Navigating Africa’s Climate and Development Transitions

In 2025, the African Climate Foundation (ACF) launched a series of exploratory scenario planning (XSP) efforts to understand the implications of major geopolitical and economic shifts for Africa’s climate and development trajectory and for philanthropy operating on the continent. Through this process, ACF identified a set of “no-regrets” pathways: strategic actions that would advance Africa’s priorities in a range of plausible futures. This effort ultimately helped inform and validate ACF’s 2026–2030 strategic refresh, documented in the June 2026 report Africa’s Transitions and Future Opportunities 2025–2030.

Convening a diverse group of climate and development experts, the experience demonstrated the value of XSP as a highly engaging tool enabling participants to think strategically about uncertainty when the future cannot be predicted. A central lesson for ACF and participants, reflected in this case study, was that XSP’s greatest value lies in the process of collective reflection, learning, and strategy development through an interactive format that goes beyond traditional planning approaches.