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Una versión más actualizada de este artículo está disponible como parte del capítulo 3 del libro Perspectivas urbanas: Temas críticos en políticas de suelo de América Latina.
Con el objetivo de analizar la equidad y eficacia del sistema fiscal de tributación inmobiliaria, el Instituto Lincoln desarrolló, en conjunto con el Ayuntamiento de Porto Alegre (Brasil), el Seminario Internacional sobre Tributación Inmobiliaria en abril de 2001, el cual formó parte de su programa educativo en América Latina. Asistieron al seminario más de 200 delegados de 12 países, 14 estados brasileños y 45 autoridades municipales. Expertos reconocidos en el ámbito internacional, funcionarios gubernamentales y personalidades del sector académico, de finanzas públicas y de materias impositivas representaron instituciones tales como el Banco Interamericano de Desarrollo (BID), el Instituto Internacional de Tributación Inmobiliaria (IPTI), la Asociación Internacional de Funcionarios de Tasación (IAAO), la Asociación Brasileña de Secretarías de Finanzas de Capitales (ABRASF) y la Escuela de Administración Hacendaria (ESAF). En este artículo se analizan los temas y experiencias tratados en el seminario.
Así como en los Estados Unidos, en América Latina hay un debate continuo sobre la mayor eficacia, la simplificación en los procesos de administración y la menor influencia de factores políticos que derivarían de la sustitución del tributo inmobiliario por otras fuentes de ingreso, tales como recargos y tarifas. No obstante, el tributo inmobiliario continúa siendo la opción predominante de financiamiento de los servicios públicos de los gobiernos municipales de América Latina.
Una característica importante del tributo inmobiliario es la gran diversidad que hay en su administración en cada país. Por ejemplo, en Brasil, Colombia y Ecuador es un impuesto exclusivamente municipal, mientras que en Argentina es administrado por el gobierno provincial. En México, el papel de las autoridades municipales se ha reducido principalmente a la recaudación de los impuestos. En Chile, el tributo inmobiliario es una importante fuente de ingreso para los gobiernos municipales, aunque el gobierno central es el responsable por la administración de los sistemas catastrales, de tasación y recaudación. El Salvador es el único país centroamericano que no ha impuesto nunca una tributación sobre la propiedad, aunque cada vez más se discute sobre la necesidad de establecer nuevos impuestos, dado que los ingresos tributarios constituyen apenas un 11 por ciento del producto bruto interno (PIB).
Reflexiones sobre el sistema fiscal de tributación inmobiliaria
En general, el tributo inmobiliario está reconocido como un impuesto “bueno” que tiene una función esencial en el proceso de recuperación de ingresos, financiamiento de servicios públicos y promoción del desarrollo social. Su naturaleza única establece vínculos importantes entre riqueza e ingresos, desarrollo social y uso y ocupación del suelo. Sin embargo, es fundamental administrarlo con justicia para evitar ineficacias y desigualdades en la distribución de la carga impositiva. En varias sesiones del seminario se mencionó la necesidad de contar con un catastro que tenga cobertura completa y adecuada, además de los atributos básicos para la tasación de diferentes clases de propiedades. Un grupo de participantes recomendó integrar la comunidad al proceso de actualización continua de los datos catastrales, mientras que otros enfatizaron la necesidad de realizar un cuidadoso análisis de costo-beneficio antes de implementar sistemas de información geográfica.
En países donde el catastro no es administrado por el gobierno central, no existe un sistema o modelo estándar. Según el nivel de desarrollo de la municipalidad o de los recursos financieros disponibles, la tecnología catastral puede exhibir grandes variaciones, desde una simple lista de propiedades hasta un catastro multifinalitario basado en un sistema de información geográfica. También se observan diferencias en los sistemas de tasación; por ejemplo, en Colombia y Bolivia se utiliza la autotasación, mientras que en Brasil, Chile, Ecuador y México es común el método de tasación por costos. Algunas autoridades municipales de Brasil están trabajando activamente para instituir el método de comparación de ventas para la propiedad residencial. Al aplicar el método de tasación por costos, el valor del suelo se determina mediante el método de comparación de precios de venta. El valor del suelo, si se basa en la información del mercado, también se calcula de maneras diferentes, lo cual genera preocupación sobre cómo reducir las desigualdades en la tasación.
Por encima de todo, la valuación es una tarea técnica que requiere tasación uniforme, realizada a intervalos cortos, y que no debe utilizarse para fines políticos. Los sistemas que establecen límites de los aumentos impositivos entre periodos consecutivos para cada propiedad individual, hasta un ajuste general basado en la tasa de inflación anual, son vistos como una fuente principal de inequidad de tasación. Para poder ganar la aceptación del sistema tributario y la confianza de los contribuyentes, es imprescindible que haya transparencia en los resultados de las valuaciones además de características básicas tales como responsabilidad fiscal, justicia, democratización de la información y simplificación del lenguaje técnico a fin de facilitar el entendimiento de los miembros y líderes de la comunidad. Además, estos últimos deben participar en la toma de decisiones referentes a la recaudación de impuestos y gastos públicos.
Una tendencia reciente es el uso creciente de Internet por parte de los contribuyentes para recibir y pagar sus facturas impositivas, revisar los datos estadísticos de sus propiedades y actualizar la información catastral. En este particular se considera a Chile como punto de referencia en el uso de estas tecnologías en América Latina.
Experiencias con la reforma fiscal
Varios ponentes del seminario hablaron de sus experiencias con la reforma fiscal a la propiedad inmobiliaria, las cuales suelen incluir inversiones en sistemas catastrales. En Colombia, por ejemplo, la mejora en la recaudación del tributo inmobiliario se tradujo en un aumento en el porcentaje del PIB, de un 0,22 por ciento en 1970 al 0,91 por ciento en 1994. Esta mejora se atribuyó en parte a leyes que exigieron la implementación y actualización del catastro en todo el país. La fuerte oposición hacia la actualización de los valores de tasación, así como las dificultades administrativas para realizar las valuaciones, llevaron a establecer un procedimiento de autotasación. Ahora los contribuyentes son responsables por declarar el valor de tasación de sus propiedades, pero dicho valor no puede ser inferior al valor catastral registrado. Para reducir la subtasación, el valor de tasación se usa también como base para la expropiación.
Las iniciativas de reforma fiscal que hubo en Argentina durante la década de 1990 estuvieron fuertemente motivadas por las crisis financieras del sector público. El proyecto de reforma del tributo inmobiliario fue dividido en dos áreas principales: administración catastral y fiscal. A pesar de que en estas reformas se ha invertido el equivalente a más de US$120 millones, el proyecto ha sido completado en apenas un 50 por ciento de las jurisdicciones. En otro ejemplo, Mexicali, la ciudad capital de Baja California, fue la primera en adoptar un sistema basado en el valor del suelo como base impositiva predial en la década de 1990. Si bien se trató de una exitosa experiencia de reforma fiscal a la propiedad inmobiliaria, actualmente México se enfrenta a una serie de retos, entre ellos lograr un equilibrio fiscal entre el gasto público y los ingresos recaudados, además de recuperar la importancia del tributo inmobiliario como fuente de ingresos.
La tributación inmobiliaria en Brasil
Varias barreras políticas, jurídicas y prácticas han contribuido a mantener la inequidad e ineficacia del tributo inmobiliario en Brasil. Las ramas principales del gobierno (el poder ejecutivo, el legislativo y el judicial) suelen diferir en su interpretación de las regulaciones impositivas, lo cual crea una perenne falta de confianza en el sistema tributario. Entre los problemas principales que afectan el sistema fiscal de tributación inmobiliaria cabe mencionar: 1) catastros obsoletos e incompletos que derivan en pérdidas irrecuperables de los ingresos; 2) prácticas de tasación deficientes que conducen a una falta de uniformidad generalizada; 3) fuerte influencia de los valores de tasación históricos, no sólo porque los avalúos son poco frecuentes sino también porque la aprobación de cualquier nueva lista de valuación por la Cámara de Concejales suele ser difícil; y 4) deficiencias en el proceso de recaudación de impuestos.
Se reexaminó la validez y factibilidad de adoptar tasas progresivas (móviles) para el tributo inmobiliario, las cuales habían sido utilizadas ampliamente en Brasil durante la década de 1990. La idea básica había sido establecer tasas progresivas según las clases de valores de tasación e introducir un elemento de “capacidad de pago” en el sistema, en el que la carga impositiva de las propiedades más costosas fuera mayor que las de propiedades de menos valor. Si bien en 1996 la Corte Suprema declaró como inconstitucional el uso de tasas progresivas para el tributo inmobiliario, una reciente enmienda constitucional autorizó la progresividad de las tasas de tributo inmobiliario según el valor de las propiedades, así como también diferentes tasas según la ubicación de la propiedad.
Durante el transcurso del seminario, los argumentos en contra de la aplicación de tasas progresivas para el tributo inmobiliario apuntaron a la necesidad de mantener un impuesto sencillo y eficaz, mientras que aquéllos a favor de la progresividad hicieron énfasis en la concentración de la disparidad de los ingresos en Brasil y en el hecho de que los gastos de vivienda de la población pobre son proporcionalmente mayores que los de la población adinerada. La mayoría de los participantes del seminario estuvieron de acuerdo en que las tasas progresivas podrían conducir a una distribución más justa de la carga impositiva. No obstante, la progresividad debe ser gradual, es decir, se debe aplicar una tasa mayor únicamente a la parte del valor de la propiedad que excede el límite establecido en cada clase de valor de tasación, a fin de evitar grandes diferencias en la carga impositiva para aquellas propiedades cuyos valores estén ligeramente por encima o por debajo de los límites en cada categoría.
En el ámbito nacional, en Brasil es ampliamente conocida la ineficacia del tributo inmobiliario como fuente del ingreso público. Los ingresos provenientes del tributo inmobiliario representan menos del 0,4 por ciento del PIB —de hecho, la cantidad realmente recaudada es puramente simbólica en muchas partes del país. En una encuesta reciente de las municipalidades se investigaron varios aspectos del desempeño gubernamental municipal, entre ellos la evasión de impuestos. Los resultados demostraron que la evasión de impuestos es menor del 20 por ciento en apenas un 13 por ciento de las municipalidades. En una de cada cinco municipalidades, el ingreso fiscal representa menos del 20 por ciento de las propiedades incluidas en el catastro.
Nota: La divisa brasileña es el real (R$). En 1996, R$1 equivalía aproximadamente a US$1.
En la tabla 1 se muestra la importancia relativa del ingreso del tributo inmobiliario en Brasil, según el tamaño de la municipalidad. Las municipalidades pequeñas obtienen su financiamiento mayormente por transferencias de otros niveles gubernamentales, mientras que las grandes tienen una mayor dependencia del tributo inmobiliario como fuente de ingreso. Sin embargo, el funcionamiento del sistema fiscal de tributación inmobiliaria depende directamente de la voluntad política, la cual muestra grandes variaciones entre una ciudad y otra. Por ejemplo, debido a una extensa actualización de su catastro, Santana de Parnaíba, una ciudad de 60.000 habitantes en el estado de São Paulo, recauda aproximadamente R$212,00 por habitante, mientras que la recaudación promedio del tributo inmobiliario para ciudades con población similar (10.000 a 100.000 habitantes) es de R$10,04 por habitante. Las cifras de Santana de Parnaíba son incluso mejores que las de São Paulo, la capital del estado, donde se recaudan menos de R$80,00 por habitante. Igualmente, un modelo participativo en el que actúa la comunidad local y organizaciones no gubernamentales (ONG) facilita la discusión de asuntos críticos de la evaluación y administración del tributo inmobiliario, lo cual ha llevado a medidas de mejoramiento del sistema. En la ciudad Ribeirão Pires, por ejemplo, se logró aumentar el ingreso en un 40 por ciento gracias a la adopción de medidas tales como una exhaustiva revisión de la legislación del tributo inmobiliario que permitió adoptar mejores prácticas de tasación, nuevas tasas de tributo inmobiliario e implementación de procedimientos más eficaces para la recaudación de impuestos. Aún mejor: la reforma fiscal ha contribuido a incrementar la popularidad del gobierno municipal.
Caso de estudio: Porto Alegre
Inspirado por el seminario de abril y por trabajos de investigación y análisis previos, el gobierno municipal de Porto Alegre elaboró una propuesta para una reforma fiscal a la propiedad inmobiliaria con el objetivo de promover la equidad fiscal y la importancia del tributo inmobiliario como fuente de ingreso, así como también crear una administración más eficaz del impuesto. El proyecto se presentó el 28 de septiembre ante el Ayuntamiento —entidad encargada de aprobar o rechazar las medidas—, y deberá haber una decisión final antes de finalizar el año 2001.
Se encomendó el proyecto a un equipo multidisciplinario formado por miembros de la autoridad municipal, entre ellos asesores, expertos en tributo inmobiliario y planificadores urbanos y ambientales, como también un grupo de profesionales de estadística y tecnología de información de la Universidad Federal de Rio Grande do Sul. Las medidas propuestas fueron discutidas ampliamente con representantes de asociaciones públicas, líderes de la comunidad, representantes de los medios de comunicación, y, por supuesto, con los concejales (véase la tabla 2).
Conclusión
La participación de varios cientos de delegados pone en evidencia la importancia del tributo inmobiliario en sus países. Si bien es cierto que todavía hay mucho por hacer para mejorar el desempeño general de los sistemas de tributación inmobiliaria, el debate demostró que ha habido progreso en la manera como el impuesto se administra y se percibe en muchas partes del continente. Varias experiencias independientes demostraron claramente que la voluntad política es la causa principal de las diferencias observadas en los resultados del tributo inmobiliario en América Latina. Gracias a los recientes avances tecnológicos (ahora accesibles a cualquier país), se han podido poner en práctica mejores técnicas de valuación, tasación y manejo de la información. Poco a poco los retos se están desplazando de la esfera técnica a la política. Hoy más que nunca es esencial aprender a implementar las reformas y revisiones fiscales a fin de lograr sistemas de tributación inmobiliaria de mayor eficacia. También se evidencia la tendencia al uso de métodos participativos durante las revisiones, dado que es probable que la aceptación del público facilite el proceso de reforma.
Claudia M. De Cesare es consultora en tributación inmobiliaria de la Secretaría de Finanzas de la municipalidad de Porto Alegre, Brasil; investigadora e imparte clases de valuación y tributación inmobiliaria en la Universidad Federal de Rio Grande do Sul y en el Instituto Lincoln, forma parte del consejo consultivo del Instituto Internacional de Tributación Inmobiliaria (IPTI) y participa activamente en otras organizaciones profesionales.
Sidebar: Red Latinoamerica Sobre Tributación Inmobiliaria
Recientemente el Instituto Lincoln creó un grupo de redes formadas por expertos y legisladores, cuya misión es el estudio de los fundamentos de la política impositiva y del suelo en América Latina. Bajo la dirección de Martim Smolka, Senior Fellow y director del Programa para América Latina y El Caribe, la primera reunión de la red de tributación inmobiliaria se realizó durante el seminario en Porto Alegre en abril de 2001, siendo sus participantes Hector Serravalle (Argentina), Claudia M. De Cesare, Cintia E. Fernandes, Mauro Lunardi y Sol G. Pinto (Brasil), Carlos Acuña (Chile), Maria Camila Uribe y Claudia Puentes (Colombia), Mario R. Maldonado (Ecuador), Roberto Cañas (El Salvador) y Sergio Flores (México).
La red está a la búsqueda de sistemas de tributación inmobiliaria de mayor eficacia en América Latina y de reforzar la función del tributo inmobiliario en los ingresos gubernamentales municipales. Sus miembros buscan promover el desarrollo profesional, identificar temas apropiados para proyectos educativos y trabajos de investigación comparativa y diseminar información y experiencias.
Los proyectos clasificados como principales son los siguientes:
Si bien es cierto que algunos programas nacionales o estatales han mejorado los sistemas catastrales, los procedimientos de valuación y la comunicación en algunos países, los miembros de la red están de acuerdo en que todavía falta un largo camino para poder mejorar la eficacia y la equidad de los sistemas impositivos actuales. Los miembros también aspiran tener mayor comunicación y acceso a la información relacionada con asuntos de tributación inmobiliaria en América Latina. Los programas de capacitación futuros podrían ser una fuente de inspiración para otras municipalidades, que al igual que Porto Alegre, enfrentan dificultades en sus sistemas fiscales de tributación inmobiliaria.
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As a next step in the economic reforms begun in the post-Soviet period, momentum is growing in Poland for the introduction of a property tax based on market value. The recently established Department of Local Government Taxes and Cadastre within the Ministry of Finance is responsible for carrying out the reforms, and has invited the Lincoln Institute and other international organizations to advise them on developing an ad valorem property tax system.
Last October several Polish officials visited the Institute to learn about property taxation in the United States, and subsequently the Polish government requested support from the U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID) to bring international advisors to Poland for a series of seminars and meetings.
In January we traveled to Warsaw to participate in a week-long program on the legal and administrative framework needed to implement an ad valorem system. We made presentations at two seminars: one at the Sejm, the Polish Parliament, for its members and local government officials; and another at the Ministry of Finance for central government officials, professional experts and other interested parties. Our meetings with department officials focused on the draft laws being prepared by the ministry for introduction to the parliament later this spring.
The proposed ad valorem tax on real property in Poland will replace three existing taxes on urban, agricultural and forest property that are based on non-value-based rates per square meter of land and buildings. These taxes were introduced originally with purely fiscal objectives to expand the tax base beyond income and to capture wealth being diverted into real property assets. After the Soviet period, property taxes were recognized as an appropriate source of revenue for local governments. Since 1991 the revenues from the three existing taxes have been assigned solely to local governments (gminas).
The economic reforms introduced in the past decade by Deputy Prime Minister for Finance Leszak Balcerowicz have now reached such a stage of maturity that a market value-based tax on property is both feasible and desirable. There is an active and growing real estate market, including privatization of land holdings by local governments and secondary sales of residential and commercial properties. Ad valorem taxation will offer a stable source of revenue with a potentially broad and expanding tax base for local governments. It will provide the benefits of a more equitable distribution on taxes, as well as greater fiscal transparency and accountability.
An earlier USAID-funded feasibility study project in Krakow, in which the Institute also participated, resulted in legislative proposals for an ad valorem property tax in 1995. However, those efforts stalled in the face of complexities of land surveying, land registration and assessment administration.
Benefits and Obstacles
In this renewed effort, Polish officials are also focusing on the non-fiscal benefits of a value-based property tax, including its potential as a stimulus of real estate markets and mortgage credit institutions and as a tool for urban revitalization and more efficient land use. W. Jan Brzeski, president of the Krakow Real Estate Institute and adviser to the Deputy Prime Minister, has contributed to an understanding of these non-fiscal benefits through previous Lincoln Institute-sponsored research and education programs in Poland and other transition economies.
Considerable progress has been made in addressing some of the institutional obstacles to an ad valorem property tax that stalled the 1995 proposal. There is acknowledgment that a property tax information system and fiscal cadastre can be developed independently of title registries and land surveys that are as yet incomplete. Mass appraisal concepts and methods are more readily understood now and are viewed as opening new opportunities to the appraisal profession. Local governments have developed greater experience and influence to lobby for an autonomous source of revenue and greater independence in fiscal decision-making. Although local administrative capacity and expertise remain a concern for the over 2400 gminas, a possible solution may be found in placing fiscal cadastre and mass appraisal functions in the newly created regional governments (Powiats).
Discussions with Ministry officials concerning policy issues and implementation strategy focused on how to define market valuation in the law and how to educate local officials and taxpayers on its meaning and application. Current Polish law requires that detailed descriptions of taxation methods be written into legislation and that the local elected council approve the calculations. There is concern about an appropriate appeals system that will recognize both taxpayers’ rights and the government’s ability to achieve defensible mass appraisal models from less mature real estate markets. There is also a growing awareness of the importance of educating the public on the benefits and responsibilities associated with an ad valorem property tax.
The need to estimate implementation costs, develop effective administrative arrangements and assess the potential impacts of an ad valorem system has led some officials to propose one or more pilot projects before full implementation. However, this approach must be weighed against the possibility of losing the political momentum to enact ad valorem taxation in this parliament if legislative action is delayed until after pilot projects are completed.
Jane Malme is an attorney and fellow of the Lincoln Institute. She has researched and advised on property tax policy and administration for transitional economies and is preparing a series of case studies on the development of market value-based taxation in several countries. She is also a legal adviser on property taxation to USAID tax reform assistance programs in the Russian Federation.
Dennis Robinson, vice president for programs and operations, has worked on fiscal cadastre systems in Central and Eastern Europe and throughout Latin America.
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Over the past decade, the Lincoln Institute has developed and presented many courses on the interaction of land and tax policies and on the development of value-based land and real property taxation for policy makers and senior government officials from countries transitioning to market economies in Central and Eastern Europe and the Baltics. These courses address the economic and legal basis for value-based taxes as well as practical problems in their implementation.
As private property markets evolve, property changes hands and new wealth is invested in real estate. The introduction of ad valorem taxation is a natural step in the development of market-based economies. With economic growth and development, the revenue capacity of a value-based tax increases, and the tax can contribute to other important transition objectives such as privatization, government decentralization, infrastructure improvement and efficient land use. Nevertheless, the introduction of value-based taxation confronts both political and practical difficulties in developing an appropriate legal and administrative framework, as well as effective valuation, appeals and information systems.
The Baltic countries of Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania have been in the forefront of implementing value-based taxes on land (Malme and Youngman 2001). Estonia was the first of these new independent states to recognize the benefits of land taxation and to introduce a value-based land tax in 1993, followed by Latvia in 1998. Lithuania has been a leader in integrating and unifying real property cadastral, registration and valuation systems to strengthen nascent real estate markets and support real property taxation. Progress toward value-based taxation in Lithuania began with the integration of real property administrative units and the development of an automated central database of real property information in a self-funded state enterprise known as the State Land Cadastre and Register (SLCR). In 2001 the Ministry of Finance funded the SLCR to plan and develop a mass valuation system in preparation for the anticipated passage of laws that will introduce value-based taxation of real property throughout Lithuania. The first phase of this program was the development of land value maps that were completed and made public in 2003.
The Lincoln Institute and SLCR (renamed the Lithuanian State Enterprise Centre of Registers [SECR] in 2002) have worked collaboratively since 1997 to offer educational programs and document Lithuania’s progress (Malme 2001; Sabaliauskas and Aleksienė 2002). In 2003 the Institute and SECR developed a new executive course, Introducing a Market Value-Based Mass Appraisal System for Taxation of Real Property, for lawmakers and senior government representatives preparing to implement value-based taxes in other countries experiencing rapid political and economic change.
The course uses Lithuania’s experiences in market valuation as a case study, and SECR executives and specialists join core international faculty in the Institute’s Department of Valuation and Taxation to address the principles, strategies and practical problems raised by mass valuation of real property. The Lithuanian case study demonstrates how those responsible for developing that mass valuation system dealt with the problems they faced.
The first offering of the week-long course was presented in Vilnius, Lithuania, in October 2003 to a delegation from the Russian Federation, led by Alexey Overchuk, deputy chief of the Federal Land Cadastre Service of Russia (see related article). Participants included senior administrators of land valuation boards from various regions of Russia, officials from the federal ministries of Economic Development, Finance and Property Relations, and representatives from private companies involved in valuation system development. Two delegates from the National Cadastral Agency of the Republic of Belarus also participated. This course will be offered again in Vilnius in fall 2004 for a delegation from another country that is undertaking mass valuation for land or real property taxation.
Jane H. Malme is a fellow at the Lincoln Institute. She developed the new course on mass valuation with Lincoln Institute faculty Richard Almy, John Charman and Robert Gloudemans, together with SECR representatives Albina Aleksienė, Arvydas Bagdonavičius, Bronislovas Mikūta, Rimantas Ramanauskas, Antanas Tumelionis and Lidija Zavtrakova.
References
Malme, Jane H. 2001. Market value-based taxation of real property. Land Lines 13(1):8–9.
Malme, Jane H. and Joan M. Youngman. 2001. The Development of Property Taxation in Economies in Transition: Case Studies from Central and Eastern Europe. Washington, DC: The World Bank. Available at http://www1.worldbank.org/wbiep/decentralization/library9/malme_propertytax.pdf
Sabaliauskas, Kestutis, and Albina Aleksienė. 2002. Progress toward value-based taxation of real property in Lithuania. Land Lines 14(4):11–13.
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A well-functioning property tax system could offer many benefits to the nations of sub-Saharan Africa. At a time of decentralization, when local governments are being asked to assume new responsibilities for services and infrastructure in such countries as Sierra Leone, South Africa, and Uganda, a dependable and locally administered source of revenue would greatly benefit local democracy and economic development. It could improve the standard of living in local communities on a continent still grappling with abject poverty and poor governance.
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As the U.S. housing market experiences its largest contraction since the Great Depression, the Lincoln Institute of Land Policy and the Urban–Brookings Tax Policy Center took a closer look at the consequences of this crisis for state and local governments in a May 2010 conference. A major theme of the discussion was the fallibility of conventional wisdom. For example, some participants questioned whether easy credit was in fact the cause of the housing bubble and thus to blame for the subsequent loss of state and local tax revenues. Papers presented at the conference document the complexities researchers face in determining the causes and lessons of this crisis.
The Housing Market Boom and Bust
According to Byron Lutz, Raven Molloy, and Hui Shan, house prices at the national level increased by 64 percent from 2002 to 2006, before falling nearly 30 percent over the following four years. From 2006 to 2009, existing home sales dropped 36 percent and the number of newly constructed homes fell 75 percent. Could we have seen it coming? Was the housing market bust predictable? Yes, according to Yolanda K. Kodrzycki and Robert K. Triest, but only by looking at state-level data.
Conventional wisdom held that while house prices could fall in specific markets, national housing prices would not decline. This had been the historical pattern, although some markets, for example the Boston and Los Angeles metropolitan areas, experienced declines in the 1990s after strong increases in housing prices. Other areas, such as Detroit, had been declining or stagnant even when the country as a whole experienced consistent upward movement in house prices.
Much of the modeling and analysis of the housing crisis has used national-level data, which provided insufficient evidence to measure the peak of the housing bubble. Since economic cycles are more apparent at the state level and can act as early warning signs of housing trouble on a national scale, analyzing state data collectively can improve national forecasts.
Nevertheless, even the ability to recognize a housing bubble does not provide an easy prescription for preventing a crisis. Previous episodes of state-level housing price declines show that booms do not necessarily end in busts, Kodrzycki said. Rather, downturns are closely related to economic cycles. In most cases housing prices did not fall until after a recession had begun within a region—a pattern that is different from the current crisis.
The cause of the housing bubble is a crucial and unsettled question. Many economists have argued that easy credit was responsible, but Edward L. Glaeser disputed that view in a paper written with Joshua Gottlieb and Joseph Gyourko. Widely available credit and low interest rates do encourage more people to buy homes, increasing demand and raising housing prices. “This goes along with an older view,” Glaeser said, “that interest rates are very powerful in determining housing prices. There is some truth to that, but I think…those claims are overblown. Certainly the changes in the credit market can’t explain what we went through.”
Between 1996 and 2006, real housing prices rose by 42 percent, according to the Federal Housing Finance Agency price index. Glaeser and his colleagues found that low interest rates can likely explain only one-fifth of that increase. Other factors, including an elastic housing supply and credit-constrained homebuyers, can mute the effect of interest rates on prices. Buyers contemplating future moves or refinancing can take those factors into account when deciding how much to pay for a home. If the link between interest rates and house prices is smaller than expected, that knowledge can inform future federal housing policies and estimates of their effects on the housing market.
Impacts on State Revenues
State revenues plummeted in the recession, leading to record-high budget shortfalls just as demand for public services was growing. Inflation-adjusted state tax revenue fell nearly 15 percent during the downturn—the biggest drop in more than 50 years.
Donald Boyd noted that many of the first states to see their tax revenues decline also had been hit hard and early by the housing downturn. Arizona experienced its revenue peak in 2005, and by 2009 its real per capita tax revenue fell by 23.5 percent. Meanwhile, housing prices in Arizona tumbled 19.7 percent from 2006 to 2008.
States that were spared the worst of the housing crisis did not see revenue losses until the recession was in full swing. Texas had a 7.4 percent increase in housing prices from 2006 to 2008. Its tax revenues did not peak until late in 2008; roughly a year later, however, Texas saw its revenue drop by 17.5 percent.
Steven Craig and Edward Hoang examined how state government expenditures and taxes fluctuate with changes in underlying economic activity. They found that in general state responses initially tend to lag behind changes in gross state product, but in the long run states tended to overadjust to economic shocks.
Boyd found that in response to their budget gaps states cut spending in 2009 and 2010 primarily through furloughs and layoffs, and by stretching out payments of obligations into the future. States also cut grants to local governments, according to Howard Chernick and Andrew Reschovsky, who examined whether state budget crises lead to greater tax competition between states and their large cities. They find that in the long run cities with diversified revenue will be in a stronger fiscal position, but in the short run own-source revenue has declined more in cities with a diversified tax base (due in part to the strength of property tax). They also find that state aid is highly stimulative, but that increases in states sales tax rates will make it more difficult for cities to increase their sales taxes. The authors conclude that the current economic downturn will force significant public service reductions for large central cities.
Rachana Bhatt, Jonathan Rork, and Mary Beth Walker examined how higher education fared during the recession. While there have been highly publicized cuts in funding for higher education from general revenues, the overall level of expenditures for higher education has increased from 1996 to 2008. The authors find that across the business cycle states tend to substitute earmarked support for higher education (whether in the form of federal grants, lottery revenues, or other special accounts) for general fund support.
Federal stimulus spending in the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act (ARRA) helped boost state budgets and mitigate cuts in state aid to local governments, but those funds are set to expire in 2011. Boyd examined earlier recessions and found that the declines in state revenues have been more extreme this time. The good news, Boyd said, is that state tax revenue declines are showing signs of slowing and local revenues have not yet declined in aggregate.
“We might be stabilizing,” Boyd said. But, “it’s going to be a long ways before states are likely to have the capacity to finance the kinds of spending programs they have had…which means a lot of budgetary pain ahead still.” Indeed, the stabilization of state revenues on average was due in large part to tax increases in only two states, New York and California. Boyd predicts that it will be some time before other state revenues return to prerecession levels.
But, was this damage caused by the housing crisis? The recession may have been sparked by failing subprime mortgages, but it was fueled by overleveraged financial institutions—turning a housing slump into a global economic downturn. Lutz, Molloy, and Shan sought to separate the effects of the housing downturn on state and local tax revenues from the broader impact of the recession. They identified five main revenue streams that are influenced by the housing market: property tax revenues; transfer tax revenues; personal income tax revenues (related to construction and real estate jobs); direct sales tax revenues (through construction materials); and indirect sales tax revenues (when homeowners adjust their overall spending in response to changes in property value).
Property tax revenues remained high, and even grew in some states. The other four revenue streams declined, but had only a modest effect on overall state and local tax revenues. Lutz, Molloy, and Shan estimated that the combined decreases from these four revenue streams reduced total state and local tax revenues by $15 billion from 2005 to 2009, which is about 2 percent of state and local tax revenues in 2005. They found that in aggregate housing-related declines are responsible for only a fraction of the overall decline. Widespread unemployment and shrinking family incomes are more significant in cutting personal income and sales tax revenue. Thus, while the housing market and the economy are closely intertwined, the severe drop in state tax revenues can largely be attributed to the broader economic downturn, not the housing crisis specifically.
Local Governments and Property Taxes
As state revenues fell, local government revenues as a whole continued to grow because property tax revenue, which stayed strong in the recession, supported municipal budgets. States typically rely on income and sales taxes, which are more volatile than the property taxes that largely fund local governments. From 2007 to 2009, corporate and individual income tax revenue declined rapidly and sales tax revenue fell—but property taxes grew (figure 1).
In most states, housing price declines are not immediately reflected in assessed property values, and that lag makes property taxes a fairly resilient source of revenue. Also, policy makers tend to offset declines by raising tax rates (figure 2). James Alm and David L. Sjoquist backed these findings with their study of national trends in property tax collections. Although experiences varied among cities, they noted that local governments’ reliance on property taxes has been an advantage, allowing them to avoid some of the more severe effects of the recession.
Variable Effects in Selected States
While the conference focused on national trends, a recurrent theme was the dramatically variable experience of specific states and regions. Bruce Wallin and Jeff Zabel examined the effects of an earlier decline in Massachusetts house prices in the aftermath of a tax limit. Proposition 2½, passed in 1980, is a voter initiative that limits property tax levies (to 2½ percent of assessed values) and limits revenue growth to 2½ percent per year. There are exceptions for new growth, and Proposition 2½ does allow local voters to pass overrides to increase the growth percentage. Wallin and Zabel found property tax revenues overall did grow 4.58 percent between fiscal year 1981 and fiscal year 2009, largely due to these exceptions. A maximum of 547 overrides were proposed in 1991, but as few as 51 in 1999. However, poorer towns have been less likely to approve tax increases, relying instead on spending cuts, and leading to a growing gap between poor and wealthy towns over time.
Michigan, already struggling with the loss of manufacturing jobs, provides another striking case study. Poverty and unemployment rates there are higher than the U.S. average. In Detroit, housing prices plummeted—the average home cost $97,850 in 2003, but dropped to a remarkable low of $11,533 by 2009. Mark Skidmore and Eric Scorsone found that in the recession Michigan cut spending on recreation programs and delayed capital projects and infrastructure maintenance. That strategy may be effective in the short run, Skidmore said, but will likely result in higher costs down the road. He suggested that a similar fate might be in store for Las Vegas or cities in Arizona, which also experienced severe housing price declines.
Local governments in Florida and Georgia have remained fairly stable, so far. Florida experienced a tremendous increase in house prices from 1994 to 2006, before the housing market decline caused prices to fall across the state. William M. Doerner and Keith Ihlanfeldt found that city revenues in Florida rose during the housing boom, but not solely as a result of increased property values, and those revenues have stayed fairly strong following the drop in house prices. Alm and Sjoquist reported that property tax revenues in Georgia rose slightly between 2008 and 2009, while property values declined. Local governments, in many cases, maintained collections by increasing the tax rate.
What the Housing Crisis Means for Children
The housing crisis inflicted enormous costs on individuals, communities, and governments. Residents have been hurt by foreclosures and tremendous losses in property values (box 1). Vacant, deteriorating homes have weakened neighborhoods. The children caught up in the housing crisis face uncertain living situations and may have to transfer from school to school. Although researchers know these changes can harm children, they do not yet fully understand how this crisis is affecting students and schools.
David Figlio, Ashlyn Aiko Nelson, and Stephen Ross are studying how foreclosures hurt children’s educational outcomes. Their preliminary analysis indicates that schools serving neighborhoods with high foreclosure rates may experience declines in enrollment or community resources, with spillover effects on students whose families have not lost their homes.
Box 1. Foreclosure Statistics
Source: Figlio, Nelson, and Ross (2010).
The effects of the housing crisis on children, schools, and neighborhoods are also being examined by Jennifer Comey and her colleagues. The first stage of their work in New York, Baltimore, and the District of Columbia identified areas with high rates of foreclosures. They have found that foreclosures of multifamily and rental units can lead to displacement of renters, causing many families to be harmed by the upheaval in the real estate market. The second phase will track student transfers after foreclosures, comparing their former neighborhoods and schools with their new ones.
Comey and her colleagues will also analyze these students’ school performance through attendance, test scores, and dropout rates. They stressed the importance of coordinating housing and education services. Housing counselors need to know how students are affected by foreclosure and to understand relevant local school policies. A better understanding of these issues can help schools ease the burden on displaced and homeless students.
Looking Abroad . . . and Ahead
Government responses to the global housing crisis also vary around the world, and some countries may offer lessons for the United States. For example, Christian Hilber examined whether central government grants can help maintain housing prices and found that most such grants seemed to translate into increased property values.
Joyce Yanyun Man reported that local governments in China were encouraged to invest in real estate and infrastructure to stimulate economic growth. Rather than using property taxes, they turned to land leasing fees and borrowing to finance urban development. China’s GDP growth rate is rising, but local governments are heavily in debt. Given what we are learning about the stability of property taxes in the United States, China may need to consider a similar policy instead of relying on one-time leasing fees to generate extra revenue.
Although local governments have not suffered the same fate as states, at some point assessed values will catch up to housing price declines. Indeed, recent survey results from the National League of Cities indicate that cities are beginning to see their revenues soften. John E. Anderson warned that local governments are in a precarious position—the property tax base has shrunk and ARRA funding will end, which could create a delayed blow to revenue. If these forces cause local governments to raise rates, this could cause homeowners to push for property tax limits and other initiatives to reduce property tax rates. Anderson investigated the potential adjustments local governments may have to make as they reduce reliance on the property tax in favor of alternative taxes.
Hui Shan stated, “Historical data and case studies suggest that it’s quite unlikely for property tax collections to fall steeply in the next few years.” The delay between the housing downturn and a drop in property taxes may give the national economy time to recover, making up for the loss of stimulus funds and property tax revenue through higher income and sales tax revenue. The forecast is not clear, but state and local governments should be prepared for what the conference participants agreed will be a slow economic recovery ahead.
About the Authors
Kim Rueben is a senior fellow at the Urban Institute and leads the state and local research program at the Urban–Brookings Tax Policy Center.
Serena Lei is a research writer and editor at the Urban Institute.
Acknowledgments
We thank Ritadhi Chakravarti of the Urban Institute, Tracy Gordon of the University of Maryland, and Semida Munteanu and Joan Youngman of the Lincoln Institute for assistance in writing this summary. We also thank the authors and other participants at the conference for engaging in a stimulating discussion. All mistakes and errors are our own.
Conference Authors and Papers
Alm, James, Tulane University; and David Sjoquist, Andrew Young School of Policy Studies, Georgia State University: Rethinking Local Government Reliance on the Property Tax
Anderson, John E., University of Nebraska–Lincoln: Shocks to the Tax Base and Implications for Local Public Finance
Bhatt, Rachana, Georgia State University; Jonathan Rork, Reed College; and Mary Beth Walker, Georgia State University: Earmarking and the Business Cycle: The Case of Higher Education Spending
Boyd, Donald J., The Nelson A. Rockefeller Institute of Government, State University of New York at Albany: Recession, Recovery and State and Local Finances
Chernick, Howard A., Hunter College and the City University of New York; and Andrew Reschovsky, University of Wisconsin–Madison: The Impact of State Government Fiscal Crises on Vertical Fiscal Competition Between States and Local Governments
Comey, Jennifer, The Urban Institute; Vicki Been, NYU/School of Law and Furman Center; Ingrid Gould Ellen, NYU/Wagner and Furman Center; Matthew Kachura, The Jacob France Institute, University of Baltimore; Amy Ellen Schwartz, NYU/Wagner-Steinhardt/IESP; and Leanna Stiefel, NYU/Wagner-Steinhardt/IESP: The Foreclosure Crisis in Three Cities: Children, Schools and Neighborhoods
Craig, Steven G., University of Houston; and Edward Hoang, University of Memphis: State Government Response to Income Fluctuations: Consumption, Insurance and Capital Expenses
Doerner, William M., and Keith R. Ihlanfeldt, Florida State University: House Prices and Local Government Revenues
Figlio, David, Northwestern University; Ashlyn Akio Nelson, Indiana University; and Stephen L. Ross, University of Connecticut: Do Children Lose More than a Home? The Effects of Foreclosure on Children’s Education Outcomes
Glaeser, Edward L., and Joshua Gottlieb, Harvard University; and Joseph Gyourko, The Wharton School, University of Pennsylvania: Can Easy Credit Explain the Housing Bubble?
Hilber, Christian A.L., and Teemu Lyytikainen, London School of Economics and Spatial Economics Research Center (SERC); and Wouter Vermeulen, CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis, VU University and SERC: Capitalization of Central Government Grants into Local House Prices: Panel Data Evidence from England
Kodrzycki, Yolanda, and Robert K. Triest, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston: Forecasting House Prices at the State and National Level: Was the Housing Bust Predictable?
Lutz, Bryon, Raven Molloy, and Hui Shan, Federal Reserve Board of Governors: The Housing Crisis and State and Local Government Tax Revenue: Five Channels
Man, Joyce Yanyun, Lincoln Institute of Land Policy: Extra-Budget Spending, Infrastructure Investment, and Effects on City Revenue Structure: Evidence from China
Skidmore, Mark, Michigan State University; and Eric Scorsone, Michigan Senate Fiscal Agency: Causes and Consequences of Fiscal Stress in Michigan Municipal Governments
Wallin, Bruce, Northeastern University; and Jeffrey Zabel, Tufts University: Property Tax Limitations and Local Fiscal Conditions: The Impact of Proposition 2½ in Massachusetts
The complete conference papers are available for free downloading on the Lincoln Institute Web site at www.lincolninst.edu/education/education-coursedetail.asp?id=720
