen el Instituto Lincoln de Políticas de Suelo.
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Stephanie Pollack, subdirectora del Centro Dukakis de Política Urbana y Regional de la Universidad Northeastern, detectó una curiosa anomalía cuando analizó los resultados de una encuesta sobre las necesidades de transporte público de los residentes de bajos ingresos en Massachusetts. La encuesta pedía que se indicara el principal modo de transporte, y daba las opciones tradicionales, como tomar el tren o el autobús. Pero no había ninguna casilla para marcar lo que resultó ser el modo más común de transporte: docenas de encuestados respondieron “el automóvil de otra persona”.
Para Pollack, este descubrimiento subrayó la dificultad de diseñar sistemas de transporte acordes con las necesidades de la población, así como la necesidad de contar con mejores maneras para medir y hacer participar a la gente para poder suplir las verdaderas necesidades de transporte público de los usuarios. Como parte de un proyecto llamado The Toll of Transportation (La carga del transporte), el Centro Dukakis trató de determinar cómo llegan los residentes adonde tienen que ir en ciudades como Lynn, Worcester, Springfield y East Boston. Pero la categoría “automóvil de otra persona” no formaba parte de ninguna lista de datos estándar de transporte. “Medimos la equidad en educación y en sanidad, pero no en transporte”, dijo Pollack a los escritores y editores reunidos para el Foro periodístico sobre el suelo y el entorno edificado, realizado del 28 al 29 de marzo de 2014 en Cambridge, Massachusetts. “No tenemos el concepto de cómo debería ser un sistema de transporte ‘justo’”.
El tema del foro fue la infraestructura: para quién es, cómo planificarla y pagarla, y por qué necesitamos inversiones más inteligentes en los entornos urbanos del siglo XXI. Esta fue la séptima edición de esta reunión para periodistas de dos días de duración, patrocinada por el Instituto Lincoln, la Fundación Nieman de Periodismo de la Universidad Harvard, y la Escuela de Posgrado de Diseño (Graduate School of Design o GSD) de la Universidad Harvard.
Pollock compartió también con los participantes su investigación sobre el desarrollo orientado al transporte público (transit-oriented development o TOD), una política que se fomenta cada vez más en las ciudades por medio de reformas de zonificación e incentivos económicos. Los datos revelaron algunos resultados problemáticos sobre el uso y la equidad del transporte público. Los residentes de ingresos más altos que se mudan a zonas TOD (que se convierten rápidamente en lugares caros para vivir) en general no usan transporte público, mientras que los residentes que sí lo usan tienen que residir más lejos de las estaciones, en barrios económicamente más asequibles. Este desplazamiento aumenta el costo y la complejidad de sus viajes para ir al trabajo y volver. Además, en un tercio de las zonas TOD estudiadas, el uso del transporte público se redujo después de haberse introducido el desarrollo.
En otra presentación, Judith Grant Long, profesora asociada de Planificación Urbana en GSD, analizó megaeventos, como la Copa del Mundo y las Olimpiadas, que inducen a las ciudades a invertir miles de millones de dólares en infraestructura. Hay poca evidencia de un retorno positivo a la inversión en términos de puestos de trabajo permanente, ingresos o incluso la imagen de la ciudad, indicó Long. El Comité Olímpico Internacional podría ayudar a las ciudades a planificar mejor y organizar juegos “del tamaño correcto”, sugirió. Barcelona, Roma, Tokio, Múnich, Montreal y Londres han podido transformar con cierto éxito las villas olímpicas en áreas de uso a largo plazo que benefician a un sector más amplio de la población una vez que se acaban los juegos.
Las sociedades público-privadas, la construcción y operación privada de rutas y los sistemas de peaje han sido innovaciones recientes para el financiamiento de infraestructura, dijo José A. Gómez-Ibáñez, profesor de GSD y de la Escuela Kennedy de Harvard. Pero se puede decir que desde que se completó el sistema de rutas interestatales en los EE.UU., el papel del gobierno federal no ha sido claro. El desafío estriba en demostrarle al público quién se beneficiará de los proyectos, para poder justificar su financiamiento.
Los gobiernos deberán ser más inteligentes y enfocar bien el objetivo al construir futuros sistemas de transporte y otros tipos de infraestructura, sobre todo cuando las áreas metropolitanas tratan de aumentar su resiliencia en vista de los impactos inevitables del cambio climático, declararon varios ponentes.
Rich Cavallaro, presidente de Skanska USA Civil Inc., citó la calificación de D+ (en una escala de A a F) en el último “boletín de calificaciones” de infraestructura emitido por la Sociedad Americana de Ingenieros Civiles. Dicho grupo estima que el país tendrá que gastar 1,6 billones de dólares más de lo que indican los planes actualmente para poder contar con una infraestructura de nivel aceptable en todos los sectores. En contraste con proyectos inmensamente caros, como esclusas similares a las del río Támesis en el Reino Unido, Cavallaro se inclina por tomar medidas más asequibles, como equipar a los túneles del metro con tapones inflables gigantes, elevar las rejas de ventilación y subestaciones eléctricas, y diseñar los garajes de estacionamiento e instalaciones similares para que se puedan inundarse y limpiarse después, cuando las aguas retrocedan.
Varios países realizan una mejor tarea de coordinación y recuperación en casos de desastres, según las encuestas realizadas por Robert B. Olshansky, profesor de Planificación Urbana y Regional de la Universidad de Illinois en Urbana-Champaign, y Laurie A. Johnson, presidenta de Laurie Johnson Consulting|Research. La construcción de resiliencia a largo plazo como parte de este proceso fue objeto de un reciente informe del Instituto Lincoln, titulado Lecciones de Sandy.
Susannah C. Drake, presidenta de dlandstudio pllc, describió enfoques creativos, como el rediseño de la protección de la costa en el sur de Manhattan y el sellado de trazados subterráneos que pasan debajo de barrios urbanos. La nación no puede simplemente reconstruir lo que existía antes de un desastre, sobre todo ahora que los avances en tecnología han abaratado el costo de infraestruc-tura, en comparación con las inversiones masivas que se realizaron en el New Deal. Marcus M. Quigley, presidente de Geosyntec Consultants, exploró el uso de tecnología inteligente y controles dinámicos para transformar la construcción de grandes obras de infraestructura. “Podemos cambiar la manera de construir la infraestructura para que actúe a nuestro favor”, dijo. “Cada vez que repavimentamos una calle o acera, estamos perdiendo una oportunidad”.
También se habló sobre el lado negativo de la infraestructura inteligente. Ryan Ellis, fellow posdoctoral de investigación en el Centro Belfer de Ciencias y Asuntos Internacionales de la Escuela Kennedy de Harvard, abordó el complejo problema de seguridad e infraestructura, revelando el submundo de ciberataques, vulnerabilidades y “días cero”. Los hackers espían el correo electrónico continuamente y podrían sabotear nuestra red eléctrica, el control del tráfico aéreo y los sistemas financieros. La clave, dijo Ellis, está en “diseñar ahora teniendo en cuenta la seguridad”, porque “es difícil incorporar la seguridad después”. Y añadió que los planificadores involucrados en construir ciudades inteligentes deben tener muy presente el tema de la seguridad.
El impacto interconectado de la urbanización global requiere un marco más amplio para la infraestructura urbana que exceda las áreas metropolitanas individuales, dijo Neil Brenner, profesor de Teoría Urbana en GSD. “Tenemos que actualizar nuestro mapa cognitivo de la urbanización”, dijo. Pierre Bélanger, profesor asociado de Arquitectura del Paisaje de GSD, predijo que trabajar con la naturaleza -incluso dejando que ciertas áreas abandonadas vuelvan a su estado silvestre- podría eclipsar el enfoque tradicional de controlar el agua y canalizar los arroyos.
El liderazgo político es la clave para reinventar y diseñar nueva infraestructura en el entorno urbano, dijo la arquitecta paisajista Margie Ruddick. Afortunadamente, los alcaldes son algunos de los líderes más innovadores para abordar estos tipos de desafíos, dijo David Gergen, analista senior de CNN y director del Centro de Liderazgo Público en la Escuela Kennedy de Harvard. Es raro que un alcalde llegue a ser presidente, pero resuelven problemas prácticos importantes, dijo Gergen, que fue el orador invitado en la velada nocturna tradicional del foro en la Casa Walter Lippmann de la Fundación Nieman. “Es en las ciudades donde se están llevando a cabo los experimentos”, dijo.
Janette Sadik-Khan, ex comisionada de la Ciudad de Nueva York y en la actualidad miembro de Bloomberg Associates, también se refirió a las dificultades políticas de transformar el paisaje urbano. Hizo notar que las ciclovías, el programa de bicicletas compartidas y los espacios peatonales en Times Square provocaron la oposición por parte de automovilistas, dueños de negocios y otros que consideraban estas iniciativas poco prácticas y “vagamente francesas”. Sin embargo, muchos comerciantes han reportado desde entonces un gran aumento de su actividad debido a un mayor trán-sito de peatones, y que las sillas portátiles de las áreas peatonales están continuamente ocupadas.
“Cuando se ofrecen más opciones, la gente vota con sus pies, con sus asientos y con los candados de sus bicicletas”, expresó. “Los neoyorquinos han modificado las expectativas respecto a sus calles”.
El foro incluye tradicionalmente dos sesiones dedicadas a la “práctica del arte”. Brian McGrory, editor de The Boston Globe, describió los esfuerzos para integrar un periodismo “ardientemente relevante” en un modelo de negocio digital que sea sostenible. The Globe tiene más lectores que nunca, expresó. Inga Saffron, crítico de arquitectura de The Philadelphia Inquirer, ganadora del Premio Pulitzer poco después del foro, junto con el crítico de arquitectura Blair Kamin del Chicago Tribune, Jerold Kayden de GSD y Gregory K. Ingram y Armando Carbonell, ambos del Instituto Lincoln, mantuvieron un coloquio sobre la interacción entre periodistas y fuentes expertas.
Varios participantes de los 40 periodistas y fellows de Nieman publicaron notas sobre el foro, incluyendo Roger K. Lewis del Washington Post, Tim Bryant del St. Louis Post-Dispatch, Christopher Swope de Citiscope y Josh Stephens de Planetizen.
Anthony Flint es fellow y director de relaciones públicas en el Lincoln Institute of Land Policy, y autor de Wrestling with Moses: How Jane Jacobs Took on New York’s Master Builder and Transformed the American City (Luchando con Moisés: Cómo Jane Jacobs se enfrentó al Jefe de Construcciones de Nueva York y transformó la ciudad norteamericana) (Random House, 2011). Fue fellow Loeb en 2000–2001.
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Driven by an awareness of population expansion and the difficulties that follow growth, Oregon’s Departments of Transportation and of Land Conservation and Development created the “Smart Development” program. The state retained Leland Consulting Group and Livable Oregon to define the goals of Smart Development, to identify obstacles to its execution and to enjoin the development community in discussions about how to implement its goals.
Smart Development is land use that:
In examining over 60 projects across the country that attempt comprehensive solutions to problems of urban growth, the consultant team looked at examples of “new urbanism,” as well as infill development, subdivisions, affordable housing, adaptive re-use and neighborhood revitalization. While common factors exist among all projects, none of the ones that are successful for their developers satisfy all Smart Development goals at once. The good news is that careful attention to local market conditions and demographics can result in successful projects that do satisfy many of these goals.
Why Smart Development Raises Financing Questions
Projects that satisfy some goals are unlikely to satisfy others because the goals may have different land use solutions which—when built in current markets—are in conflict. Proponents of neotraditional, transit-oriented, small-lot, pedestrian-oriented, mixed-use and grid-platted development have bundled these styles as a single concept. Developers and lenders do not understand the markets, values and risks for these hybrid products.
When we surveyed lenders about the factors that affect their decision to finance Smart Development projects, they explained unequivocally that financing of innovation required clear limits on the risk the lender could accept. While factors such as preleasing and on-site management were considered important, lenders strongly preferred working with a developer who had a track record, financial capacity and experience in the product type.
Lenders also expressed doubts about the willingness of the secondary market to lend on innovative projects. The problem is not innovation in physical design itself, but lenders’ anxieties about FannieMae’s “pass-through” requirement: the bank is financially responsible for the project through foreclosure of the asset. FannieMae support does not insulate the bank from the risk of default. Since banks do not want to own real estate, innovative project types that cannot show strong track records cause anxiety that is not allayed by securitization.
Overcoming the Obstacles
There are three technical obstacles to financing Smart Development:
A fourth obstacle is financial, relating to the first phase provision of new infrastructure.
Appraisal and Comparables: Standard appraisals usually focus on the housing product without accounting for the economic value produced by higher quality infrastructure, adjacent services, pedestrian amenities, and access to transit. By comparing only housing units, appraisals allot them the value that they would have in adjoining subdivisions that contain none of the amenities. Yet, new projects that we reviewed were often higher in price than the surrounding market. The quality of new designs may justify pricing, but appraisals based on the local area did not support the same percentage of purchase price as for nearby units. Smart Development projects also required proportionately higher cash down-payments, making the units harder to buy (and harder for the developer to sell).
It must be emphasized that Smart Development features are positive attributes that have long-term effects on value. Appraisal is regularly performed involving regression equations to model the economic value of positive externalities and could be applied to this area to produce new standards for evaluation of Smart Development. This process needs research but is well within the professional purview of the appraisal community.
New Market Studies: Smart Development, with its sophisticated land use and concepts such as inclusion of retail into subdivision development, attracts different demographic groups than standard development. Income levels per capita are higher, household sizes are smaller, and the use of transit and other services per person is often greater.
To overcome feasibility and appraisal obstacles, it is useful to consider Smart Development not as a single market concept but as a series of land use solutions that incorporate traditional real estate products in innovative ways. The market for the products can then be assessed in the same way as existing similar land uses that have attracted the demographic groups noted above—older neighborhoods with the sort of land use proposed in these projects. Through this method it is possible to avoid the pitfalls of “trend” studies that are unable to assess the market for new products.
Presentation of Smart Development to Lenders: The business plan for new products describes how products were arrived at in response to market niches and supporting demographics and sales potential. Every aspect of the business is revealed: project principals and roles; financial structure; applied start-up capital; reserves for operational deficits; and projections of revenues, cash flows and profits. The plan illustrates potential risks and suggests mitigations for risk should conditions not meet expectations.
Presentation of real estate development is typically done through market trend studies and architectural drawings. Neither of these modes addresses the issues raised in a business plan. It may be worthwhile for proactive lenders to consider offering assistance with business planning and presentation of innovative projects to alleviate the anxieties of capital investors and loan boards.
First Phase Financial Feasibility: In many western U.S. cities, grid street plans were built by the city and then builders provided the houses. After World War II, American cities stopped creating streets and the developers began providing the local infrastructure. The major public infrastructure dollars were funneled through federal agencies into regional infrastructure improvements (freeways) which sped private development into fringe areas.
It is now understood that highways and major arterials do not eliminate congestion but rather act as a subsidy for congestion-producing development. New requirements for grid streets, pedestrian amenities, sidewalks and parking strips with trees can make development either unaffordable to median buyers or financially infeasible, and there are no local support mechanisms equal to the magnitude of highway funding.
If the goals of Smart Development are serious social goals, then some level of first phase credit enhancement in exchange for fulfillment of social goals is appropriate. Such credit enhancement would serve to produce land use with the long-term benefits of lowered social cost through reduction of congestion and auto use and a better quality of life.
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Edward H. Starkie, principal, and Bonnie Gee Yosick, associate, conduct economic analysis and research on downtown redevelopment for Leland Consulting Group, 325 Northwest 22nd Street, Portland, OR 97210; 503/222-1600.
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American cities have promising long-term prospects as hubs of innovation and growth, with expansion in technology and health sciences beginning to offset the decades-long erosion of manufacturing. Cities also remain places of vitality, offering urban design, density, and trans-port options that attract residents of all ages and backgrounds. In fact, nine of the ten most populous U.S. cities gained population over the last decade, according to the 2010 U.S. Census.
Yet the short-term prospects for cities are fraught with challenges. The recent sharp decline in tax revenues, caused by the 2008 housing market collapse and related financial crisis and economic slowdown, has made it extraordinarily difficult for state and local governments to maintain basic services, let alone plan for investments in infrastructure. Federal funds from the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act (ARRA) helped local governments offset revenue declines in the past three years, but ARRA funds are no longer available for the coming fiscal year (a transition now termed “the cliff”), leaving local officials to confront the full force of revenue shortfalls.
The 2011 Journalists Forum on Land and the Built Environment: The Next City brought scholars, practitioners, and political leaders together with print and broadcast journalists to explore the theme of infrastructure for cities in the context of the ongoing economic recovery. This program is an annual partnership of the Lincoln Institute of Land Policy, the Nieman Foundation for Journalism at Harvard University, and Harvard Graduate School of Design.
Two roles for infrastructure investments and related services permeated discussions at the Forum. First was the near-term role of investment in infrastructure as a fiscal stimulus aimed at turning around the economy and increasing employment. Second was the longer-term role that infrastructure plays in sustaining the transformation of municipal economies and increasing their competitiveness and livability in a globalized world.
Infrastructure and the Local Government Fiscal Crisis
The country’s need for fiscal stimulus to jump-start the economy in 2009 raised the prospect of massive infrastructure investments to help meet that need. However, the kinds of projects that could be launched quickly at the local level tended to be smaller-scale efforts, such as roadway repairs and facilities maintenance. More ambitious initiatives, such as intercity high-speed rail, failed to materialize due to spending and debt concerns and because much more design was needed before implementation could proceed.
Lawrence H. Summers, who recently returned to his professorship at Harvard after being director of the White House National Economic Council, defended the Obama administration’s stimulus plans, which he said were necessary to restore confidence in the financial system and keep the recession “out of the history books.” However, he said, “while local governments were able to use stimulus funds to cover revenue shortfalls, there were very few large shovel-ready projects.”
Moreover, the grim reality of fiscal stress is that cities cannot focus on large-scale, long-range infrastructure projects because they are struggling to cut spending and reform the delivery of local public services, noted Michael Cooper, reporter for The New York Times. Some examples of lost services include the Hawaii program that furloughs public school teachers every Friday through this school year; the San Diego boy who died choking on a gumball because a nearby fire station had been shuttered on a rotating basis; Colorado Springs’ decision to turn off a third of its streetlights each night and to auction off the police helicopter; and the California town that recalled its mayor because he revamped the city’s failing wooden pipes in its water system, but increased water fees to pay for it.
Many jurisdictions also have ongoing fiscal problems with the underfunding of pension funds and benefits. Some are worsening the problems simply by not making the required annual payments, a stopgap applied by Governor Chris Christie in New Jersey, among others. The municipal bond market faces tumult and some cities, like Harrisburg, Pennsylvania, are on the brink of bankruptcy. Fiscal deficits are growing because local governments have now expended the last of their
ARRA funds.
Adrian Fenty, former mayor of Washington, DC, said cities need to be run on a more business-like basis, moving to the politics of performance and away from the politics of patronage. Improvements are needed in both the efficiency of basic service delivery and the management of city finances. Because education is so important to the economic growth of cities, his administration gave priority to education reform—human infrastructure as well as physical infrastructure. During his term as mayor, his administration closed 20 percent of the schools and reduced administrative personnel by 50 percent. He also revamped teacher contracts, offering a merit pay system without tenure that 60 percent of the teachers opted to join.
Infrastructure Challenges: The Case of High-Speed Rail
President Barack Obama’s $53 billion high-speed rail initiative has brought the challenges of the local government fiscal crisis into sharp relief. Governors in Florida, Ohio, and Wisconsin returned the federal funding allocated to those states for intercity rail, claiming that their state and local governments could not possibly afford the resulting maintenance and operating costs, and questioning ridership projections. The high-speed rail project in California, though financed by a voter-approved bond issue, faces similar opposition because of financial burdens and local land use disputes.
Bruce Babbitt, former governor of Arizona and secretary of the U.S. Department of Interior, and a member of the Lincoln Institute board of directors, said the Obama administration’s campaign for high-speed intercity rail was a “political disaster,” and that the underlying vision needed a reassessment. He suggested that the Northeast Corridor should be the model, and that a revised plan should include a well-defined system of reliable financing—similar to the approach used to build the interstate highway system.
Paying for high-speed rail infrastructure will require a dedicated funding stream, perhaps from an increase in the gasoline tax in the states where the new rail lines would be located, and a system of value capture to engage private landowners who benefit from increases in property value as a result of such public works projects. “We don’t have the political courage to define our priorities,” Babbitt said. It will take a “national hammer” to address the nation’s infrastructure deficit without abdicating control to governors and states.
High-speed rail may live or die based on economic considerations. Petra Todorovich, executive director of America 2050, which has issued numerous analyses of high-speed rail’s potential, proposed a framework of 12 U.S. megaregions that represent collections of metropolitan areas where enhanced rail service offers the greatest potential for replacing automobile and short-haul airline travel. High-speed rail can deepen labor markets, increase agglomeration economies, and boost productivity by linking urban centers. Japan, France, and China are among the countries that have demonstrated how rail lines between major cities can foster economic synergies through the strategic location of high-speed rail stations and their connections to commuter rail and transit.
This economic payoff argument was seconded by Edward Rendell, former governor of Pennsylvania and mayor of Philadelphia, who is part of Building America’s Future, a campaign for investments in crumbling infrastructure nationwide. Rendell argued that the United States has been resting on its past investments, and that shoring up the nation’s decaying physical foundations is now an urgent priority. Without world-class infrastructure, the country will not be competitive in attracting private investment, sustaining rapid technological innovation and productivity growth, or maintaining the growth of good jobs domestically.
Infrastructure and the Future of Cities
As the recovery continues and economic growth returns, investments in new communication technology, green energy, smart urban systems, transport such as high-speed rail and mass transit, and other infrastructure will be needed to help cities fulfill their roles as the centers of innovation, culture, and productivity.
The vision of infrastructure combined with long-range planning is also a central theme in how cities can adapt to the inevitable impacts of climate change, including a possible one-meter sea level rise and associated storm surges, flooding, and increasing numbers of extreme weather events. Infrastructure in most coastal cities is so old that even a moderate storm event can do extensive damage, said Ed Blakely, public policy professor at the University of Sydney and former hurricane recovery czar in New Orleans.
Cities have been able to base their current plans on the relatively calm meteorological record of the last 200 years, but that calm is likely to erode with climate change, making much of the existing infrastructure inadequate or obsolete. Attention should not be focused on rebuilding after disasters like Hurricane Katrina, Blakely said, but on relocating, repositioning, and “future-proofing” for more resilient cities.
Infrastructure as an amenity that improves city livability is seen in New York’s High Line project, the conversion of an elevated freight line through the Meatpacking District and Greenwich Village. One of the architects on that project, Liz Diller, principal in Diller, Scofidio + Renfro, suggested that such retrofits can transform urban areas, provide a focal point for social and cultural events, and promote economic activity—though she cautioned that “architecture can’t really fix big problems.”
In spite of the current fiscal crisis, cities are expected to experience other changes that may aid their economic recovery. Among these are the fallout from the current housing crisis that is likely to spur demand for rental units and the demographic shift as the baby boom generation enters retirement age and begins to downsize housing choices.
Professor Arthur C. (Chris) Nelson, professor at the University of Utah, noted that both changes may generate more demand for urban lifestyles. For example, the current reduction in demand for owner-occupied, single-family houses at the metropolitan periphery is evident in the Intermountain West, Southwest, and South, where entire subdivisions are virtually empty. The percent of households owning homes has declined from a high of 69.2 percent in 2004 to 66.4 percent in 2011, fostering more demand for rental units that typically are located in more urbanized areas.
Demographic shifts are also related to changes in household composition. By 2030 single-person households will constitute one-third of the population, and only about one out of four households will include children, a decline from 45 percent with children in 1970 and 33 percent in 2000. These changes are likely to foster a significant adjustment in housing markets and values as aging baby boomers offer their suburban houses for sale and move to more urbanized locations with access to transit and walkable neighborhoods. At the same time, upcoming changes in mortgage markets and the reform of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac may make mortgage financing (and homeownership) more costly and cause younger families to choose renting over owning.
Cities as Engines of Growth
Investing in infrastructure to support metropolitan regions might have an additional rationale grounded in the surprising resilience of cities themselves. The ongoing urban resurgence is visible in the income growth of highly skilled professionals, the relatively modest housing price declines and even recent increases in several prospering cities, and a concentration of innovation in urban areas, said Harvard economics professor Edward Glaeser. “We could move anywhere that suits our biophilia,” he said. “Yet we keep flocking to cities.”
Urban population growth is highly correlated with average urban incomes, education levels, and the share of employment in small firms as cities continue to draw entrepreneurs and foster productivity. If incomes everywhere were like those in New York City, the national GDP would rise 43 percent, Glaeser said. Cities will also continue to be prized for their environmental value as places of density and transit, reflecting relatively lower per capita energy use and carbon emissions than suburban and rural areas. Glaeser argued against restrictive zoning and regulations that discourage greater density and leave older, low-rise urban neighborhoods “frozen in amber.” He also stressed that public education remains the most important investment that cities can and should make to enhance their continued economic growth and quality of life.
As both the national economy and local government revenues recover, a key priority will be to balance expenditures between current services and longer-term investments. Economic growth will make it easier to finance investments in infrastructure, but investments in infrastructure are needed to increase economic growth. The challenge is to find a politically feasible way of breaking into this virtuous circle.
About the Authors
Gregory K. Ingram is president and CEO of the Lincoln Institute of Land Policy.
Anthony Flint is fellow and director of public affairs at the Lincoln Institute of Land Policy.
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Stephanie Pollack, associate director of the Dukakis Center for Urban and Regional Policy at Northeastern University, noticed something seriously amiss when she analyzed the results of a survey on the public transportation needs of lower-income residents in Massachusetts. The survey asked respondents to indicate their main mode of transport, and there were the traditional choices like taking the train or the bus. But there was no box to check for what turned out to be the most common means of getting around: Dozens of respondents had written in “someone else’s car.”
For Pollack, the discovery underscored the difficulties of matching transportation systems to realities on the ground as well as the need for better metrics and engagement to satisfy the true needs of those who use public transportation. As part of a project called The Toll of Transportation, the Dukakis Center sought to determine how residents get where they need to go in such cities as Lynn, Worcester, Springfield, and East Boston. But “someone else’s car” was not a category recognized in standard transportation data collection. “We measure equity in education and health care, but not in transportation,” Pollack told writers and editors gathered for the Journalists Forum on Land and the Built Environment, in Cambridge, March 28 to 29, 2014. “We have no concept of how a transportation system would be ‘fair.’”
The theme of the forum was infrastructure—who it’s for, how to plan and pay for it, and why we need smarter investments for 21st-century urban environments. It was the seventh year of the annual two-day gathering for journalists, hosted by the Lincoln Institute, the Nieman Foundation for Journalism at Harvard University, and Harvard University’s Graduate School of Design (GSD).
Pollock also shared research on transit-oriented development (TOD)—a policy increasingly encouraged by cities through zoning reform and financial incentives. The data revealed some troubling outcomes in terms of equity and transit use: The higher-income residents who move into TOD areas, which rapidly become expensive places to live, don’t tend to use the transit; whereas residents who do use transit must move farther from the stations, to more affordable neighborhoods—a displacement that raises the costs and complexity of their commutes. In a third of TOD sites studied, ridership actually went down after new development went in.
In another presentation, Judith Grant Long, associate professor of urban planning at the GSD, looked at mega-events, such as the World Cup and the Olympics, which also inspire cities to invest billions in infrastructure. There is little evidence of a payoff in terms of permanent jobs, revenues, or even branding, she said. The International Olympic Committee could help cities plan better and deliver more compact, “right-sized” games, Long suggested. Barcelona, Rome, Tokyo, Munich, Montreal, and London all have had some success in transforming Olympic villages for long-term use that benefits a broader population after the games are over.
Public-private partnerships, private roadway building and operation, and tolling systems have marked recent innovations in the financing of infrastructure, said Jose A. Gomez-Ibanez, professor at the GSD and the Harvard Kennedy School. But, arguably, since the completion of the interstate highway system, the federal role has been unclear; the challenge is showing the public who benefits from projects, in order to justify how they are paid for, he said.
Governments are going to have to become smarter and more targeted in building future transportation and other types of infrastructure, especially as metropolitan areas seek to become more resilient in the face of the inevitable impacts of climate change, several presenters said.
Rich Cavallaro, president of Skanska USA Civil, Inc., cited the D+ grade in the latest “report card” on infrastructure issued by the American Society of Civil Engineers. That group estimates that the nation needs to spend $1.6 trillion more than currently planned to bring infrastructure across all sectors to an acceptable level. In contrast to hugely expensive projects, such as floodgates similar to those on the Thames River in the United Kingdom, Cavallaro spoke in favor of more achievable steps, such as equipping subway tunnels with giant inflatable plugs, raising up grates and power substations, and designing parking garages and similar facilities so they can be flooded and then cleaned up when the waters recede.
Several nations are better at coordinating disaster relief and recovery efforts, according to surveys by Robert B. Olshansky, professor of Urban and Regional Planning at the University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign, and Laurie A. Johnson, principal at Laurie Johnson Consulting|Research. Building long-term resilience as part of that process was the subject of the recent Lincoln Institute report, Lessons from Sandy.
Susannah C. Drake, principal at dlandstudio pllc, detailed creative approaches such as retooling the waterfront apron of lower Manhattan and capping sunken highway trenches through urban neighborhoods. The nation cannot simply seek to rebuild what existed before a disaster—especially now that advances in technology make infrastructure less expensive, compared to the massive investments of the New Deal. Marcus M. Quigley, principal at Geosyntec Consultants, explored how smart technology and dynamic, intelligent controls can transform major facilities. “We can change the way our infrastructure acts on our behalf,” he said. “Every time we repave a street or a sidewalk, we’re burning an opportunity.”
The dark side of smart infrastructure was also discussed. Ryan Ellis, postdoctoral research fellow at the Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs at the Harvard Kennedy School, addressed the complex challenge of security and infrastructure, revealing the cloak-and-dagger world of cyber attacks, vulnerabilities, and zero days. Hackers routinely hijack emails and can sabotage our power grid, air traffic control, and financial systems. The key, Ellis said, is to “design for security now,” because “it’s hard to bolt on after the fact.” For planners engaged in building smart cities, he said, security must be part of the conversation.
The interconnected impacts of global urbanization require a broader framework for urban infrastructure, outside the “box” of individual metropolitan areas, said Neil Brenner, professor of urban theory at the GSD. “We need to update our cognitive map of urbanization,” he said. Pierre Bélanger, associate professor of landscape architecture at the GSD, predicted that working with nature—and even allowing certain abandoned areas to return to a wild state—would eclipse the traditional approach of controlling water and putting streams in pipes.
Political leadership is the key to reinventing and designing new infrastructure in the urban environment, said landscape architect Margie Ruddick. Fortunately, mayors have become some of the most innovative leaders to take on these kinds of challenges, said David Gergen, senior analyst at CNN and director of the Center for Public Leadership at the Harvard Kennedy School. Mayors may not routinely become president, but they are practical problem solvers at center stage, said Gergen, who was the guest speaker at the forum’s traditional evening gathering at the Nieman Foundation’s Walter Lippmann House. “Cities are where the experimentation is taking place,” he said.
The political difficulties of transforming the urban landscape were also noted by Janette Sadik-Khan, former transportation commissioner of New York City and now at Bloomberg Associates. She noted that bike lanes, a bike-share program, and car-free spaces in Times Square had prompted opposition from drivers, business owners, and others who viewed the initiative as impractical and “vaguely French.” But many shopkeepers have since reported a big uptick in business because of increased foot traffic, and the moveable chairs in the car-free areas are continually occupied.
“When you expand options, people vote with their feet, their seats, and their bike share key fobs,” she said. “New Yorkers have changed in what they expect from their streets.”
The forum traditionally includes two sessions devoted to “practicing the craft.” Brian McGrory, editor of The Boston Globe, detailed efforts to integrate “searingly relevant” journalism in a digital business model that is sustainable. The Globe has more readers than ever, he said. Inga Saffron, architecture critic for The Philadelphia Inquirer, who won the Pulitzer Prize shortly after the forum, joined Chicago Tribune architecture critic Blair Kamin, Jerold Kayden from the GSD, and Gregory K. Ingram and Armando Carbonell from the Lincoln Institute in a conversation on the interaction between journalists and expert sources. Several participants among the 40 journalists and Nieman fellows filed dispatches, including Roger K. Lewis at The Washington Post, Tim Bryant at the St. Louis Post-Dispatch, Christopher Swope at Citiscope, and Josh Stephens writing for Planetizen.
Anthony Flint is a fellow and director of public affairs at the Lincoln Institute of Land Policy, and author of Wrestling with Moses: How Jane Jacobs Took on New York’s Master Builder and Transformed the American City (Random House, 2011). He was a Loeb Fellow in 2000–2001.
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Seeking to address housing affordability and transportation congestion issues, the executive directors of the 25 largest public-sector metropolitan regional councils gathered in Los Angeles in September 2003 for their second regional forum. The three-day conference was sponsored by the Lincoln Institute, the Fannie Mae Foundation and the National Association of Regional Councils (NARC).
Case Studies
The opening session featured presentations on three case studies that illustrate different approaches to growth and development: Atlanta, Chicago and Los Angeles.
The Atlanta region is home to 3.6 million people in 10 counties. Charles Krautler, of the Atlanta Regional Commission (ARC), noted that the commission was created in 1947 and in 1952 presented its first regional plan. “It proposed a tight development pattern with an urban growth boundary close to where I-285 circles our region,” he explained. “It was rejected outright. Instead, we adopted a plan with growth in concentric circles. We did not have unplanned sprawl, we planned for it and we got it.” However, he continued, “now we have two societies. Many people moved to the northern part of the region and took their wealth with them. We encouraged them to trade long drives for big houses. But poverty remains concentrated in Atlanta and Fulton County.”
No slowdown is forecasted for 2030, as the population is expected to grow to 5.4 million people and employment to 3.1 million jobs. That means more congestion, and Atlanta faces other constraints as well. The region is the largest metropolitan area with the smallest water supply, and there is no opportunity for significant expansion of the supply. “If we keep doing what we’re doing, then what we have today is the best its going to be,” Krautler stated. “We’re trying to encourage a movement back to the city. After losing population for the last 30 years, the city has grown by 16,000 since the 2000 census. In a further effort to rewind the sprawl clock, ARC has designated 44 activity/town centers as part of its regional development plan linking transportation and land use. Each center receives planning and, more important, infrastructure resources to concentrate development.”
The Chicago metropolitan area is the “hub of the Midwest,” according to Ron Thomas of the Northeast Illinois Planning Commission (NIPC). With more than 8 million residents in 6 counties with 272 incorporated municipalities, Chicago has built its strength around the waters of Lake Michigan. The NIPC region hosts almost 4.5 million jobs and 62 companies that are listed in the Fortune 1000. The 4,000-square-mile region stretches north to Wisconsin and east to Indiana. And yet, Thomas laments, “our urban growth ‘edge’ is beyond our region. That means that the people who are attempting to control this growth are not at our table.”
Building on the Burnham plan, the first regional plan in the country created in 1909, Chicago’s urban fabric is held together by a series of 200 town centers, an extensive rail network and an expansive highway system. The good news, Thomas said, is that “90 percent of the region’s population is within one mile of a transit line.” Three satellite cities, Elgin, Joliet and Aurora, create a polycentric region around Chicago’s western fringe. The net result is that the region still has the capacity to absorb the projected growth of more than 2 million new people in the next 30 years.
Like every metropolitan region, Chicago is experiencing immigration from all over the world, but especially an influx of Hispanic families. New immigrants enter a region with longstanding socioeconomic patterns of segregation, especially in the southern counties. Thomas explained there are pockets of diversity in some suburban communities, but exclusionary zoning keeps the barriers high. While NIPC has successfully brought together the mayors in the metropolitan area to discuss critical issues, “we suffer from a lack of major universities, most of which are either downtown or 100 miles out,” Thomas noted. “Our political leaders are organized, and so is our business community. However, we run on parallel tracks and talk in stereo.” To address this disconnect, NIPC has created a broad-scale civic leadership process to undertake community-based planning. “We have created a tool called ‘paint the town,’ which allows interactive meetings in local city and town halls,” he continued. “We have a future to plan and it needs to be grounded where the people live, work and raise their families.”
Los Angeles has more than twice as many people as Chicago and more than 4.5 times the population of the Atlanta region, and yet “the urban portion of our region is the densest in the country,” according to Mark Pisano of the Southern California Association of Governments (SCAG). “We have 187 municipalities in 6 counties. With 76 local officials in our structure, our congressional delegation comes to us for solutions to the tough issues we face. We do have a region that is large enough to cover the true regional economy, but the economic and social forces are relentless. Our economic bases are shifting faster than we can plan infrastructure to keep up with the changes.”
Like Chicago and Atlanta, Los Angeles is a polycentric region; it spreads across all of Southern California except San Diego County. “We were one of the first regions in the country to become a majority of minorities. Immigration drives development in our region,” said Pisano. Some of the trends are good. “Forty percent of our region is doing extremely well, but that means that 60 percent is not. We have been called the ‘new Appalachia’ by some, and we are banding together with other states along the border with Mexico to create the Southwest Authority. This, like other similar efforts around the country including the Appalachian Regional Commission, would create a federally supported multistate compact to address critical infrastructure needs required to support the economy of this large area.”
SCAG forecasts another 6 million people will arrive in the region by 2030, more than twice the population of the City of Chicago. As the new immigrants arrive, cities and towns already cramped by the constraints of Proposition 13 are beginning to close the door on new housing production. “Housing is the most undesirable land use in Southern California,” said Pisano. “We are seeing the fiscalization of land use. Our leaders tell me that they don’t want any more housing. They say this is sound fiscal policy. However, this approach just puts more pressure on places that already have housing. The net effect is that Los Angeles is three times more overcrowded than the rest of the region and eight times more crowded than New York City.”
To address these big-picture problems, SCAG is focusing on macro-level regional development patterns. “We can’t build our way out of the traffic congestion, but we have two scenarios under discussion,” Pisano continued. “The first focuses on infill development; the second proposes creation of the fifth ring of development in the high desert. Effective land use will generate three times more benefit than highway expansion.” Using a creative strategy of building truck lanes, paid for by the truckers, “we can create some relief and target key transportation logistics, i.e., moving freight out of the port of Los Angeles into the rest of the country. This strategy also addresses a key workforce issue, since you don’t need a college education to drive a truck. To fund such major infrastructure expansion, we are exploring how to create a tax credit that would allow significant private-sector investment in regional transportation projects.”
Discussion Sessions
Ruben Barrales, deputy assistant to President Bush and director of intergovernmental affairs for the White House, presented an overview of the executive branch’s current national priorities. During the discussion Krautler asked if a White House conference would be a possible response to the critical issues facing the largest metropolitan regions in the country. Barrales said the concept was worth discussing but would require considerable advance preparation to be effective. Pisano offered the resources of the group, working through NARC, to help with conference planning. Robert Yaro of the Regional Plan Association (RPA) suggested an interesting theme. “We’ve had several major eras of planning in this country,” he explained. “When Jefferson made the Louisiana Purchase in 1803, he spurred a major expansion in the nation’s land mass and then had to figure out what to do with it. One hundred years later Teddy Roosevelt appointed Gifford Pinchot to create the National Park Service. We’re due for another national planning initiative, but we now have many challenges that require a sophisticated response. We can’t build an economy based on people driving several hours to and from work each day. We need to focus on how we can create a place that is both pleasant and affordable.”
Armando Carbonell of the Lincoln Institute asked the group to expand on what national policies are needed to support the large metropolitan regions in the country. Comments included:
Dowell Myers, director of the Planning School in the University of Southern California School of Planning, Policy and Development, moderated a session focused on transforming regional actions into local implementation. As part of the program, representatives of three regions commented on their strategies.
“Seattle grew a lot over the last 20 years and we grew in different ways,” said Mary McCumber of the Puget Sound Regional Council (PSRC). “Our new growth was outside of our historic cities. We knew we needed to do something and we got lucky. We got ISTEA [Intermodal Surface Transportation Efficiency Act], a state growth management law and a new regional council at the same time.” Using these tools, PSRC created Destination 2030, which was honored as the best regional plan in the country by the American Planning Association (APA). “But we have planned enough. We are a land of process. Now we need to have the courage to act.”
Martin Tuttle of the Sacramento Area Council of Governments (SACOG) reported, “We used our federal transportation dollars to create land use incentives for community design and backed it up with $500 million. We asked people, ‘Is Atlanta what we want?’” Using the best data available and a sophisticated feedback planning process, SACOG brought the planning to the people and took the people’s plan back to the council.
Bob Yaro of RPA reminded the group that it takes “patience, persistence and perseverance.” He presented New York City as an urban success story, where 8 million people ride the transit system per day. “The Regional Plan Association, created in 1929, oversees a three-state region, and those states don’t like each other much. They have different DNA,” Yaro noted. Despite that history, RPA created the first strategy for a multi-centered region. Unlike the other regional councils, RPA is a private-sector organization. “The real power is in the civic community, if you can get people organized and move them in the right direction,” Yaro added.
Tom Bell, president and CEO of Cousins Properties in Atlanta, introduced a private-sector perspective on engaging in regional policy development: “I was surprised to read in Time magazine that the Atlanta region is the fastest growing settlement in human history. We are gobbling up 100 acres a day. There is no common ground. Democracy and land planning go together like oil and water. But you [planners] are the people who can make a change. Developers will do a lot of work if we can see a payoff. Visions are in short supply and the status quo is not an option.”
Addressing income distribution in the regions, Paul Ong, director of the Lewis Study Center at UCLA, reported that poverty rates among the elderly have declined at the same time that rates among children have increased. More distressing, poverty is higher and more concentrated in urban areas. “We are seeing a working underclass—not people on welfare but people who have jobs.” Rick Porth from Hartford and Howard Maier from Cleveland responded with case studies from their regions on income and social equity. In Hartford, Porth said, “the disparity is getting worse. More important, 20 percent of our future workforce is being educated in our worst schools.” Maier noted, “our economy is in transformation. The Cleveland area was a manufacturing center for steel and car production, but now we have more healthcare workers than steel or auto workers. As a region of 175 communities, we have 175 land use policies based on 175 zoning codes and maps. Each community’s plans may be rational, but together they project a future of sprawl without the ability for coordinated public services or facilities.”
In other sessions several regions that had developed assessment and benchmarking studies presented their current work, and the conference concluded with presentations by each of the councils on a best practice study, strategy or methodology that they have implemented.
The conference theme—confronting housing, transportation and regional growth—underscores the complexity of the metropolitan environment and the necessity for an integrated response to regional dynamics. Traditional regional councils are unique in their ability to link multiple regional systems to focus on specific regional questions. Housing affordability, a seemingly intractable problem overwhelming metropolitan regions, can only be understood against the backdrop of the local government fiscal policy. Transportation systems, often understood as infrastructure designed to service an existing regional settlement pattern, must be seen as a key determinant of economic development policy as well as a primary driver of land use change in regions. The metropolitan regions of this country are the economic engines of our states and the country as a whole. A new, enriched dialogue with the White House could stimulate a series of policy initiatives. As that conversation proceeds, regional councils are the key organizations to engage business and civic leaders with local elected officials around the regional table.
David Soule is senior research associate at the Center for Urban and Regional Policy at Northeastern University in Boston. He teaches political science and conducts research on urban economic development, tax policy and transportation systems. He is the former executive director of the Metropolitan Area Planning Council (MAPC), the regional planning agency representing 101 cities and towns in the Boston area.
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La infraestructura (que comprende energía, telecomunicaciones, transporte, abastecimiento de agua potable y alcantarillado) cumple un papel muy importante en el desarrollo del suelo urbano y ejerce una influencia en la productividad, tanto de las ciudades como del campo. Los datos acerca de la cantidad de obras de infraestructura a nivel nacional (aunque no a nivel metropolitano) se encuentran disponibles en relación con muchos países en vías de desarrollo y de altos ingresos. Dichos datos respaldan varios de los resultados que se resumen en el presente artículo.
La cantidad de obras de infraestructura per cápita en los diferentes países se encuentra estrechamente relacionada con los niveles de ingresos per cápita: en aquellos países en donde los ingresos se duplican, sucede casi lo mismo con las obras de infraestructura. Sin embargo, las obras de infraestructura de un país no se encuentran esencialmente relacionadas con su nivel de urbanización una vez que se han tomado en cuenta los ingresos de dicho país. Y esto resulta sorprendente, ya que las ciudades poseen grandes cantidades de obras de infraestructura. No obstante, las ciudades también presentan una gran densidad de población que utiliza la infraestructura de manera intensiva, por lo que los niveles de obras de infraestructura urbana per cápita son similares a los niveles nacionales.
La composición de las obras de infraestructura también varía sistemáticamente según los ingresos per cápita. Las carreteras representan la mayor proporción de obras de infraestructura en los países con menor cantidad de ingresos, seguidas de los sistemas de agua potable en segundo lugar y los sistemas de energía eléctrica en tercer lugar. A medida que los ingresos de un país se incrementan, la cantidad de obras de infraestructura relacionadas con los sistemas de energía eléctrica aumentan con más rapidez que los niveles de ingresos. La infraestructura correspondiente a los sistemas de agua potable y alcantarillado aumenta a una intensidad menor y, en el caso de las carreteras, el cambio se da en proporción a los ingresos. Como resultado, en los países con altos ingresos, los sistemas de energía eléctrica conforman el mayor componente de las obras de infraestructura, seguidos de las carreteras, mientras que los sistemas de agua potable, alcantarillado y telefonía representan sólo una pequeña proporción de la infraestructura.
Teniendo en cuenta las tasas de crecimiento económico recientes, y utilizando las relaciones existentes entre la infraestructura y los ingresos per cápita, los países en vías de desarrollo probablemente deben invertir alrededor del 5 por ciento de su PIB en infraestructura (3 por ciento en expansión y 2 por ciento en mantenimiento), que en la actualidad se aproxima a los US$750 mil millones anuales, para poder mantener la relación existente entre la infraestructura y el PIB. En los países con altos ingresos, el gasto total sería menor, es decir, un 1,7 por ciento del PIB (dividido equitativamente entre obras de expansión y de mantenimiento), que en la actualidad se aproxima a US$700 mil millones anuales. Aquellos países que crecen con más rapidez que el promedio deben invertir una proporción mayor de su PIB, con el fin de que las obras de infraestructura vayan a la par del crecimiento económico.
En algunos países, una alternativa a las nuevas inversiones consiste en mejorar la eficiencia de la producción de servicios a partir de la infraestructura existente. Por ejemplo, la pérdida promedio de energía eléctrica en los diferentes países llega a alcanzar hasta el 25 por ciento; por otro lado, el agua potable que no se factura y las filtraciones de agua pueden llegar a exceder el 30 por ciento. La reducción de estas pérdidas de gran magnitud puede evitar la necesidad de capacidades adicionales. No deja de ser sorprendente el hecho de que el rendimiento de los diferentes sectores dentro de un mismo país varíe en tan gran medida, pues el rendimiento eficiente que puede tener un país en un determinado sector de infraestructura no se condice con su rendimiento en otros sectores.
¿De dónde provendrán estos fondos de inversión, en particular para los países en vías de desarrollo? La asistencia internacional y el financiamiento brindado por los bancos de desarrollo para obras de infraestructura en los países en vías de desarrollo actualmente llegan a un total de aproximadamente US$40 mil millones anuales. Dicha cifra se ha triplicado (o más) desde el año 1990, en dólares en curso legal. La inversión privada en infraestructura en los países en vías de desarrollo alcanzó recientemente los US$160 mil millones anuales y ha crecido ocho veces más desde el año 1990, también en dólares de curso legal. La asistencia internacional está dirigida principalmente a los sistemas de energía, transporte, agua potable y alcantarillado, mientras que casi no se han destinado fondos a las telecomunicaciones.
Por el contrario, más de la mitad del financiamiento de origen privado se invierte en telecomunicaciones (en particular, telefonía móvil), seguidas por el sector energético. Las telecomunicaciones y la energía atraen más inversiones privadas en los países en vías de desarrollo debido a que los ingresos que obtienen por los aranceles cubren una gran parte de los costos operativos, mientras que los ingresos por aranceles y tarifas de usuarios cubren una menor parte de los costos de transporte, agua potable y alcantarillado. En la década de 1990, las inversiones privadas en infraestructura se concentraron en América Latina y en Asia Oriental; sin embargo, a partir del año 2000, se distribuyeron de forma más uniforme por diferentes regiones del mundo.
A pesar del crecimiento experimentado en cuanto al financiamiento internacional, existen grandes áreas metropolitanas en crecimiento en países en vías de desarrollo que aún deben recaudar importantes sumas de dinero para poder financiar las inversiones en infraestructura. Entre los métodos de recaudación podemos mencionar los siguientes: el aumento de los aranceles que se cobran a los usuarios, el aumento de los impuestos (en particular, los impuestos inmobiliarios) sobre aquellas propiedades cuyo valor se incrementa debido a las inversiones en infraestructura y el establecimiento de mercados municipales de bonos, tales como el que se está desarrollando en África del Sur.
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En mis tiempos de becario en la Universidad de Cambridge, durante la década de 1990, mi colega y amigo Wynne Godley, que ya no está entre nosotros, pasaba a buscarme los domingos para llevarme a una de las iglesias medievales de las que pueden verse en todo lugar en los pueblos de East Anglia. Wynne decía frecuentemente que “una iglesia es más un proceso que un edificio. Se desarrolla a lo largo de los siglos e involucra a generaciones de familias en su construcción y mantenimiento”. Wynne tenía buen ojo para los detalles arquitectónicos, por lo que podía señalar un contrafuerte o un campanario que ilustraba la práctica de una técnica específica, el uso de materiales fuera de lo común, o ambos. Una sola iglesia ofrecía un registro vivo y estratificado de la forma en que cada generación en una comunidad resolvía el desafío de construir y mantener grandes espacios cerrados y abiertos que posibilitaran la belleza del culto.
En este sentido, las ciudades tienen mucho de iglesias medievales. A medida que transcurre el tiempo, las ciudades ilustran la colaboración de generaciones de residentes, así como también la evolución de las herramientas económicas, técnicas e, incluso, sociales que se utilizaron para construirlas y mantenerlas. Las reliquias de mármol que encontramos en Roma son un testimonio vivo de la estética y los valores antiguos y de la ingenuidad en la construcción, mientras que la ciudad moderna florece a su alrededor. El icónico horizonte de Manhattan, en apariencia inmóvil, en realidad fluye constantemente y hoy en día evoluciona en forma radical a fin de responder a las demandas de sustentabilidad, resiliencia, desarrollos mixtos y otras cuestiones del siglo 21.
Los límites de las ciudades también evolucionan y narran otra historia de importancia crucial. Es posible que el futuro de nuestro planeta dependa de nuestra capacidad de comprender dicha historia y desarrollar las herramientas y la voluntad colectiva necesarias para gestionar el patrón y la progresión del crecimiento urbano. Shlomo (Solly) Angel documenta esta trayectoria en el Atlas of Urban Expansion (Lincoln Institute of Land Policy, 2012), en el que se utilizan imágenes satelitales captadas a lo largo de décadas con el fin de llevar un registro de la evolución espacial de 120 ciudades en todo el mundo, desde Bamako y Guadalajara hasta Shangai y Milán. El último medio siglo de crecimiento urbano ha proporcionado un cuento con moraleja sobre la seducción de la expansión urbana descontrolada, un camino sin mucha resistencia que genera beneficios económicos de forma rápida pero cuyo desarrollo es poco sustentable. Nuestra capacidad para controlar la huella ecológica que dejamos y minimizar nuestro impacto a nivel mundial estará estrechamente relacionada con nuestra capacidad para planificar y construir asentamientos humanos más densos y eficientes. En vista de la predicción de las Naciones Unidas en cuanto a una población urbana mundial que casi se duplicará para llegar a las 6 mil millones de personas en el año 2050, la suerte del planeta dependerá de si los humanos, como especie, podremos adoptar un paradigma de desarrollo más apropiado en este medio siglo por venir.
A medida que nos esforzamos en reinventar nuestros asentamientos urbanos, nos enfrentaremos a un viejo enemigo: el suelo que ya ha recibido mejoras y desarrollo pero que debe adaptarse a usos nuevos. Aunque no desconocemos este proceso tan polémico, podemos decir que todavía no hemos logrado descifrar el código para gestionarlo. En este número de Land Lines analizamos algunas de las necesidades impulsoras que requerirán enfoques creativos para el redesarrollo en diferentes ciudades y contextos: cómo cubrir la demanda insatisfecha de vivienda que lleva a millones de trabajadores en Beijing a habitar en viviendas subterráneas; cómo financiar la infraestructura para gestionar la presión de la población en Río de Janeiro y otras ciudades de Brasil; o cómo darle nuevos usos al suelo ante la agonía derivada de un completo ajuste industrial, demográfico y fiscal en Detroit. Estos lugares son diferentes entre sí, pero todos enfrentarán desafíos similares a medida que evolucionen en las décadas futuras.
En el Instituto Lincoln somos profundamente conscientes de la necesidad de nuevas ideas y nuevas prácticas que faciliten el redesarrollo sustentable del suelo que ya se ha desarrollado o ya se encuentra ocupado. Durante el próximo año, comenzaremos a generar un emprendimiento intelectual para tratar los múltiples desafíos de la regeneración urbana, extrayendo lecciones de las medidas tomadas tiempo atrás en los Estados Unidos y en otros países desarrollados después de la Segunda Guerra Mundial, buscando maneras nuevas y creativas de financiar la infraestructura para mejorar el suelo en asentamientos informales que ahogan a las ciudades en los países en vías de desarrollo, o reavivando la salud fiscal de ciudades tradicionales del acervo estadounidense, como Detroit, descubriendo las causas que provocaron la insolvencia y probando soluciones para remediarla.
Las iglesias medievales que visité durante la década de 1990 ofrecían lecciones en piedra: técnicas y materiales innovadores que permitían a los arquitectos medievales desafiar a la gravedad. Y tal vez lo que resulta más importante es el hecho de que eran monumentos al esfuerzo comunitario y al compromiso a largo plazo de las congregaciones que construyeron y sostuvieron estas iglesias durante siglos. Al fin y al cabo, la supervivencia humana podría depender de nuestra habilidad para superar, de forma similar, las fuerzas centrípetas que socavan la acción colectiva, y construir y mantener las estructuras sociales y los marcos normativos con el fin de desarrollar y redesarrollar nuestras ciudades para el bien mutuo y para la posteridad.
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Recent court decisions have made economic development and tax policy front-page news. The recent U.S. Supreme Court decision in Kelo v. City of New London raised a public outcry when it allowed local governments dramatic latitude in acquiring private property for economic development purposes. This case had a fiscal aspect as well, for it illustrated how financial pressures can lead local governments to seek alternatives to direct investment for economic revitalization and redevelopment.
Economic development was also the focus of a major lower court decision on state tax policy. In Cuno v. DaimlerChrysler, the 6th Circuit Court of Appeals found that Ohio’s investment tax credit, intended to attract businesses from other states, violated the Commerce Clause of the U.S. Constitution (Hellerstein 2005). These and other, similar cases raise many questions about the connections between economic development and tax policy.
Is there a relationship between economic development and infrastructure spending?
Infrastructure, that vast network of capital-intensive services including roads, water provision, sewer services, and electrical supply, is critical to current and future economic activity. However, serious economic examination of the link between infrastructure spending and economic productivity only began in the late 1980s. Aschauer (1989, 194–197) argued that declining infrastructure spending resulted in less economic growth. More recently, Bougheas et al. (2000, 520) reported findings that “highlight the importance of infrastructure accumulation” for productivity gains.
Other researchers have pointed out that the most significant recent changes in infrastructure spending have occurred at the state and local levels, rather than the federal level. Gramlich (1994, 1178) argued that federal infrastructure spending has been fairly consistent over time, but state and local spending has decreased. Holtz-Eakin (1993) cautioned that while public expenditures on infrastructure may be important, they may not directly affect economic productivity. He argued that differing state and local needs may account for many infrastructure spending disparities, and that maintenance of existing infrastructure assets may be more important than new spending for capital acquisition. Boarnet (1997) considered efficient pricing for infrastructure use as important as its actual provision.
Nevertheless, the American Society for Civil Engineers (ASCE) is sufficiently concerned about the condition of infrastructure in the U.S. to assign it a grade of “D.” ASCE (2005) argues that the country needs to spend about $1.6 trillion over the next five years to improve the situation.
What is the relationship between infrastructure spending and local tax systems?
The mechanisms for funding infrastructure and its role in state and local spending are complex. Research in this area deals with such topics as fiscal illusion (i.e., when the complexity of the revenue system obscures the true cost of public goods and services) and specific capital financing strategies used to fund infrastructure. However, there has been little research on the impact of local tax structures on infrastructure spending.
Economists have long argued that the value of publicly provided goods and services, such as infrastructure and its maintenance, are reflected in the value of the property served by those goods. Accordingly, a tax that captures the value of these public goods and services may be an important revenue source for funding them. However, in the last 30 years, local governments have moved away from such a tax, the property tax, to other sources of revenue. In many communities, this shift has produced an increased reliance on state aid, local sales tax revenues, and user fees.
In analyzing infrastructure spending in Utah, it is clear that the local revenue structure affects per capita operating and maintenance spending and new capital acquisition expenditures. Preliminary analysis indicates that communities are more likely to increase per capita infrastructure spending when it is financed by property taxes, all other funding sources held constant. It also appears that as per capita sales tax revenue increases, per capita spending for infrastructure services declines.
How constrained are local revenue systems?
One reason that local government revenue structures affect spending on infrastructure is that the states impose various constraints on local revenue sources. Although the past ten years have seen no dramatic changes in the roles of the property tax, intergovernmental aid, or the sales tax in overall local government revenues, the ratio of total revenues to personal income has fallen about 7.5 percent. This real decline highlights the increasing pressure on local governments to identify new revenue sources.
Yet, local governments face serious constraints when they seek to change their revenue systems. States impose intergovernmental restrictions, such as limits on sales tax rates that localities can impose. Less tangible but equally important is political opposition to tax increases. The third factor is the set of tax and expenditure limitations that many states have enacted, ranging from Proposition 13 in California in 1978 to the more recent taxpayer bill of rights enacted in Colorado, which drastically limited increases in government spending.
These constraints have forced local governments to become more innovative in their revenue-raising methods. An entire cottage industry of financial advisors, bond attorneys, and other public and private sector innovators has emerged to help local governments find ways of loosening or circumventing these limitations. Some strategies may have increased economic efficiency, although they give rise to equity concerns (for example, the movement toward the increased use of fees and charges); others are nearly invisible to the taxpayer. In nearly all cases, local governments have been seeking to use land as a revenue-generating device—a trend that shows no sign of abating.
What are alternative ways to finance capital infrastructure?
Two types of debt traditionally have financed infrastructure projects: general obligation (GO) bonds, backed by the full faith and credit of the issuing locality; and revenue bonds, backed by income from the capital project. Both types of debt have significant restrictions on their use, such as voter approval requirements and caps on maximum indebtedness. These debt limitations, the difficulty in raising property taxes, and the fear of political opposition have increased the use of alternative capital finance methods based on land use.
One longstanding method, tax increment financing (TIF), utilizes the increases in property value to help finance redevelopment projects. Originally designed as a financial instrument to eliminate blight and provide affordable housing, this instrument has become increasingly popular in many states for a variety of projects. Forty-seven states and the District of Columbia now allow this technique.
Capturing the property tax increment attributable to government-sponsored redevelopment in order to service this debt makes economic sense if the new development would not have occurred without the formation of the tax district. Moreover, this debt does not have to be approved by voters, but rather by a group designated by the city government. Not even these two factors explain the extraordinary recent growth in the number and size of TIF districts, however, raising suspicion that this tool may be used more often to attract and subsidize economic growth than to eliminate blight. For example, in 2003–2004, California had 33 TIF redevelopment projects, each of which covered more than 6,000 acres, a surprisingly large area to be declared “blighted” in any one jurisdiction (see Figure 1).
Another popular tool in several states is the community facilities district (CFD), which usually funds new development. Landowners within a region form a CFD to issue debt to finance the infrastructure needed to develop raw land. District members’ votes are typically a function of the amount of property each landowner holds. The local government must approve CFDs, although they are not a formal part of the government and their debt issuance is not subject to approval by the general public.
A lien for CFD assessments is placed on each lot in the district, and the CFD tax liability appears on the property tax bill of each district member as a separate line item. Variations of this technique may utilize sales taxes, impact fees, and user charges. Many rapidly growing local governments encourage the formation of these districts to help finance their community’s growth. Nevertheless, CFDs can be very complex, and may fail if anticipated growth does not occur (see Figure 2).
TIFs, CFDs, and other such techniques present an ethical dilemma to local government. Sometimes they are not fully understood by the political decision makers who authorize their use, let alone by members of the general public who will bear the burden of paying this debt in the future. Yet they remain a popular tool to finance crucial infrastructure that is basic to improving the economic well-being of the community.
Could a land tax help finance infrastructure for economic development?
The land component of property value is another potential source of revenue to encourage economic development. Since the supply of land is fixed in the short run, an increase in a land tax will not affect the tax base. However, it will encourage more intensive use of the land and may slow urban sprawl. Unfortunately, the lack of empirical data makes it difficult to determine if this theory is accurate. One example in the U.S. is the City of Pittsburgh, which in 1979–1980 restructured the tax on land to be five times that on improvements. Building activity showed a dramatic increase, although other factors may have contributed to the change as well (Oates and Schwab 1997). Pittsburgh later returned to a single-rate property tax system.
Increased use of a land tax poses significant problems. In particular, accurately assessing land can be challenging, although statistical and econometric techniques may help address this in the future. A second concern is that more intensive use of land value taxation will lead to denser development, exacerbating many of the problems associated with congestion. These effects must be weighed against the positive benefits of reducing long-distance commuting. A third problem concerns equity. Owners whose property has a high land/improvement ratio will face an increased tax liability. This shift might be mitigated by adjustments in the tax rate, special exemptions or targeted tax credits.
A land tax has the important advantages of transparency and accountability. In particular, if land value increases because of government activities, there is strong justification for recovering at least some of those costs through a tax on the land component. We would even propose a name for this additional tax—a positive externality tax (PET). We recognize that, like any proposed increase in the property tax, such a shift would be politically controversial.
Conclusions
Our current research analyzes relationships among economic development, infrastructure, and the tax system. The fiscal problems of local jurisdictions are made more complex by the use of intricate methods of infrastructure financing, such as TIFs and CFDs, to fund economic development. The use of financing mechanisms based on a land tax may be one part of a potential response to this challenge.
Jeffrey Chapman is professor and director of the School of Public Affairs at Arizona State University in Tempe. He specializes in state and local finance and administration of financial resources, and has recently published in the area of local land use responses to fiscal stress.
Rex L. Facer II is assistant professor of public management at the Romney Institute of Public Management of the Marriott School of Management at Brigham Young University in Provo, Utah. He specializes in city management, public finance, public management strategy, and public policy analysis.
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Infrastructure (comprising energy, telecommunications, transportation, water supply, and sanitation) plays an important role in urban land development, and it influences city and country productivity. Data on the amount of infrastructure stocks at the national (but, alas, not the metropolitan) level are available for many developing and high-income countries and support several results summarized here.
The amount of infrastructure stocks per capita across countries is strongly related to per capita income levels—when country incomes double, infrastructure stocks nearly double as well. However, country infrastructure stocks have essentially no association with a country’s level of urbanization once country income is taken into account. This seems surprising because cities have large amounts of infrastructure. But they also have dense populations that use the infrastructure intensively, so per capita urban infrastructure stocks are similar to national levels.
The composition of infrastructure stocks also varies systematically with per capita income. Roads have the largest share of infrastructure stocks in the lowest income countries, with water systems second and electric power systems a close third. As country incomes increase, the infrastructure related to electric power systems increases more rapidly than income levels. Infrastructure for water and sewer systems increases less rapidly, and for roads the change is in proportion to income. As a result, in high-income countries electric power systems are the largest component of infrastructure, followed by roads, whereas water, sanitation, and telephone systems comprise only a modest share of their infrastructure.
Based on recent rates of economic growth, and using the existing relations between infrastructure and per capita income, developing countries are likely to need to spend about 5 percent of their GDP on infrastructure (3 percent for expansion and 2 percent for maintenance)—currently about $750 billion annually—to maintain existing ratios between infrastructure and GDP. For high-income countries, total spending would be lower, at 1.7 percent of GDP (about evenly divided between investment and maintenance)—currently about $700 billion annually. Countries growing faster than average need to invest a higher share of their GDP so that infrastructure stocks can keep up with economic growth.
In some countries, improving the efficiency of service production from existing infrastructure is an alternative to new investment. For example, average electricity losses across countries range as high as 25 percent, and leakage and unbilled water can exceed 30 percent. Reducing such high losses can forestall the need for additional capacity. Somewhat surprisingly, performance within countries across sectors varies greatly—efficient performance by a country in one infrastructure sector is uncorrelated with performance in other sectors.
What sources will provide these investment funds, particularly for developing countries? Foreign assistance and development bank financing of infrastructure in developing countries currently total about $40 billion annually, and that figure has more than tripled since 1990 in current dollars. Private investment in infrastructure in developing countries has recently reached $160 billion annually and has grown eight-fold since 1990, also in current dollars. Foreign assistance is directed mainly at energy, transport, and water and sanitation systems, with virtually no funding for telecommunications. In contrast, more than half of private funding goes to telecommunications (particularly mobile telephony), followed by energy. Telecommunications and energy draw more private investment in developing countries because their tariff revenues cover a large share of operating costs, whereas tariff revenues and user fees cover a much smaller share of costs for transport and water and sanitation. Private investment in infrastructure was concentrated in Latin America and East Asia in the 1990s but has spread more evenly across global regions in the 2000s.
Despite the growth in international funding, large and growing metropolitan areas in developing countries still need to raise significant sums to finance infrastructure investments. This will involve raising tariffs charged to users, increasing taxes (particularly property taxes) on properties whose value is enhanced by infrastructure investments, and establishing municipal bond markets such as the one being developed in South Africa.
