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Most people are not particularly fond of paying taxes of any sort, but the discontent with one particular type of public levy, the local property tax, is gaining momentum across the country. Disgruntled homeowners are demanding that governors and mayors find alternative methods to raise revenue in order to relieve their own property tax burden.
Decades ago this discontent led to such tax limitation measures as Proposition 13 in California and Proposition 2½ in Massachusetts. More recently, this movement has been driven by sharply rising property tax levies in many cities and suburbs as a result of the extraordinary appreciation in property values over the past few years. The high visibility of the property tax, which in contrast to sales and income taxes is often paid annually in one or two large installments, makes this form of revenue generation an attractive target for taxpayer antipathy.
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Las ciudades enfrentan grandes dificultades a la hora de intentar introducir un sistema del impuesto a la propiedad más eficiente. Uno de los desafíos consiste en controlar la alta volatilidad política relacionada con los impuestos que gravan en forma directa los activos, como por ejemplo el impuesto a la propiedad, que posee un alto nivel de visibilidad. La estrecha proximidad entre las autoridades fiscales y los contribuyentes se traduce en una presión política para reducir los impuestos y evitar la actualización de los avalúos inmobiliarios. Los funcionarios municipales se convierten en blancos fáciles para la crítica, a la vez que pueden experimentar consecuencias electorales.
Aunque el impuesto a la propiedad es reconocido internacionalmente como un instrumento preferido para financiar los servicios públicos urbanos, en la mayoría de los países latinoamericanos este impuesto tiene una importancia limitada como fuente de recaudación, representando en promedio un 0,32 por ciento del PIB (De Cesare 2010). Las ciudades brasileñas recaudan un promedio de cerca de US$ 46,50 per cápita en impuestos a la propiedad por año. Sin embargo, la mayoría de las ciudades no alcanzan el promedio nacional. En más de la mitad de los municipios, los ingresos no exceden los US$ 5,00 per cápita (Afonso et al. 2010).
El modelo brasileño del impuesto a la propiedad
El impuesto a la propiedad (IPTU: Imposto sobre a Propriedade Predial e Territorial Urbana) es un impuesto directo tributado al municipio en base a una estimación del justo valor de mercado de las propiedades inmuebles. En Brasil se ha perdido gran parte del potencial de recaudación de este impuesto debido a que las autoridades municipales no logran administrar dicho impuesto en forma correcta y efectiva. El tratamiento de la revisión legislativa del IPTU siempre termina en debates acalorados y una respuesta política intensa que, en muchos casos, lleva a los alcaldes y otros funcionarios a evitar su participación en el proceso.
Un problema adicional es el estricto requisito legal mediante el cual los criterios de valuación deben ser aprobados por ley antes de poder actualizar la base impositiva. Entre estos criterios se encuentran las características de la propiedad y sus componentes, así como también el valor monetario asignado a cada uno de dichos componentes. En otras palabras, para los legisladores brasileños, no es suficiente establecer criterios para determinar que una propiedad tiene mayor valor que otra y que, por lo tanto, está sujeta a un impuesto más alto. La misma ley debe aclarar de qué manera una propiedad que posee determinadas características se valuará en términos monetarios.
Después de años de debate, el Tribunal Superior de Brasil estableció, en el año 1996, que se requiere una norma municipal para actualizar la base impositiva del IPTU, siempre que el ajuste sea mayor a la variación del Indice de Precios al Consumidor oficial (Declaración 160). Con anterioridad a esa sentencia, las ciudades solían actualizar los valores inmobiliarios a los fines impositivos mediante actos ejecutivos (decretos), en forma independiente de la legislatura municipal. A partir de la introducción de este requisito legal en 1996, muchos gobiernos municipales decidieron no enviar los proyectos de ley necesarios a la legislatura municipal para realizar las tan necesarias actualizaciones en la valuación inmobiliaria.
En algunos casos, los desastres políticos resultantes de esta situación sirvieron como un alarmante factor de inhibición ante cualquier nuevo intento por revisar la base impositiva. Con el fin de resolver este dilema, varias ciudades optaron, en cambio, por aumentar las alícuotas del IPTU para compensar su reticencia a revaluar las propiedades. Además, por cada nueva ley que aprueba una actualización en la valuación, se suelen crear nuevos tipos de exenciones o reducciones impositivas, lo que frecuentemente cancela los esfuerzos tendientes a mejorar el rendimiento del IPTU.
Como resultado de la resistencia política, el IPTU, por lo general, no se tuvo mucho en cuenta como fuente de ingresos para las finanzas municipales en Brasil. Las ciudades más grandes (con más de 500.000 habitantes) comenzaron a concentrar sus esfuerzos en el impuesto a los servicios (ISS: Imposto Sobre Serviços) mientras que las ciudades más pequeñas dependían en mayor medida de las transferencias realizadas por el gobierno estatal y federal a través del fondo municipal de participación en los ingresos (FPM: Fundo de Participação dos Municípios) (ver tabla 1 en anexo).
El Instituto Federal de Investigación Económica Aplicada (IPEA 2009) informa que el IPTU ha perdido importancia en cuanto a su participación en la recaudación municipal directa a nivel nacional y que se registró un aumento de los ingresos provenientes del impuesto a los servicios, un impuesto indirecto que tiende a ser regresivo. La participación del IPTU en la recaudación municipal directa se redujo del 38 por ciento al 28 por ciento entre 1991 y 2007, resultando en la pérdida de su posición ante el ISS como fuente principal de recaudación municipal directa (ver tabla 2 en anexo).
Un importante cambio que afectó directamente al IPTU ocurrió en diciembre de 2009, cuando el Ministerio de Ciudades publicó la Resolución Nº 511, mediante la cual se establecían directrices nacionales para el Catastro Técnico Multifinalitario (CTM: Cadastro Técnico Multifinalitário). Esta resolución les otorgó a los gobiernos municipales un valioso instrumento estándar sobre el cual basar sus propuestas legislativas con el fin de actualizar la base impositiva del IPTU. El Instituto Lincoln desempeñó un papel fundamental al apoyar el desarrollo de los aspectos técnicos de dicha legislación.
La Resolución Nº 511 establece que la valuación de propiedades con fines fiscales es un proceso técnico que debe realizarse siguiendo las pautas establecidas por la Asociación Brasileña de Normas Técnicas (ABNT) para reflejar el justo valor de mercado. También establece que un IPTU efectivo promueve la justicia fiscal y social al garantizar un tratamiento equitativo para los contribuyentes. Se recomienda la actualización de la base impositiva del IPTU en alguno de los siguientes casos: (1) cada cuatro años, en las ciudades con más de 20.000 habitantes (las ciudades más pequeñas podrán adoptar ciclos más extensos); (2) cuando la tasa de valuación sea menor al 70 por ciento o mayor al 100 por ciento comparada con el valor de mercado; o (3) en casos en que los valores inmobiliarios cumulativos resulten en un coeficiente de dispersión mayor al 30 por ciento, de lo cual se infiere que no estén distribuidas equitativamente.
¿Qué inspiró la reforma del impuesto a la propiedad?
Junto con el fortalecimiento de un marco institucional, otros dos factores contribuyeron a colocar al IPTU en el centro del debate actual sobre las fuentes de financiamiento municipal en Brasil. El primero de ellos fue el aumento acelerado de los valores de los terrenos urbanos, tanto en ciudades grandes como medianas. Este aumento se debió principalmente al crecimiento económico, a la explosión de los créditos para vivienda, a los bajos impuestos y al bajo riesgo comparado con la inversión en activos financieros desde 2003 hasta 2007 (Carvalho Júnior 2010). La expansión del sector inmobiliario expuso las discrepancias que existían entre la recaudación potencial y el flujo real de fondos hacia la tesorería pública derivado del impuesto a la propiedad.
El segundo factor que desató el debate acerca de la actualización de las valuaciones impositivas para mejorar el rendimiento del IPTU fue la crisis económica mundial que comenzó en el año 2008 y alcanzó al Brasil en 2009. A medida que se reducía la actividad económica, situación que reflejaba menores niveles de consumo y de producción y una contracción crediticia, las transferencias federales hacia los municipios también se redujeron. Las ciudades que experimentaron esta pérdida de ingresos no tuvieron otra alternativa que resucitar al IPTU, el impuesto municipal más antiguo y tradicional.
En este contexto, algunas de las ciudades brasileñas más grandes actualizaron sus mapas de valores inmobiliarios utilizando estimaciones revisadas de los valores de los terrenos, así como también elaborando cuadros de costos de construcción con el fin de valuar las mejoras, ya que tanto los terrenos como las propiedades tenían una valuación extremadamente baja. Belo Horizonte, São Paulo y Salvador se encuentran entre las ciudades que tomaron medidas para mejorar su recaudación mediante la actualización de la base impositiva del IPTU. Estas ciudades introdujeron, además, nuevas políticas para orientar la implementación del impuesto a la propiedad.
Cabe hacer notar que mantener desactualizada la base impositiva del IPTU supone un riesgo. Una de las principales fuentes de injusticia fiscal, además del problema de las omisiones al inscribir terrenos o áreas de desarrollo urbano, es la utilización de avalúos desactualizados para el cálculo del IPTU (Smolka y De Cesare 2009).
El caso de Belo Horizonte
Belo Horizonte es la capital, y la ciudad más grande, del estado de Minas Gerais, ubicada en la región sudeste de Brasil. Con una población de 2,4 millones de habitantes, es la quinta ciudad más grande de Brasil y el centro de un área metropolitana que contiene una población de aproximadamente 5 millones de habitantes.
El gobierno municipal tiene un largo historial de innovación y buena gobernabilidad. La ciudad fue pionera en introducir el proceso de presupuesto participativo en el año 1993, en adoptar aplicaciones del SIG (Sistema de Información Geográfica) para mejorar la gestión municipal, y en llevar a cabo una exitosa campaña para erradicar el hambre, entre otras iniciativas notables. Belo Horizonte recaudó aproximadamente $332 en impuestos a la propiedad per cápita en el año 2007, antes de la reforma, y alcanzó el séptimo puesto en el ranking de las ciudades capitales más grandes de Brasil (Afonso et al. 2010).
La reforma del impuesto a la propiedad comenzó en Belo Horizonte mediante una revisión de la base impositiva, con la doble intención de eliminar las distorsiones creadas por el modelo anticuado e introducir una nueva cultura fiscal que apoyaría un proceso permanente de actualización de las valuaciones inmobiliarias con el fin de reflejar las variaciones del mercado.
La necesidad de obtener ingresos adicionales, sumada a la experiencia de la crisis financiera del año 2009, también influenciaron las decisiones tomadas por el alcalde. Las subsecuentes reducciones en la actividad económica y en las transferencias federales convencieron al gobierno municipal de que se debían establecer condiciones financieras más sustentables para poder mantener la autonomía administrativa. El primer paso en el camino para actualizar la base impositiva del IPTU fue intensificar la utilización de este impuesto y convencer a los legisladores acerca de esta necesidad.
A la hora de elaborar una estrategia para la reforma tributaria, el gobierno municipal llegó a la conclusión de que el cambio no podría presentarse simplemente como una revisión de la valuación de las propiedades debido a la necesidad de aumentar la recaudación. También debería incluir otros aspectos, tales como medidas para mitigar el impacto del aumento impositivo y brindar incentivos para que los contribuyentes cumplieran con el pago del impuesto. Smolka y De Cesare (2009) mencionan que, a pesar de la precisión de las estimaciones de las valuaciones, si el ajuste provoca grandes diferencias en el monto de impuestos a pagar, se generará una reacción por parte de los contribuyentes que se verían sustantivamente recargados. En este caso, deberían ofrecerse planes para aliviar dicho impacto.
El proceso legislativo
Una vez diseñada la reforma e identificadas sus virtudes y vulnerabilidades, el proyecto fue remitido, primero, al concejo deliberante municipal, con el fin de mantener el enfoque en aquellas personas facultadas para votar y aprobar el proyecto de ley. Es un error común buscar el apoyo popular antes o durante el proceso de votación, ya que el poder ejecutivo, por lo general, pierde la batalla si intenta actuar en dos frentes al mismo tiempo.
Los procesos de votación en el caso del IPTU se establecen mediante ley municipal. No obstante, poseer un conocimiento profundo del proceso legislativo es muy necesario y, muchas veces, resulta un as bajo la manga. En Belo Horizonte, resultaba muy importante evitar tanto un proceso prolongado que pudiera dar lugar a un debate extendido como un proceso demasiado breve, ya que cualquier hecho inesperado podría posponer la votación indefinidamente.
Una vez presentados a los legisladores, se aclararon completamente todos los puntos del proyecto de reforma tributaria. Cada uno de los aspectos, tanto positivos como negativos, se debatió en el concejo, y por supuesto los aspectos favorables fueron siempre antepuestos a cualquier debilidad apuntada. Los legisladores deben escudarse ante las dudas que siempre se les plantean, además de estar constantemente bien informados y comprometidos con los criterios de justicia tributaria inherentes al proyecto. Este es el papel principal que desempeña el representante del alcalde, un miembro clave del grupo principal que implementó la reforma. Tal y como se preveía, a fines de noviembre de 2009 se aprobó el proyecto en su segunda y última ronda.
El debate legislativo acerca del proyecto de ley fue tanto un fin en sí mismo como una preparación para la presentación pública del proyecto. Durante el proceso de aprobación legislativa, se generaron muchas expectativas en cuanto a la reforma, particularmente por parte de la prensa. A partir de ese momento, la estrategia consistió en promover todos los beneficios del nuevo sistema de valuación y recaudación del IPTU, con el fin de eliminar todo motivo de temor hasta que verdaderamente llegara el proyecto de ley tributaria en enero de 2010.
La campaña de información pública
Los principales instrumentos utilizados para presentar la reforma al público consistieron en el lanzamiento de una campaña de información pública y el establecimiento de mesas de información en toda la ciudad para responder a las preguntas de los ciudadanos. La siguiente fase fue implementar las medidas destinadas a mitigar el impacto de la reforma y brindar incentivos para que los contribuyentes cumplieran con el pago del impuesto.
Durante la campaña, la administración hizo hincapié en el mensaje de que toda la recaudación derivada del IPTU se utiliza en obras que transforman las vidas de las personas. El objetivo de este mensaje era hacer concretos y visibles los beneficios del IPTU, lo que logró ser una forma eficiente de demostrar a los ciudadanos la importancia práctica de este impuesto para el desarrollo de la ciudad y para el bienestar de sus habitantes. Este mensaje se repitió frecuentemente.
En enero de 2010 funcionaban diez mesas de asistencia al contribuyente en diferentes partes de la ciudad. Cerca de 200 empleados municipales participaron en forma directa prestando asistencia a más de 20.000 consultas personales de los contribuyentes, de las cuales el 26 por ciento consistieron en solicitudes de revisión del proyecto de ley tributaria. Este porcentaje resultó mayor que en el año 2009, aunque mucho menor que las expectativas pesimistas que pronosticaban una avalancha de reclamos (ver figura 1 en anexo).
La estrategia general consistía en determinar en qué medida podía controlarse la situación, lo que implicó implementar una estructura tributaria compatible con el nivel de reclamos esperado. La elaboración de dicha estructura requiere una previsión y atención extraordinarias para calmar al contribuyente y concentrar su atención en lo que realmente es importante: el cálculo correcto del impuesto y su pago dentro del plazo establecido por ley.
Sin embargo, una buena estructura tributaria no resulta suficiente. Otro aspecto importante es la capacitación del personal para brindar servicios a los contribuyentes. Una atención confiable, calma y rápida evita arruinar la calidad del proceso, la revisión de la base impositiva y las nuevas políticas tributarias. Un buen servicio al contribuyente también reduce los riesgos políticos derivados de la actualización periódica de las valuaciones inmobiliarias.
La gestión del proceso
Entre las lecciones útiles que podemos extraer del proceso de reforma tributaria en Belo Horizonte, destacamos la importancia de evitar la actualización de la base impositiva solamente en tiempos de crisis financiera con el fin de aumentar la recaudación, ya que esto socava el trabajo de establecer prácticas de valuación correctas. En cambio, resulta aconsejable adoptar y mantener una política permanente de actualización que garantice la equidad.
En segundo lugar, debería hacerse hincapié en la equidad del proceso de revaluación, en vista de un mercado tan cambiante que impone variaciones de precios que requieren ajustes impositivos. Los impuestos sobre el consumo no discriminan en cuanto a la situación económica del contribuyente y poseen un efecto regresivo, mientras que el IPTU permite aplicar alícuotas progresivas, por lo que ayuda a mejorar el nivel de equidad que, a su vez, fomenta el acceso a la vivienda, contribuye a la autonomía municipal y conduce a una planificación eficiente de la ciudad. En lugar de depender principalmente de los impuestos indirectos o de las transferencias federales, el municipio que utiliza el impuesto a la propiedad en forma eficiente puede reducir las desigualdades sociales y ordenar los espacios urbanos con mayor efectividad, a la vez que evita las especulaciones y ayuda a preservar el medio ambiente (IPEA 2009).
Un tercer punto importante consiste en establecer canales claros para debatir sobre el plan de reforma. Preferiblemente, las medidas en cuanto a las políticas deberían ser tomadas por un representante confiable del alcalde, autorizado para negociar en su nombre mediante un proceso democrático y colectivo. Belo Horizonte estableció un grupo principal al frente del cual se designó a una persona encargada de coordinar qué tipo de información se divulgaría y de qué manera se debatiría con el público.
Si el proceso no se comprende cabalmente, puede generarse una resistencia insuperable, lo que pondría en peligro todo el proyecto. Así, uno de los factores claves consiste en tener un agente de prensa que esté bien informado y que sea capaz de tratar con las críticas y preguntas que seguramente deberá enfrentar, así como también un técnico que conozca bien el proyecto de reforma y pueda ofrecer las explicaciones que requieran los diferentes protagonistas involucrados en el proceso.
Medidas de exención del impuesto a la propiedad
Belo Horizonte logró su objetivo mediante los argumentos de justicia y autonomía administrativa, que culminaron en la aprobación de una revisión completa del sistema del impuesto a la propiedad, el cual incluyó las siguientes medidas de exención:
Evaluación de los resultados
La fase final de la reforma consiste en verificar los resultados. En Belo Horizonte, los resultados de dicha evaluación confirmaron el éxito de todo el proceso de planificación e implementación, a la vez que representa una fuente de información para las mejoras que deban realizarse en el futuro. Este éxito puede medirse, en parte, observando el aumento en los pagos del impuesto por adelantado, lo que ilustra la aceptación del modelo por parte de los contribuyentes. En la tabla 3 (en anexo) se comparan los aumentos en varias medidas desde 2009 hasta 2010. En la tabla 4 (en anexo) se comparan los aumentos en la recaudación del IPTU durante los primeros seis meses de cada uno de estos dos años.
No obstante, los logros mencionados podrían perderse a largo plazo si no se cumplen ciertas condiciones. Una de dichas condiciones consiste en institucionalizar la actualización periódica de los valores inmobiliarios utilizados para calcular el impuesto a la propiedad. Esta tarea resulta crítica, ya que la planificación estratégica utilizada en esta reforma tuvo como motivo principal precisamente el extenso período durante el cual el mapa de valores del suelo de Belo Horizonte se mantuvo sin modificaciones, lo que generó discrepancias con los precios reales del mercado y agotó los ingresos municipales.
La segunda condición consiste en crear mecanismos que garanticen la calidad técnica de las valuaciones impositivas y, a la vez, liberen al gobierno municipal de la carga política que supone realizar las actualizaciones necesarias. El objetivo es convertir al procedimiento de actualización tributaria en una obligación legal de naturaleza técnica en lugar de considerarlo una decisión política.
Otra de las opciones que consideraron fue la creación de un comité de valuación que realizara valuaciones colectivas coordinadas por las autoridades municipales. Dicho comité estaría formado por colaboradores de distintas entidades que forman parte del mercado inmobiliario, tales como agentes inmobiliarios, constructores, valuadores privados o entidades financieras. Esta medida ayudaría a apaciguar las connotaciones políticas que impregnan el sistema del impuesto a la propiedad y a desarrollar programas de revaluación inmobiliaria que dependan de los participantes del mercado en lugar de los críticos.
La exitosa experiencia de Belo Horizonte, aunque deja lugar para mejoras, puede servir de referencia para otras ciudades que deseen actualizar sus catastros inmobiliarios y sus pautas para realizar valuaciones colectivas. En la tabla 5 se delinean algunas de las cuestiones que deberán tenerse en cuenta hacia este fin.
Referencias
Afonso, José y otros. 2010. “The urban property tax (IPTU) in Brazil”. Informe de investigación sin publicar. Cambridge, MA: Lincoln Institute of Land Policy.
Carvalho Júnior, Pedro Humberto Bruno de. 2010. “Defasagens na cobrança de IPTU”. En Desafios do Desenvolvimento 61 (enero / febrero): 32.
De Cesare, Claudia M. 2010. “Overview of the property tax in Latin America”. Documento de trabajo. Cambridge, MA: Lincoln Institute of Land Policy.
IPEA (Instituto de Investigación sobre Economía Aplicada). 2009. https://www.ipea.gov.br/portal/images/stories/PDFs/comunicado/090827_com… (27 de agosto).
Smolka, Martim y Claudia De Cesare. 2009. “Necessária, revisão requer transparência”. En Folha de São Paulo, 14 de octubre.
Sobre el autor
Omar Pinto Domingos obtuvo su título en derecho en la Universidad Federal de Minas Gerais (UFMG) y su título de postgrado en administración de impuestos municipales en el Centro de Especialización en Derecho, asociado a la Universidad Gama Filho. Domingos es auditor fiscal y gerente de impuesto inmobiliario en la Municipalidad de Belo Horizonte y ha participado en varias comisiones de reforma tributaria. Asimismo, es conferencista regular sobre temas fiscales y tributarios en los cursos patrocinados por el Programa para América Latina y el Caribe del Instituto Lincoln. El presente artículo se extrajo de su presentación en un seminario realizado en Curitiba en mayo de 2010, patrocinado en conjunto con el Ministerio de Ciudades de Brasil.
Se agradece a Mario Collado por su ayuda con la traducción de este artículo.
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The recent recession has been recognized as the worst in memory, and its effects are still being felt. Less well understood is the fact that this recession has been far worse for state governments than the drop in gross domestic product (GDP) would suggest. While state government finances have stopped falling off a cliff, they are closer to the bottom of that cliff than the top. Tax receipts have not returned to their pre-recession levels, and new revenue demands may overwhelm any interim improvements in collections. Even if states can avoid these challenges, it will be a long, slow road to fiscal recovery, with several large risks along the way.
State and local governments play a major role in the economy and in our daily lives. They finance more than 90 percent of K-12 education and deliver virtually all of it. Public colleges and universities educate three-quarters of students enrolled in degree-granting institutions. State and local governments oversee, design, and build more than 90 percent of the nation’s public infrastructure. They finance much of the nation’s social safety net and implement much of it as well. In fact, state and local governments spend more on direct implementation of domestic policy than does the federal government.
The services financed and delivered by state and local governments tend to have stable and generally rising demand. When a recession hits, there is no reduction in the numbers of children in school or elderly people in nursing homes—two of the most important spending areas for state and local governments—or in the numbers of fires or crimes. For programs such as Medicaid and higher education, for example, demand for the kinds of services that state and local governments provide typically rises during recessions. Unless and until states can fix their revenue structures or develop adequate reserves, public policy will continue to gyrate with every turn in the economy.
Decline in State Tax Collections
The Great Recession that started in December 2007 was the deepest and longest recession since the Great Depression of the 1930s. The unemployment rate rose to 10.1 percent and has remained stubbornly high, falling only to 9.1 percent after two years of recovery. State tax collections plummeted, falling for five consecutive quarters beginning in the fourth quarter of 2008 and continuing through 2009. Tax revenue fell by a dizzying 16.8 percent in the second quarter of 2009, and over the next several years it declined further and more sharply than it had in any other recession since World War II (figure 1).
The recent drop in GDP has been significant in comparison to past recessions, but the declines in taxable consumption and personal income, two components that typically constitute the tax bases of state and local government, have been far worse. Taxable consumption fell by about 11 percent, while GDP fell by about 5 percent. Taxable components of personal income also fell much more sharply than the overall economy and still languish more than 5 percent below the pre-recession peak, reflecting the jobless recovery.
Even though this has been the worst post-war recession by traditional economic measures, these measures do not tell the whole story. Capital gains, an important component of state tax bases, are not included in personal income as measured in the nation’s economic accounts. These gains have increased in importance and are a major cause of increased volatility in state finances. Capital gains fell by more than 55 percent, driving down tax collections in the final quarter of the 2009 fiscal year, when tax returns reflecting the 2008 stock market collapse were filed.
The net result of these and other forces was huge declines in state income, sales, and corporate taxes. Figure 2 shows that annual income taxes fell by more than 15 percent in inflation-adjusted terms, sales taxes fell by more than 10 percent, and corporate income taxes fell by more than 25 percent. Property taxes, which are crucial to local governments but generally not a significant revenue source for states, remained quite stable through much of the period, although they are beginning to weaken and in some parts of the country have fallen significantly.
A Slow Recovery
The recession ended in June 2009 and the economy has been recovering slowly. State tax collections grew in each quarter of calendar year 2010, and the character of that growth has improved over time. In the first two quarters of 2010, increased tax rates more than offset declines caused by the weak underlying economy, but in the last two quarters tax revenue growth was driven primarily by the improving economy. By the fourth quarter, tax revenue grew by 7.8 percent, but even with-out tax rate increases it would have grown by 7.0 percent. Tax revenue in the January–March 2011 quarter grew 9.3 percent compared to the previous year, and 21 states had double-digit growth. Preliminary data for the April–June quarter show tax revenue up 11.4 percent.
Inflation-adjusted state tax revenue for the nation as a whole in the latest four quarters (ending in the first quarter of calendar year 2011) was 7.7 percent below the peak attained in 2007. The heady growth in the first two quarters of 2011 probably cannot be sustained because much of it appears to have been driven by stock market gains in tax year 2010, boosting income tax returns in the second quarter. Those gains almost certainly will not be repeated in 2011.
In addition, turmoil in European debt markets and the recent Standard & Poor’s downgrade of U.S. long-term debt have contributed to fears of a double-dip recession. There are indications that economic growth will be slower than most states have assumed in their current budgets. States are closer to the bottom of the cliff than the top, and are at risk of falling back down. Meanwhile, there are some signs that local government tax revenue also is beginning to weaken.
While tax revenues are now growing in most states compared to the last year’s low collection rates, they have not reached the levels prior to the recession. After adjusting for inflation, tax revenues for the latest four quarters are below the calendar year 2007 level in 43 states, and revenues are 10 percent or more below that level in 20 of those states. Among the seven states showing a positive shift in revenue collection, only Oregon (8.9 percent), Delaware (13 percent), and North Dakota (62.9 percent) are at levels above 2 percent.
State and Local Government Responses
States hit by falling revenue also face rising entitlement costs driven in large part by Medicaid enrollment, which typically increases after unemployed workers exhaust health insurance benefits. According to the National Association of State Budget Officers (2011, ix), Medicaid enrollment rose by 8.1 percent in fiscal year 2010, and by an estimated 5.4 percent in fiscal year 2011; states project a further increase of 3.8 percent in fiscal year 2012. These and other types of required expenditures cause further stress in the day-to-day operations of state and local governments.
It is difficult to measure the impact of spending cuts on state and local programs, but changes in state and local government employment can be tracked. Although private sector employment fell sharply from the beginning of the recession, state and local government employment continued to rise modestly for about a year and a half. Shortly before private sector employment reached its nadir, state and local government employment began to decline, and states and localities have been cutting employment aggressively. Local government employment is now about 3 percent below its peak, and state government employment is about 2 percent below its peak.
Education employment in most states is related primarily to higher education—community colleges, four-year colleges, and universities—although some is related to the administrative bureaucracy for elementary and secondary education, and in some states it includes part of the K-12 workforce. State government education employment has continued to rise significantly throughout the recession and recovery, reflecting in part the increased demand for higher education that usually comes with recessions (figure 3). When jobs are hard to find, many people choose to build skills and knowledge by entering an education program or extending their time in school (Betts and McFarland 1995).
Meanwhile, state governments have been cutting noneducation employment at an accelerating pace, so that it is now down almost 5 percent from its mid-2008 peak, nearly comparable to the current, slightly recovered condition for private sector employment. In each of the nine previous recessions, state government noneducation employment either did not decline at all or it declined by much less, as was the case in the 2001 recession.
Figure 4 shows the same employment data for local governments, which are being hit increasingly hard by slowing property taxes and cuts in state aid. Education employment is now down about 3.5 percent from its late-2008 peak, and the noneducation sector is down about the same percentage from its peak. There are no signs that these cuts are slowing, and little reason to believe they will abate in the near term.
Continuing Fiscal Pressures
The recent improvement in state tax revenue is welcome, but many challenges remain. States still face fiscal trouble for four main reasons. First, total revenue remains well below its peak. Second, the recession has had lagged fiscal effects, driving up the demand for many government services, especially Medicaid, other safety net programs, and higher education. The recession also has created other pressures and problems for states by depleting unemployment insurance trust funds, which may lead to higher unemployment insurances taxes in order to repay federal loans.
Third, state cyclical adjustments are not yet complete because they must contend with losses in both federal stimulus aid of more than $50 billion in fiscal year 2011–12 and the fact that temporary revenue measures put in place in response to the recession will expire soon. Fourth, even after this cycle is fully stabilized, states will have to contend with large increases in pension contributions and payments for retiree health care—a pressure that is likely to build for years to come for several reasons, including: increasing numbers of retirements by an aging workforce; the likelihood that health care costs will continue to rise more quickly than the overall rate of economic growth (Keehan et al. 2011); and, in the case of some pension systems and most retiree health plans, years of chronic underfunding.
States finance these services with unstable revenue sources, and tax revenue has become much less dependable over the last two decades, reflecting in large part the increasing role of volatile capital gains taxes. Unless and until states broaden their tax bases to make their revenue structures less volatile, or develop adequate reserves, public policy will continue to gyrate with every turn in the economy.
About the Author
Donald Boyd is the executive director of the national Task Force on the State Budget Crisis, co-chaired by former Federal Reserve Board chairman Paul Volcker and former New York lieutenant governor Richard Ravitch. Boyd is currently on leave from his responsibilities as senior fellow at the Rockefeller Institute of Government, where he conducts research on state and local government fiscal issues.
References
Betts, Julian R., and Laurel L. McFarland. 1995. Safe port in a storm: The impact of labor market conditions on community college enrollments. Journal of Human Resources 30(4):741–765.
Boyd, Donald. 2011. Recession, recovery, and state and local finances. Working Paper. Cambridge, MA: Lincoln Institute of Land Policy.
Keehan, Sean P., Andrea M. Sisko, Christopher J. Truffer, John A. Poisal, Gigi A. Cuckler, Andrew J. Madison, Joseph M. Lizonitz, and Sheila D. Smith. 2011. National health spending projections through 2020: Economic recovery and reform drive faster spending growth. Health Affairs 30(8): 1594–1605.
National Association of State Budget Officers. 2011. The fiscal survey of states. Washington, DC. http://nasbo.org/Publications/FiscalSurvey/tabid/65/Default.aspx
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Tao Ran es profesor en la Escuela de Economía de la Universidad de Renmin en China, y director del Centro Chino de Economía y Gobierno Público de dicha universidad. También es senior fellow no residente del Instituto Brookings. Su campo de especialización se centra en la urbanización de China y en la economía política de la transición económica, la reforma del sistema de registro de suelo y hogares, y los gobiernos locales y las finanzas públicas en la zona rural de China. Sus varias investigaciones han aparecido en las revistas academicas Journal of Comparative Economics, Journal of Development Studies, Land Economics, Urban Studies, Political Studies, China Quarterly y Land Use Policy.
El Dr. Tao recibió su PhD en economía en la Universidad de Chicago en 2002. Desde hace tiempo es fellow de investigación en el Centro de Desarrollo Urbano y Política del Suelo de la Universidad de Pekín (PKU)-Instituto Lincoln, y fue previamente un fellow Shaw de investigación en economía china del Instituto de Estudios Chinos de la Universidad de Oxford. Con fondos de PKU-Instituto Lincoln y de otras agencias, como la Fundación Nacional de Ciencias de China, lideró un equipo de investigación y comenzó una encuesta amplia sobre los migrantes urbanos y agricultores desposeídos en 12 ciudades de cuatro áreas urbanizadas principales de China: el delta del río Yangtzé (provincias de Jiangsu y Zhejiang), del delta del río Perla (provincia de Guangdong), la región de Chengdu-Chongqing (provincia de Sichuan y municipalidad de Chongqing) y el área de la bahía de Bohai (provincias de Hebei y Shandong). También está trabajando en un proyecto piloto de modelos de revitalización de pueblos urbanos en la municipalidad de Shenzhen y el delta del río Perla.
Land Lines: ¿Por qué es tan importante el estudio de economía política en China y su transición para el futuro del país?
Tao Ran: Como consecuencia de un crecimiento de casi el diez por ciento en las últimas tres décadas, China se ha convertido en la estrella brillante de la economía global del siglo XXI. La gente se maravilla de la transformación exitosa de un país del tercer mundo en la base manufacturera más grande del mundo y la segunda economía global, una evolución que sacó de la pobreza a 450 millones de personas. Sin embargo, a medida que China crece, enfrenta una brecha cada vez mayor de desigualdad de ingresos, corrupción y contaminación graves, e injusticia social que ha dejado a cientos de millones de migrantes temporales sin acceso a servicios públicos aceptables, y decenas de millones de agricultores desposeídos y mal pagados en transición a una economía urbana industrializada.
Mi investigación explora las fuentes institucionales del crecimiento rápido de China en las últimas décadas, así como las implicaciones, tanto negativas como positivas, de China —una autocracia efectiva y orientada al crecimiento, con grandes inversiones en infraestructura e industrias, exportaciones masivas de bienes manufacturados y políticas selectivas de intervención gubernamental e industrial— como un modelo alternativo para el mundo en vías de desarrollo. Creo que es esencial poder predecir lo que va a ocurrir en China en un futuro cercano, porque tendrá consecuencias importantes para el mundo en vías de desarrollo.
Land Lines: ¿Por qué cree que es importante estudiar el registro de suelo y hogares? ¿Qué nos dicen estos estudios sobre el estado actual de la estructura socioeconómica de China?
Tao Ran: China se encuentra inmersa en una revolución urbana, con un volumen masivo de migración del campo a la ciudad cada año de las últimas tres décadas. Alrededor de 200 millones de migrantes rurales están trabajando y viviendo en ciudades chinas. No obstante, bajo el persistente sistema hukou (registro de hogares), una mayoría de migrantes que están registrados en su lugar de origen se consideran “foráneos” o “población temporal” en sus nuevas ciudades de residencia. No tienen acceso a beneficios de asistencia social, viviendas públicas subsidiadas o escuelas públicas urbanas.
Sus dificultades se agravan por los patrones altamente distorsionados del uso del suelo. Normalmente, cuando los países se urbanizan, menos del 20 por ciento de los suelos de utilización nueva se usan para manufactura, dejando la mayoría del territorio para viviendas de la población migrante. Bajo el sistema actual de requisa y arriendo de suelo en China, los gobiernos locales arriendan todos los años alrededor del 40 por ciento de los suelos de utilización nueva para construir parques industriales, dejando sólo entre el 30 y 40 por ciento del área para fines residenciales.
Los sistemas vigentes del uso del suelo y del registro de hogares en China contribuyen asimismo a generar varias estructuras socioeconómicas duales. Además de la dicotomía sobradamente conocida ciudad-campo, también hay una estructura dual de residentes urbanos permanentes versus migrantes. Otra dualidad separa a los propietarios de los inquilinos urbanos, que han acumulado mucha menos riqueza. Como un 90 por ciento de los propietarios son residentes permanentes, y el 95 por ciento de los inquilinos son migrantes, estas estructuras duales crean una sociedad muy dividida.
Land Lines: ¿Qué problemas del uso del suelo enfrentará China en las próximas décadas?
Tao Ran: Muchas ciudades han construido parques industriales, o “fábricas estilo jardín”, que hacen un uso muy ineficiente del suelo. Las empresas industriales arriendan suelo a un precio extremadamente bajo y usan sólo una parte del mismo, dejando otras áreas sin desarrollar o asignadas para proyectos verdes a gran escala. Los gobiernos locales ofrecen poco suelo residencial y comercial, para poder maximizar sus ganancias, lo que produce mercados de suelo comercial/residencial con poca oferta, generando burbujas de precios en el sector inmobiliario. El rápido aumento de los precios de las viviendas urbanas y la formación de burbujas inmobiliarias a lo largo de la última década ha hecho imposible para la vasta mayoría de las poblaciones rurales migrantes poder acceder al inventario de viviendas en las ciudades. De hecho, incluso las personas que ingresan en la fuerza laboral con títulos universitarios descubren que actualmente los precios de las viviendas están fuera de su alcance. Claramente, el acceso económico a la vivienda se ha convertido en el principal desafío que hoy día enfrenta China.
Las consecuencias de la crisis financiera mundial de 2008 tuvieron un enorme impacto en China. El paquete de estímulo fiscal y financiero implementado por el gobierno central benefició principalmente a los gobiernos locales, que continuaron invirtiendo en todavía más parques industriales. Por lo tanto, la economía china ha experimentado un exceso de capacidad en infraestructura industrial y bienes de manufactura, como también burbujas más grandes en los precios de las viviendas en todos los niveles urbanos. Esta trayectoria es menos sustentable aún si se considera que China ya tiene un exceso de capacidad manufacturera y ha sufrido burbujas inmobiliarias antes de 2008. Dada la prác-tica éticamente dudosa de pedir dinero prestado a bancos del estado, y la ilusión fiscal de que la burbuja inmobiliaria continuará para siempre, las deudas de los gobiernos locales han llegado al nivel sin precedentes de 10 billones de RMB, la mitad de los cuales se acumuló después de 2009. Si no se reforman los sistemas de gobierno del suelo, el registro hukou y el financiamiento público local, la economía china se desacelerará de forma muy significativa. En el peor de los casos, la burbuja inmobiliaria explotará, lo que causará una crisis financiera y económica a gran escala.
Land Lines: ¿Cuáles son algunas de las consecuencias políticas de su investigación sobre gobiernos locales y finanzas públicas en las zonas rurales de China?
Tao Ran: China tiene que reformar sus sistemas de registro de suelo y hogares, para que los migrantes puedan acceder a viviendas económicas y servicios aceptables de educación pública en las ciudades. El suelo ha jugado un papel preponderante en el modelo de crecimiento de China en los últimos 15 años, pero también es responsable de los problemas económicos actuales. Desde mi punto de vista, un paquete de reformas centrado en el suelo y la urbanización es la mejor opción para crear un equilibrio entre las tasas de importación y exportación del país, para generar una enorme demanda interna y aliviar al mismo tiempo el problema de exceso de capacidad que aflige a muchas industrias chinas.
Yo propongo una estrategia gradual, que apunte a construir un sistema dual más equitativo. Bajo el sistema de regulación del suelo actual, la propiedad del suelo se divide entre urbana y rural; y mientras que los gobiernos urbanos tienen la autoridad para asignar áreas rurales para desarrollo urbano, los gobiernos rurales no tienen los derechos recíprocos. Esta discriminación ha privado a los residentes rurales de sus derechos de desarrollo inmobiliario, y ha llevado a la economía china por una trayectoria destructiva.
Una liberalización total, sin embargo, puede hacer explotar las burbujas inmobiliarias existentes, al ofrecer al mercado un gran volumen de suelo rural. Para reducir esta preocupación por parte de los gobiernos locales y de los propietarios de viviendas urbanas, es posible que China tenga que crear un mercado de propiedades en alquiler para los 200 millones de migrantes rurales que ya viven y trabajan en las ciudades. La mitad de ellos vive actualmente en dormitorios provistos por sus empleadores, y la otra mitad reside en viviendas construidas ilegalmente en pueblos urbanos sin buena infraestructura o acceso a servicios públicos, como educación para los hijos de los migrantes. Propongo una reforma que permitiría a las comunidades rurales en pueblos suburbanos de las ciudades que reciben a los migrantes que conviertan su suelo no agrícola en un mercado de vivienda urbano, bajo una condición: En los primeros 10 a 15 años, sólo podrían construir propiedades para ofrecer en régimen de alquiler. Después del período de transición, estas viviendas obtendrían derechos plenos y se podrían vender directamente en el mercado inmobiliario.
Land Lines: ¿Cuáles son las ventajas de este diseño?
Tao Ran: Al confinar inicialmente el suelo rural desarrollable al mercado de alquiler, se crea un colchón para el mercado inmobiliario existente y se evitan los pánicos bursátiles y que explote la burbuja inmobiliaria. La fusión posterior de estos dos mercados, sin embargo, enviaría a los especuladores una señal confiable de que los precios de las viviendas residenciales no crecerán más, y el gobierno central podría ir eliminando las regulaciones estrictas sobre el mercado inmobiliario impuestas desde 2010 para controlar la burbuja inmobiliaria. Este paquete de reformas contribuiría a un crecimiento saludable del mercado de vivienda. Más aún, el otorgamiento de derechos de desarrollo inmobiliario a las comunidades rurales –si bien restringidos durante el período de transición– abriría un canal legal para solicitar préstamos para el desarrollo inmobiliario.
Esta oportunidad generaría un auge en la construcción de viviendas en pueblos urbanos y áreas suburbanas, y estimularía la industria de la construcción, que tiene un exceso importante de capacidad. A diferencia de la burbuja de vivienda actual, este tipo de desarrollo inmobiliario es más beneficioso socialmente y económicamente sustentable. Los residentes rurales, particularmente aquellos que viven cerca de los centros urbanos, se beneficiarían directamente. Este crecimiento en el mercado de propiedades de alquiler también proporcionará viviendas asequibles para cientos de millones de trabajadores migrantes, lo que les permitiría que se asentaran en las ciudades de forma permanente. La urbanización tiene el potencial de distanciar la economía china del modelo impulsado por inversión.
Land Lines: ¿Cuál es la clave para el éxito de esta reforma?
Tao Ran: La actitud de los gobiernos locales es fundamental. Su preocupación sobre cómo generar ingresos es perfectamente legítima, y el paquete de reformas tiene que resolverla. Bajo el sistema actual, los gobiernos locales tienen demasiadas gastos, y no cuentan con ingresos adecuadas. Después de la reforma, tendrían un poder limitado de requisa de suelo, y se desharían de la gran cantidad de aranceles por arriendo de suelo y préstamos bancarios asociados con dicho poder. A largo plazo, las municipalidades deberían recaudar impuestos sobre la propiedad para generar una fuente estable de ingresos para el financiamiento público local. Dada la fuerte resistencia de los residentes adinerados y políticamente poderosos de las ciudades que han introducido programas piloto de impuestos sobre la propiedad, no es práctico esperar que este nuevo impuesto entre en vigor en poco tiempo.
Creo que otra fuente no explotada por los gobiernos locales es el suelo industrial subutilizado. De acuerdo con varios informes, el coeficiente de edificabilidad en los parques industriales es sólo de 0,3 a 0,4, aun en áreas desarrolladas de China. Si se negocia una reorganización, es posible duplicar el desarrollo del suelo y convertir parte del suelo industrial para uso residencial y comercial. Nuestras estimaciones muestran que los gobiernos locales saldrían beneficiados al renunciar a la potestad de requisa del suelo, y podrían usar estos ingresos para pagar deudas y evitar una crisis financiera.
En la etapa actual de desarrollo, ninguna reforma de la economía china será fácil. Nadie se debería hacer ilusiones sobre una solución rápida. Pero el paquete de reformas de mercado dual propuesto brinda una esperanza de alentar el consumo interno y aliviar el problema de exceso de capacidad en muchos sectores. Un factor particularmente favorable para esta reforma es el énfasis que ha puesto el nuevo gobierno en la urbanización. El primer ministro Li Keniana ha invertido muchos años en este tema y parece tener un interés genuino en lograr soluciones. Esta propuesta puede proporcionar una hoja de ruta realista para dichas reformas.
Land Lines: ¿Qué lecciones puede darnos China?
Tao Ran: El modelo chino genera crecimiento de forma efectiva. También produce varias consecuencias negativas, como el endeudamiento excesivo por el uso del suelo, los conflictos sociales debido a la requisa de suelo, daños medioambientales y burbujas inmobiliarias que suponen una carga para la población urbana. La lección china es que el gobierno es esencial para que un país crezca, pero ese mismo gobierno puede exagerar las cosas y, a largo plazo, generar distorsiones que dañan en última instancia la sostenibilidad de la economía y la sociedad.
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Almost 30 years ago, Amalia Reátegui and her husband, Eusebio, packed up their possessions, wrestled together their eight children, and moved to their new home: a dusty plot of land on the barren outskirts of the Peruvian capital, Lima. At first, life wasn’t easy there. Basic services, like running water and electricity, weren’t available. Roads were unpaved, and public transportation was nonexistent. Quality schools and health clinics were far away, in the more established and wealthier neighborhoods.
But even though conditions were tough, moving to San Juan de Lurigancho, one of Lima’s earliest informal settlements, offered the couple a rare chance to become homeowners, which would have been out of their reach in the city’s traditional districts.
Little by little, things improved. They built a sturdy house made of concrete, got electricity and, years later, running water and sewage. Buses arrived, and even a metro connecting San Juan de Lurigancho to the rest of the city. Their children went off to postsecondary education, and later landed jobs in hospitals, the municipality, and the navy.
Just as important for Amalia and Eusebio was a piece of paper from the government—the title recognizing their formal ownership of the 120-square-meter plot of land where they lived.
Today, the couple still lives in the same peach-colored house, but their family home, like their neighborhood, has been transformed over the years. The one-story house is now a four-story building with eight two-bedroom apartments, one for each of their adult children.
For Amalia, a 71-year-old soft-spoken grandmother with shoulder-length black hair, this was all part of the plan. “When we first built our home, I always thought it would be for my children,” she said. “It is my house, and it is for them.”
But for her children, who spent the equivalent of tens-of-thousands of dollars to build the upper floors, the current living situation leaves them in a legal limbo, where the ownership of their apartments is based solely on a verbal agreement with their parents rather than legal paperwork.
Reverting to Informality
The case highlights a new trend that is puzzling experts of urban development and property rights in Peru. After years of demanding legal titles for their homes, residents are allowing their properties to become deregularized by failing to use the national registry, known as Sunarp, to document property transactions such as real estate sales, change of ownership within families, or the construction of additional floors subdivided into apartments. As a result, properties revert to informality, and the government registry does not accurately reflect the actual owners.
The issue is a growing concern for policy experts, who say it could have major social, economic, and legal costs. Without legal registration, disputes can quickly arise among siblings over ownership of a family home after the parents die. Resolving the dispute can lead to high legal costs in Peru’s already overburdened and slow courts. Informal owners can’t use their property as collateral for formal bank financing, and they face lower resale value if they decide to put their home on the market. It also risks undermining the sustainability of Peru’s pioneering titling program, a popular tool aimed at promoting economic development that was later emulated around the world.
“The children are now living in the same situation that their parents were living in 40 years ago. They’ve become informal again,” said Julio Calderón, a Peruvian sociologist, Lincoln Institute researcher, and expert on property rights. “Urbanistically, this is a time bomb.”
The Rise of Informal Settlements in Peru
Like other Latin American capitals, Lima experienced a population explosion during the second half of the last century, as migrants from across Peru flooded into the arid coastal city seeking a better life.
In 1950, fewer than a million people lived in Lima. By 2000, that number had ballooned to 7.4 million, according to the United Nations Population Division. Today, the Peruvian capital is home to more than 9 million people, representing almost a third of the country’s total population. The drivers of Peru’s internal migration are varied, but it’s mainly a result of political and economic hardships in the countryside. In the 1970s, the rural economy crashed following a failed agrarian reform by General Juan Velasco, a leftwing military dictator.
The economy was battered again in the early 1980s during one of the worst El Niño weather events on record, causing damaging floods and collapse of the fisheries. At around the same time, the leftist Shining Path rebels launched a violent insurgency in the southern highlands, forcing many residents there to flee to Lima to escape a bloody conflict that would claim about 70,000 lives.
In Lima, the government wasn’t prepared for the wave of migrants. With nowhere to live, new residents began to take over vacant land on the city’s outskirts, sometimes clashing with police. One of those informal developments eventually became San Juan de Lurigancho. Hector Nicho, a community leader there, remembers the authorities as being powerless to stop the flood of people who seized land, hoping to make it their own.
“The first day of the invasion, there were 15 or 20 people. The following day, we were 500. The day after that, we were 1,500. It just kept growing. They couldn’t stop it, even though the state had sent police,” said Nicho, who was just a boy when he participated in the land invasion some four decades ago.
Land grabs occurred throughout Lima, eventually leading to the creation of districts like Villa El Salvador on the city’s southern edge and San Martin de Porres in the north. The squatters were some of the city’s most impoverished residents, living in areas noticeable for the lack of state presence and vast informal economy.
By the late 1980s, things were only getting worse. Peru’s economy had spiraled into hyperinflation. The Shining Path, once confined to the rural highlands, was fast encroaching on Lima, threatening to overthrow the government and install a Maoist-inspired regime.
De Soto’s Titling Program
Around this time, Hernando de Soto, a Peruvian economist, proposed a way out of the mess. De Soto argued that providing legal ownership to property would trigger development by allowing the poor to leverage their individual assets in the formal economy and access financing. But complex and expensive bureaucratic barriers were preventing that from happening, De Soto said.
“They realized that one of the biggest obstacles to registering property in Peru was their own public registry,” said Angel Ayala, a lawyer and expert on property registration. “The problem wasn’t the informality. The problem was that the formal sector wouldn’t allow you to enter it,” he said, referring to the government’s then-complex and costly regulations for property registration.
De Soto’s ideas were embraced by Peru, which created a new legal framework to provide property titles for people like the Reáteguis, living in informal settlements in places like San Juan de Lurigancho.
In 1996, the government created the Commission for the Official Registration of Informal Property (COFOPRI) to lead a nationwide urban titling program. It also created a parallel registry, known in Spanish as the Registro Predial Urbano. The registry, which focused only on Lima’s informal settlements, slashed the requirements for property registration, making it faster and cheaper for poor land owners to get titles.
The results were impressive. According to Regularization of Informal Settlements in Latin America, a Lincoln Institute report by Brazilian lawyer Edésio Fernandes, COFOPRI reduced the time to obtain a title from 7 years to 45 days. It cut the number of steps from 2,007 to 4. The cost of registering declined from US$2,156 to almost nothing.
Since its creation, COFOPRI has issued about two million property titles, making it one of the largest programs of its kind in the world.
“The people who worked there worked 24 hours a day,” said Jorge Ortiz, a former COFOPRI employee who later became the superintendent of Peru’s traditional public registry, known as Sunarp. “They really identified with what they were doing.”
De Soto’s titling policy became the preeminent approach for land regularization around the world. It won praise from development organizations like the World Bank and the Inter-American Development Bank, and from politicians like former U.S. President Bill Clinton. Peru, as a pioneer of the program, became a model for other countries in Latin America, Africa, and Asia that were also grappling with widespread informality and poverty.
Almost 20 years since the creation of COFOPRI, academics have identified several social and economic benefits from titling. Families with formal title, for example, invest more in their homes and their children’s education, studies show. They also have fewer children.
Critics of the program, however, argue that De Soto’s main hypothesis—that titles will increase the poor’s access to formal credit—has simply not materialized as he envisioned.
They also point to unintended consequences of large land-titling programs, such as political manipulation and incentive for squatters to continue invading land, creating new informal developments without services, in the hope of being registered one day.
The Risks of Deregularization
In Peru, one of the main concerns is the sustainability of the titling, as more and more properties are becoming deregularized. Years after they seized land, the original property owners are retiring or passing away. Their property, often given to their children, is slipping back into informality.
“What we have seen happening is that the second and third property transactions are no longer registered. For a number of reasons, people simply fail to keep their properties fully legal,” said Fernandes. “So in a few years’ time, you are back to square one in terms of the legalities of the area.”
Unless the trend changes, policy experts say, the government’s aggressive titling program could unravel, along with its benefits.
Informal property owners risk losing the most basic benefit of titling: tenure security and legal protection against eviction and fraud. They could face other costs, like legal expenditures to resolve disputes over ownership.
There are also opportunity costs. Informal homeowners can’t use their property to access formal credit. They’d also miss out on receiving fair market compensation if they decided to sell their home.
The extent of the deregularization is difficult to gauge, but a recent Lincoln Institute study by Oswaldo Molina, an Oxford-trained economist, found that just 21 percent of second property transactions in Peru’s recently titled areas were being formally registered (Molina 2014).
“When the reform started, it wasn’t just an issue of providing titles to the people, but maintaining them formal,” said Molina. “So what happened with the other 79 percent?”
“We are now going to have numerous properties with titles, but in the name of someone else,” he added.
Causes for the Failure to Register
During his time as the head of Sunarp, Ortiz said it was extremely rare to see individuals registering second property transactions. For Ortiz, this has been a disappointment.
“I believed in the model from the 1990s,” said Ortiz, who was the head of Sunarp during the start of President Ollanta Humala’s administration in 2011. “And now, some 30 years later, I’m seeing that it could go to waste.”
The causes of deregularization are obscure, but experts point to cultural issues and changes in public policy as important drivers.
In many places in Peru, there is a strong respect for the verbal decisions of parents, even concerning important legal issues like property registration. In cases where a family home is subdivided, children rely on their parents, the property owners, to sign off on the transaction in order to provide them with a formal title.
Experts say that many parents are happy to let their children pay for the subdivision, but they don’t consider providing formal title, believing that a verbal agreement is sufficient to split up the property. In other cases, parents refuse to provide title over concerns that they could lose control over their home.
“There is still a culture where you respect the decision and the word of the parents,” said Jesus Quispe, the director of Cenca, a Lima-based urban development institute, which works in San Juan de Lurigancho. “Few transactions go through the legal system. There is a culture of informality.”
Ramiro García, the head of the urban program at the Peruvian development organization Desco, says many families ignore the public registry until they confront a problem, like a legal dispute over ownership.
“It is bureaucratic, expensive, and families don’t consider it necessary,” he said from his office in Villa El Salvador.
Before Lima’s population boom, families that couldn’t afford to buy a home could move to the outskirts, grab a piece of land, and build a house. Today, most of the vacant land is gone. What remains is located on the edge of mountains, often unstable for living.
As land has become scarcer, demand for housing has remained robust. As a result, the city has started to expand upward, with apartment buildings replacing houses.
Real estate prices have also skyrocketed, driven by Peru’s strong economic growth over the past decade. For young families from lower-middle class backgrounds, escalating costs have made it increasingly difficult to acquire their first home.
To help their children, parents who settled Lima’s outskirts a few decades ago are now adding two or three floors to their homes, and subdividing them into apartments.
In San Juan de Lurigancho, Melly Rosas, a 53-year-old secretary at a church, decided to add three more floors to her house after watching her married children struggle to save up enough money to buy a property.
“At first, this wasn’t our plan,” she said. “But it was too expensive for them to buy land while paying rent.”
“We are growing upward because there isn’t any more space,” Rosas added, referring to the increasing number of buildings in her neighborhood.
Rosas and her husband, Ricardo, haven’t looked into providing titles for their children’s apartments, but they plan to. “We know we have to do so, because it will reduce a lot of problems they could have,” she said. “Right now, everything is verbal.”
A short drive away, on a quiet, residential street, Marcelo Nuñez, a 52-year-old shoemaker, lives in a spacious house with high ceilings that help to keep it cool during Lima’s hot summer days. Attached to the house is a small store, where his wife sells soft drinks and potato chips.
Like their neighbors, Nuñez and his family slowly built their home over the last 30 years, one wall at a time. Now his 28-year-old daughter is building a second floor, where she plans to live with her baby boy. Nuñez’s son, 25, will likely live on the third floor.
Nuñez said he hadn’t planned to register the upper floors, even though they will be owned by his children. “For my part, I hadn’t thought about doing it legally, because we are family,” he said. “It’s pretty strange to do a subdivision legally. Normally it is just by word.”
But, like Rosas, Nuñez agrees that leaving his children without formal titles could create future problems. “If they’re in agreement, I wouldn’t have a problem with doing it legally,” he said.
But cultural factors aren’t the only impediment to property registration. Policy experts say that people like Rosas and Nuñez will run into several costly regulatory requirements if they eventually decide to formalize their properties.
The obstacles arose, experts say, due to the government’s decision to eliminate the Registro Predial Urbano, the parallel registry created to speed up formal registration in Lima’s informal settlements.
In 2004, Peru merged the Registro Predial Urbano into Sunarp, the traditional public registry that was seen as too costly and bureaucratic. The Registro’s simpler procedures for second and third property transactions were replaced by Sunarp’s more complicated and costly requirements.
Critics of the decision say the government made the change due to lobbying from powerful groups representing public notaries, who were concerned about losing lucrative business due to the Registro Predial Urbano. Unlike the traditional registry, the Registro allowed property owners to hire any lawyer, not just notaries, to legalize their transactions.
“By returning to the previous system, the costs multiplied by five. People said, ‘No, I’m not going to do that,’” said Ayala, the lawyer and expert on titling. “The issue isn’t cultural. It is about how to maintain the titling process in the formal system.”
Deregularization in Peru has far-reaching consequences for other countries that established their own titling programs based on the Peruvian model.
Argentine economists and Lincoln Institute researchers Sebastian Galiani, of the University of Maryland, and Ernesto Schargrodsky, of the Universidad Torcuato Di Tella, found that in a recently titled suburb of Buenos Aires a significant portion of households were falling back into informality. In a 2013 study, the authors concluded that deregularization was likely due to the unaffordable cost of keeping the properties formal (Galiani and Schargrodsky 2013).
“This isn’t just a Peruvian issue, but something that is much larger in the region,” said Molina, the economist who studied deregularization in Peru. “It is a problem with the short-term view of the reform.”
Potential Solutions
To stem the tide of deregularization, policy experts say authorities will need to intervene now to prevent the need for costly retitling programs in the future.
Some small steps have been taken. In 2007, the government issued legislation to provide lower-income title holders with funds to formalize subdivisions, a process that first requires them to register construction of the house. (Peru’s registration program gave residents titles to the land, but not the house built on top.) However, registration experts say the 2007 program was never fully implemented.
More importantly, experts say the government should reinstate simpler procedures, like those that were discarded when the Registro Predial Urbano was integrated into Sunarp. “The concrete thing to do would be to reconsider mechanisms that were used before,” said Molina. “The Registro was created so that the poor could correctly receive titles.”
Regulatory changes may not be enough on their own. Many experts insist that the problem requires authorities to tackle Peru’s broader culture of informality as well. To do so, they say, the government should launch a campaign to educate residents about the importance of maintaining their properties formal.
“This is a problem that the government has to address,” said Gustavo Riofrio, a sociologist and Lincoln Institute researcher who has spent his career studying property rights. “You have an entire city that was made by these people who are facing the same problem. It is now a social problem, not an individual one.”
Officials at Sunarp say they are working to simplify procedures for property transactions, without jeopardizing the legal security that the current system provides. Sunarp says it is also working to educate people about the importance of using the registry, but acknowledges that the government “hasn’t been able to instill in the population the importance of formalization.”
Until there is a greater acceptance of the regulatory system, some lawyers say Peru should make registration compulsory. Unlike many other countries, Peru does not require registration of property transactions; it’s voluntary.
“We have to educate people so they understand that registration doesn’t just provide security. It’s important to create value as well,” said Ortiz. “But until we have a new culture, we need to require people to register by modifying the civil code.”
At the home of Amalia and Eusebio, in San Juan de Lurigancho, their 40-year-old daughter Emma is eager to discuss property titles.
Emma, who lives in a third-floor apartment with her son, says the subdivision of her childhood home is working out nicely so far. The family members respect each other’s space, but they still get together for a lunch on Sunday. The children also help their aging parents with expenses such as food.
But Emma says she knows it’s important to define ownership legally, especially after seeing cases where other families get mired in legal conflicts over their home. She thinks her parents will eventually start the process to provide their children with titles.
“My mom and dad still feel physically well. When that changes, I think they’ll let it go,” she said. “But for the moment, they are still keeping it tied up. For me, that’s OK.”
Ryan Dubé is a Canadian journalist based in Lima, Peru. His articles have been published in The Wall Street Journal, The Globe & Mail, and Latin Trade. He has also worked on projects for the Economist Intelligence Unit.
References
Fernandes, Edesio. 2011. Regularization of Informal Settlements in Latin America. Cambridge, MA: Lincoln Institute of Land Policy. www.lincolninst.edu/pubs/dl/1906_1225_Regularization%20PFR%20Rev%202012.pdf
Galiani, Sebastian and Ernesto Schargrodsky. 2013. “Land De-Regularization.” Working paper. www.utdt.edu/ver_contenido.php?id_contenido=2674&id_item_menu=4526
Molina, Oswaldo. 2014. “Loss of Plot Formality through Unregistered Transactions: Evidence from a Natural Experiment in Peru.” Working paper. Cambridge, MA: Lincoln Institute of Land Policy. www.lincolninst.edu/pubs/2447_Loss-of-plot-formality-through-unregistered-transactions
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Value capture instruments are widely considered to be beneficial fiscal planning mechanisms, even though they are difficult to implement. Colombia is notable in Latin America for its unique and long-standing experience with institutionalizing value capture through collecting the Contribución de Valorización, a kind of special assessment, and the Contribución de Desarrollo Municipal (Law 9 of 1989), which preceded the current instrument, Participación en Plusvalías.
Since 1921 when the first such legislation was introduced, Colombia has developed a fiscal culture in which people are aware of and accept value capture instruments as a legitimate revenue-raising mechanism. For example, in 1968, at the height of its use, the Contribución de Valorización accounted for 16 percent of local revenues in Bogotá and about 45 percent in Medellín; in the early 1980s it raised about 30 percent of total revenues in Cali. Nevertheless, because land still plays an important role as a hedge against inflation in places like Colombia, where capital markets are not highly developed, the implementation of such devices still meets with strong political resistance from many constituencies, ranging from powerful landowners and developers to low- and moderate-income families for whom land is an important source of personal savings.
Building on this experience, Law 388 of 1997 creating Participación en Plusvalías decrees that all municipalities must design and approve a ten-year master plan (Plan de Ordenamiento Territorial-POT) and adopt plusvalías as one of the plan’s main sources of income. The revenues raised through plusvalías are to be used primarily for the provision of social housing and infrastructure in under-served neighborhoods, as well as for public works of general interest. The law establishes three administrative conditions for applying the plusvalías instrument as part of the POT:
1. when land changes from one category to another, especially when rural land with low development potential is included within the master plan’s growth boundary and therefore becomes designated as land for urban expansion or as suburban land;
2. when additional development (density) rights are authorized in an area; or
3. when an area changes use, especially from residential to commercial use.
The Participación en Plusvalías is grounded in the legitimate public right to participate in capturing land value increments resulting from administrative actions such as changes in zoning or density that may generate substantial windfalls for the landowner. It is important to note that this instrument is not a tax, a contribution or a fee, but rather a mandated right of the public to ‘participate’ in the value generated by government functions aimed at enhancing urban development. Law 388 and its accompanying decrees define the general parameters for using plusvalías, but the municipalities are required to determine its specific procedures. However, many mayors and other public officials are concerned about the law’s ambiguities and are struggling with the process of applying both the law and the plusvalías instrument.
To address the need for a forum in which public officials and other experts could discuss this problem, the Lincoln Institute and the Bogotá Planning Department held a seminar in December 1999, before the deadline for approval of the legal master plan (POT) on December 31. The seminar convened practitioners actively involved in the implementation process, including planning directors from major cities, representatives of national public agencies and ministries, representatives of institutions in charge of property assessments, lawyers, and scholars involved in the design of the instrument. One immediate outcome of the seminar was a successful lobbying effort to change the deadline to June 30, 2000, to allow more time to review and revise the problematic POT provisions.
Key Implementation Issues
Application of plusvalías to different situations. Most municipal representatives at the seminar agreed that plusvalías should be used only in those situations that result in a clear and substantial windfall, in order to generate greater citizen approval and a simpler administrative process during the first phase of implementation. The general consensus is that Contribución de Valorización has been accepted because the increase in the value of land that benefited from public investment was clearly understood by the owners, so they have been willing to pay the fee. In Bogotá, for example, Contribución de Valorización has been one of the major means for building new streets since 1969.
By comparison, plusvalías are applied only to situations in which a higher land value is specifically associated with a public land use decision defined in the POT, such as changing the land category, its density or its use. Extending the growth boundary to include rural land that can be developed in subsequent years is an explicit situation in which the change in land price is evident. Most representatives of municipalities felt this was the most obvious scenario for application and should be the main focus of the instrument in its first phase.
Accuracy of land value assessments.
Law 388 suggests that the date for the base land price against which the gain is measured is to be July 1997, the date when Congress approved the law. However, it is not clear whether and how the municipalities can determine that land price in subsequent years. The problem is that the initial base value to be compared to the current value may already be influenced by ‘rumors’ circulating about land designations in the master plans. Should the value be calculated before the rumors of urbanistic changes begin to circulate, or just before the actual decision is made? How should cities treat land value increments generated by actions occurring between that base date and the approval of the POT? For how long is the assessment valid? What happens after, say, 15 or 20 years?
These questions are all the more relevant considering that land use norms established recently in some cities have already been capitalized in land prices, thus reducing substantially the current margins for the application of Participación en Plusvalías.
Furthermore, there are different legal implications about which relevant values should be considered (i.e., current use vs. highest and best use). Should the land value increment be based on the potential or the actual value? Should the legally defined formula for assessments apply to the potential buildable area even if the builder is not requesting a license to develop the site to its full allowable density? What happens when a property that has been assessed on a certain date is not completed? Although the law defines the concept of zones with similar geo-economic characteristics, it is not clear whether the landowner may legally request the assessment to be done on a property-by-property basis or on the basis of homogeneous zones.
The short deadlines established by the law for calculating both commercial prices before the master plan and new reference prices after adoption of the plan also cause serious concerns. For example, the law states that the mayor has only five days after the new POT is approved to determine new prices in the affected areas, and that all calculations must be accomplished within the next 60 days. The legal structure for adopting simplified cost procedures to allow assessments for homogeneous areas of the city rather than for individual plots is not clear on this point.
Definition of land categories.
Differences in land categories between Law 9 of 1989 and Law 388 of 1997 have led to questions of applicability. Law 9 included a suburban land category that could be developed at moderate densities on the outskirts of cities. For example, all of the developable land to the north of Bogotá is now in that suburban category, which permits residential densities of 160 inhabitants per hectare. The zoning proposed by the new master plan permits an increase to between 180 and 220 inhabitants per hectare. Law 388 states that the change from rural to urban use may be taxed, but does not address the suburban category, even though suburban land already has strong development rights. Because of these difficulties, many cities prefer to treat suburban land as similar to urban land in order to avoid further implementation problems.
Exemptions and special cases.
Land for low-income housing is exempted from plusvalías, but the law states that the land value increments must be calculated anyway. This may constitute an unnecessary additional cost, considering that 80 percent of all housing to be built in Bogotá within the next ten years will be low-income housing. How does this affect the fairness of this instrument on the remaining 20 percent of housing? How effective will plusvalías be as a planning instrument seeking to decrease speculation on land designated for social housing?
Another issue deals with wipeouts resulting from master plan designation of conservation zones or areas set aside for environmental protection through transfer of development rights (TDRs). Complaints from private agents of ‘takings’ against their full rights of ownership raise important questions of compensation. Areas that already have been designated for high-density development but are not yet fully built also raise questions about the expectation component of land values.
Political and operational obstacles.
A continuing source of confusion and misunderstanding concerns the technical issues associated with the effective calculation of the land value increment. Can it or should it be implemented in cases when, due to general economic recession, all land values are allegedly declining? If landowners are either selling land at a loss or not initiating development on their properties at all, then, quite simply, no plusvalías would be available to the local administration. Theoretically, all that is needed is to distinguish generating effects (administrative actions) from trends in land markets. In practice, however, it is easy to understand that instruments of value capture are more robust, and more palatable politically, during the upswing of land price cycles than the downswing, as is currently the case in Colombia.
The political overtones of this issue become clearer when considering the substantial land portfolios that developers normally hold for strategic planning motives, including for speculation. In effect, urban planners are hard pressed to be more flexible, if not magnanimous, in relaxing urbanistic norms and regulations in order to motivate developers during times of recession. However, this kind of pressure from developers may be simply an attempt to gain compensation for poor investment decisions in the past.
Sometimes developers complain that the municipality is setting the plusvalías fee too high in times of declining prices when recession may create disincentives for future investments in building improvements. However, a counter-argument based on the experience with Contribución de Valorización suggests that if the amount of plusvalías on the changing land use is considered to be overvalued, it follows that the change is probably not cost-effective and should not be proposed. It is also possible that a mistake was made in the feasibility study or the calculations.
Over and above these practical difficulties are certain implementation requirements in the law that affect its operation, such as the need to directly notify the landowner that the property is ‘liable’ for plusvalías. Should the burden reside with the public administration or with the owner? Similarly, there are legal difficulties surrounding the moment when plusvalías should be charged to the property owner, as in the liquidation of properties or in the request for a license to change the use of land. Some grounds for complaints of double taxation could also be raised if an area to be densified (or receive any change in zoning) has received additional infrastructure on which the Contribuición de Valorización provision was charged. The independence of this instrument from plusvalías, as stated by the new law, is important because of the existing option of calculating and charging the plusvalías for public works designated by the POT.
Adjustments Proposed by Municipal Officials
Public officials at the December seminar in Bogotá suggested a few ways to simplify the implementation of Law 388 by sacrificing precision in the calculation of the plusvalías in favor of expediency, transparency and compliance. This perspective is based on the belief that political will may be more important than technical consistency, at least in the early, transitional stages of implementation, in order to improve the chances of long-term success. A very telling and useful example was given by officials from the city of Cartagena (500,000 inhabitants), which has been applying the Contribución de Desarrollo Municipal effectively since 1992. Their experience shows that the effect of density changes to a new lot should be similar with regard to the generation of plusvalías to the rate generated by the same kind of density change already observed in a different but comparable area of the city.
Participants also proposed restricting the application of plusvalías to the more strategic and dynamic areas of the city where the windfall potential is most apparent and expressive, rather than in areas where the land value increments are small. Furthermore, assessment of plusvalías should be based on homogeneous zones, not on individual plots. The plusvalías instrument also needs to be developed and phased in over time as the municipalities gain greater knowledge and sophistication in valuation and assessment techniques. The established nine-year period for the validation of the assessments of land value increments, therefore, should be subject to more frequent periodic review. Some practical transition rules, absent in the original formulation of the law, also will help facilitate the introduction of a new fiscal system.
Other suggestions were made regarding the adoption of master plans (POTs). Municipalities should use these plans, rather than some other valuation mechanism external to the POT, to identify areas where there will be a change in land use in order to determine whether, in fact, it is a higher use and thus subject to an increase in plusvalías. Before adopting the POT, the municipalities should identify such areas so the valuation and assessment techniques could be worked out ahead of time and the sense of uncertainty could be mitigated. Some participants even suggested using the POT to define the relevant ex-ante situation (or prior value) to determine the net land value increment.
In general, the participants agreed that the concept and aims of the master plan and plusvalías instruments are both acceptable and desirable. Many of the problems and issues discussed at the seminar and throughout the country pertain to the implementation of any value capture scheme, or any new fiscal or normative legislation for that matter. In this case there is certainly substantial room for improving the design of the implementation procedures, since changes to operational aspects are always easier to achieve than changes to the law itself. But, over and above the remaining formal difficulties, it has been clearly demonstrated that political will, accumulated technical expertise and the ethical commitment of the participants are all critical to perfecting this land policy instrument and implementing the highly commendable principles that inspire it.
Carolina Barco de Botero is the planning director for the city of Bogotá. She is also a managing consultant with Ciudades, Ltda. in Bogotá and a member of the Lincoln Institute Board of Directors. Martim Smolka is senior fellow and director of the Institute’s Latin America and Caribbean Program.
Fernanda Furtado, a fellow of the Lincoln Institute, also contributed to this article. She recently completed her Ph.D. thesis (in Portuguese) on value capture in Latin America, at the Faculty of Architecture and Urbanism of the University of São Paulo, Brazil. One of her thesis chapters describes the situation in Colombia.
Pros and Cons of Participación en Plusvalías
Pros
Cons
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The complexity that characterizes the interaction of transportation and land use in urban areas is matched by the variety of the disciplines called on to address these issues, including economics, urban planning and civil engineering. In recent decades, communication among scholars in these disciplines has improved and the acceptance of a common base of theory and method, based on economics, is increasing. The Taxation, Resources and Economic Development (TRED) conference on “Transportation and Land Use” held at the Lincoln Institute in October 1996 focused on these issues. Ten papers presented at that conference are now published in a special issue of the journal Urban Studies. The papers are organized into four groups as summarized below.
Trends in Urban Development
Gregory Ingram’s paper on “Metropolitan Development: What Have We Learned?” documents the worldwide prevalence of several trends that characterize modern urbanization. Employment decentralization and the emergence of multiple employment centers in large metropolitan areas are observed worldwide in both developing and developed countries. Although employment continues to be more centralized than population, the typical Central Business District does not contain more than about 20 percent of jobs, and much smaller percentages are common in the U.S. Manufacturing employment has become more decentralized than service employment. Decentralization has reduced traffic congestion and travel distances and has contributed to a weakening of transit systems. The increased affordability of motorized transportation worldwide has led to more trip-making, with work trips typically being less than a third of all trips in urbanized areas.
Peter Gordon, Harry Richardson and Gang Yu find evidence that the suburbanization and exurbanization of employment in the U.S. has picked up its pace since 1988. In their paper, “Metropolitan and Non-Metropolitan Employment Trends in the U.S.: Recent Evidence and Implications,” they argue that the ability of manufacturing and even of services to locate in exurban and rural areas, shunning inner-suburban and central city locations, is a consequence of the continued weakening of the agglomeration economies that shaped the now outdated downtown-oriented city.
Robert Cervero and Kang-Li Wu examine the relationship between average commuting distance and employment subcentering in their paper, “Subcentering and Commuting: Evidence from the San Francisco Bay Area, 1980-1990.” They are concerned with changes in employment densities in 22 employment subcenters and with the commuting distances and travel times of those employed in these subcenters. The authors find that employment densities have increased more in the outlying suburban centers and that commuting to these centers has experienced modal shifts away from transit and in favor of the automobile. According to their data, while jobs in these centers grew by 18 percent during the decade, average one-way commuting distances to these 22 subcenters increased by 12 percent, and average one-way travel times rose by only 5 percent.
These findings are consistent with theory: with the number of subcenters fixed and the degree of spatial mismatch between jobs and housing invariant with job growth, an increase in the number of jobs in each subcenter should result in longer commutes on average. If new subcenters are spawned in between existing ones or new ones develop in outlying areas-something that does not appear to have occurred in the Bay Area-then average commutes should decrease. The 22 subcenters account for less than half of total employment in the Bay Area, the rest of the jobs being broadly dispersed throughout. Because such dispersed employment is not included in their study, we do not know about the total effect of job decentralization on average commute distances and times.
Genevieve Giuliano’s paper, “Information Technology, Work Patterns and Intrametropolitan Location: A Case Study,” examines the impact of information technology, including the advent of fax machines, computers, modems and the internet. One of her central observations is that while the U.S. labor force increased by 14 percent from 1980 to 1990, the “contingent workforce,” a diverse group of temporary workers, part-time workers, the self-employed and business service workers, increased much faster, from about 25 to 33 percent.
This trend implies that the information revolution is causing structural shifts in the labor force as more and more workers offer temporary services to a variety of employers and, as a result, do not have a long-term attachment to any one employer. Theory suggests that such workers should locate in a way that is sensitive to their expected accessibility to jobs. Also, the advent of information technology should facilitate “telecommuting,” thus reducing the need for physical proximity to jobs.
Giuliano uses the 1990 U.S. Census Public Use Microsample for the Los Angeles region to compare the residential location and commuting patterns of contingent and non-contingent workers. The socioeconomic complexity of contingent workers makes it difficult to draw clear conclusions, but Guiliano does find that those contingent workers who live in suburban areas are likely to live in high amenity areas. Controlling for socioeconomic factors, commuting distances are shorter for part-time workers than they are for full-time workers, and among full-time workers the self-employed have the shortest commutes.
Agglomeration Economies
The next two papers offer empirical contributions on intra-urban employment agglomeration. “Spatial Variation in Office Rents within the Atlanta Region,” by Christopher Bollinger, Keith Ihlanfeldt and David Bowes, is a hedonic rent study for office buildings in the Atlanta area from 1990 to 1996. The authors find that part of the rent differences among office buildings is due to differences in wage rates, transportation rates and proximity to concentrations of office workers. More importantly, the convenience of face-to-face meetings facilitated by office agglomerations is also reflected in office rents, providing evidence that agglomerative tendencies continue to be important in explaining office concentrations, despite the ability of information technology to reduce the need for some such contacts. In their paper, “Population Density in Suburban Chicago: A Bid-Rent Approach,” Daniel McMillen and John McDonald show that population density patterns in the Chicago MSA are strongly influenced by proximity to subcenters, which include the Central Business District, O’Hare Airport and 16 other centers. Site-specific variables such as access to commuter rail stations or highway interchanges have smaller influences on population densities.
Travel Behavior and Residential Choice
Among the challenges posed by the evolving trends in transportation and land use is a better explanation of the role of non-work travel in residential location decisionmaking. Motorized mobility has greatly increased non-work travel, thus weakening the relevance of the now classical commuting-based theory of residential location. While information technology may result in more telecommuting, the importance of non-work travel relative to work travel may grow even more in the future.
Two papers attempt to develop new techniques that can be used to explain the influence of non-work travel behavior on residential location and land use patterns, and vice versa. Central to this research is the notion that when a household makes a residential choice decision it will consider the pattern of non-work trips its members are likely to make. Accessibility to non-work opportunities is likely to be important and, for many households, perhaps more important than accessibility to jobs.
Moshe Ben-Akiva and John Bowman model the probability of choosing a residential location by treating the non-work trip patterns and activity schedules of the household’s members as explanatory variables. Their model allows the treatment of trips as tours with stops at multiple destinations. In their paper, “Integration of an Activity-Based Model System and a Residential Location Model,” the authors report that their model does not fit the data as well as a work-trip-based comparison model. But, the non-work accessibility measures are more appealing conceptually and allow a richer set of predictions and simulations to be made.
Until recently, economists have suppressed the importance of non-work trips in their theories of land use. Planners have viewed land use planning as a tool that can affect behavior and travel demand. But what is the evidence that travel patterns can be influenced meaningfully by manipulating land use at the neighborhood level or in a larger area?
Marlon Boarnet and Sharon Sarmiento tackle this question by means of a travel diary survey of Southern California residents. Their paper is titled “Can Land Use Policy Really Affect Travel Behavior? A Study of the Link Between Non-work Travel and Land Use Characteristics.” The number of work trips made by residents is explained by sociodemographic variables describing the residents and by land use characteristics describing their place of residence. Generally, the land use variables describing the neighborhood are not statistically significant, but future studies could follow this approach by trying more complex specifications and using better data.
Jobs-Housing Mismatch
As first stated by John Kain in 1968, the “spatial mismatch hypothesis” claimed that black central city residents are increasingly at a disadvantage economically as jobs disperse to the suburbs. Many suburban governments limit the quantity of high-density/low-income housing, forcing workers to make long, expensive commutes. Although there is a wealth of empirical work on the mismatch hypothesis, Richard Arnott’s paper, “Economic Theory and the Mismatch Hypothesis,” is one of the first attempts to formulate a microeconomic theory of the mismatch problem. In Arnott’s model, jobs flee to the suburbs because of the advent of international trade (relaxation of global trade barriers) and the emergence of suburban-based inter-city truck transport after World War II. At the same time, large-lot zoning and discrimination in suburban housing markets force minorities to reside in central cities. An increase in the cost of commuting effectively lowers the wage paid to low-skilled labor from the city.
In “Where Youth Live: Economic Effects of Urban Space on Employment Prospects,” John Quigley and Katherine O’Regan investigate how neighborhood of residence and access to jobs affect the employment prospects of minority youth. Black youth unemployment rates are higher in metropolitan areas where blacks are more isolated geographically. Controlling for socioeconomic characteristics, minority youth who have less residential exposure to whites are more likely to be unemployed. Finally, controlling for socioeconomic characteristics as well as residential exposure to whites, minority youth living in neighborhoods that are less accessible to jobs are more likely to be unemployed. While these findings support the mismatch hypothesis, they also suggest the importance of social networks and spatial search as important mechanisms in the intra-urban labor market.
Alex Anas, professor of economics at the State University of New York at Buffalo, was the editor of the special issue of Urban Studies (Vol. 35, No. 7, June 1998). The article and figures used in Land Lines are adapted with permission.
Note: Ben Chinitz, former director of research at the Institute, helped organize the 1996 TRED conference and the following colleagues served as discussants of the papers: James Follain, Vernon Henderson, Douglass Lee, Therese McGuire, Peter Mieszkowski, Edwin Mills, Sam Myers, Dick Netzer, Stephen Ross, Anita Summers, William Wheaton, Michelle White and John Yinger. The conference participants were saddened when news arrived that William Vickrey, who had been named a Nobel laureate in economics only a few days before, had passed away while traveling to the conference. Professor Vickrey had been a leading thinker on issues of transportation and land use and a regular attendee of previous TRED conferences. The special issue of Urban Studies based on the 1996 conference serves as a tribute to his memory.
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Governments have often intervened in land markets in Asian cities, but with limited effects. In recent decades, economic globalization and political democratization have created even stronger demands for more efficient and equitable land use policies. Rapid economic growth in cities with scarce land resources has generated a wave of new thinking on land values and land markets among scholars and policymakers.
The GATT (General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade) negotiations are stimulating new production structures in much of Asia, which consequently shift demand from agriculture into manufacturing and other urban land uses. At the same time, local governments are struggling with more financial autonomy and are becoming dependent on revenues from increased land values to subsidize the costs of development.
Three countries illustrate emerging land and tax policy issues raised by these complex interactions of international and local economies.
In Taiwan, land values for urban and agriculture uses are extremely divergent. The immediate issues are: 1) how to better use the 40,000 hectares of agricultural land that are no longer needed for production as a result of the GATT agreements; and 2) how to distribute the development benefits created by this conversion of agricultural land.
In Korea, the challenge concerns the legality of taxation to capture excessive increases in land value and gains from land speculation. Faced with builders’ pressure to develop greenbelts and open spaces in metropolitan areas and with local politicians’ concerns over fiscal autonomy, the central government is preparing a major tax reform to capture these increments in land value.
In Japan, land values have changed dramatically over the past ten years, but the reasons for these fluctuations are not always clear. Land speculation, unpredictable market forces and government regulation all play a part. Analysis of failed attempts to control land prices will be valuable in developing future policies.
Land Value and Speculation
The perception of land value in Taiwan, Korea, and Japan may not be significantly different from that in other capitalist countries. The problem is in the speculative value, also known as “unearned income” or the “unearned increment” in land value. This value can be so high that it distorts all the legal, administrative, political and social measures designed to manage the use of land. In Japan, for example, land value in major cities tripled from 1983 to 1989. In Korea, land value increased 13 times between 1975 and 1990, while the national income increased only 5 times in the same period. In Taiwan, the value of farm land increased 155 percent from 1986 to 1990, compared to the GDP’s 36 percent growth during the same period.
Policies intended to control land values during periods of high speculation are unlikely to succeed. During the boom times of the 1980s in all three Asian countries, special interest groups and politicians dependent on economic growth failed to anticipate any negative downturn effects. Land policies became disorganized, and conflicts arose among different government departments. For example, some local governments subsidized farmland owners who had already sold their land for conversion to urban uses and had benefited financially from this speculation. Financial institutions provided loans to corporations which depended on land speculation for their corporate earnings. The results were devastating: farmers who wished to farm could not afford to buy farm land; manufacturers could no longer compete when 60 percent of their investments were spent on land costs; and average citizens had an even more difficult time owning a house.
Reevaluating Land and Tax Policy
As land values have dropped in recent years, there is a new opportunity to revise land policies. Special interest groups and land value speculators have softened their opposition to government intervention on land markets. The GATT and WTO (World Trade Organization) negotiations are requiring countries to better coordinate their land policies and general economic policies in the interests of industrial readjustment. Future policies in Taiwan, Korea, and Japan will likely incorporate the following measures:
New regulations will be designed to convert some farmland and environmentally less-sensitive land for housing and mixed-use urban development. The goals are to continue sustainable development and to assist the conversion of the agricultural sector.
Tax reform and exaction-like laws will be introduced to capture the “unearned income” from land speculation. A capital gains tax, land value tax and land value increment tax will be the hallmarks of tax reform. Local government will be given more autonomy to require private developers to share benefits with the community.
Land use planning systems will be coordinated at all levels of government to manage growth. New land use controls will be designed to cope with new economic activities derived from the economic readjustments.
To help advance these land and tax policy reforms, the Lincoln Institute research staff is working with colleagues in each country. The Council of Agriculture in Taiwan, Republic of China, and the Institute are conducting a three-year joint study (1994-97) on land value capture and benefit distribution mechanisms. A team of researchers from the Lincoln Institute and the Korea Tax Institute is researching tax reform for the Korea Ministry of Finance during the 1995-1996 academic year. Both American and Japanese scholars are examining land values in Japan from a macroeconomic perspective.
Alven Lam in a Lincoln Institute fellow whose current research focuses on land value capture and property rights in Asia.
Additional information in the printed newletter.
Chart: Indices of Korea Land Values and Major Economic Indicators: 1980, 1985 and 1990. Land prices, housing prices, national income and wholesale prices are charted. Source: Office of National Statistics, Korea Statistical Yearbook, each year, and Kim, Dai-Young, “Choices for Future Land Policy,” in Land Policy Problems in East Asia, 1994.
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This article is adapted from a policy roundtable report on national spatial development strategies prepared under the auspices of the Lincoln Institute, Regional Plan Association and the University of Pennsylvania School of Design. The roundtable was held in September 2004 at the Pocantico Conference Center of the Rockefeller Brothers Fund. The impetus for this project developed in the spring of 2004 in a graduate city planning studio directed by Robert Yaro and Jonathan Barnett, both Practice Professors in City and Regional Planning at Penn, and Visiting Professor Armando Carbonell. With funding support from the Ford Foundation’s Institute of International Education, additional input was provided by a distinguished team of European and American planning experts hosted by Professor Sir Peter Hall at the Institute of Community Studies in London, England.
European efforts to develop policies and investments for the entire continent and for regions that cross national boundaries have been organized under the umbrella of the European Spatial Development Perspective, a set of policy directives and strategies adopted by the European Union in 1999 (Faludi 2002). Over the past generation the EU has initiated a large-scale approach to planning for metropolitan growth, mobility, environmental protection and economic development. Europeans use the umbrella term “spatial planning” to describe this process, involving plans that span regional and national borders and encompass new “network cities” spread out over hundreds of kilometers (see Figure 1). The EU is also mobilizing public and private resources at the continental scale, with bold plans and investments designed to integrate the economies of and reduce the economic disparities between member states and regions, and to increase the competitiveness of the continent in global markets.
By contrast, the United States has no strategy to anticipate and manage comparable concerns, even though the U.S. population is expected to grow another 40 percent by 2050. How can this growth be accommodated in metropolitan regions that are already choking on congestion and approaching build-out under current trends and policies? How can we improve the competitiveness and livability of our own emerging constellation of network cities? How can the U.S. reduce the growing disparities in wealth and population among fast-growing coastal regions, vast interior rural areas and declining industrial cities? How can the U.S. promote regional strategies designed to address these concerns?
Two important precedents have shaped this analysis of America’s spatial development. The national development and conservation strategies prepared by President Thomas Jefferson in 1807 and President Theodore Roosevelt in 1907 stimulated the major infrastructure, conservation and regional economic development strategies that powered America’s economic growth in its first two centuries. Other major strategies and investments promoted in the administrations of Presidents Lincoln, Franklin Roosevelt and Eisenhower also had a profound impact on the nation’s growth. Some examples are the Morrill Act land grant university system, the Homestead Act, and creation of the national rail and interstate highway systems.
Economic, Demographic and Spatial Trends
Rapid population growth
The U.S. Census Bureau forecasts that the nation’s population will grow by 40 percent to 430 million by 2050, whereas most European countries are expected to lose significant numbers of residents, due to declining birth rates and limited immigration. This means we must build half again as much housing and as much commercial and retail space and the infrastructure needed to support these activities in the next half century as we have in the past two centuries.
The study of historical settlement patterns sheds light on current and future patterns. While early settlers clung primarily to the coasts and in compact urban regions, the inventions of rail transportation and later the automobile forever changed settlement patterns and allowed people to set up homes in the interior of the country and in highly decentralized metropolitan areas. Fast-growing Sunbelt states, such as Texas, California and Florida, are expected to see sustained rapid population growth, spurred by the trend of immigrant populations settling in those and surrounding states.
While most central cities will continue to grow at a moderate pace, many metropolitan regions around these urban cores are expected to experience remarkable development. As the city of Philadelphia continues to lose population, for example, its adjacent suburbs and areas further outside the city continue to grow. In general, however, the number of people living in urbanized areas as opposed to rural areas is projected to continue rising, signaling an increase in the amount of urbanized land in the coming decades.
The building out of suburban America
Since 1970 the vast majority of the nation’s economic and population growth has occurred in 30 large metropolitan regions, mostly in their sprawling outer rings. While some cities and inner-ring suburbs are now experiencing infill development and renewed population growth, many others are approaching “build-out,” which increases traffic congestion and commuting times, contributes to loss of farmland, and creates conflicts between new development and green infrastructure, such as public water supplies and wildlife habitat.
In less than three centuries, 46 million acres of America’s virgin landscape have been converted to urban uses. In the next 25 years that number will more than double to 112 million acres. If current growth and land consumption rates continue, another 100 million acres will be urbanized by 2050, at a rate seven times faster than the population will grow.
Uneven and inequitable growth patterns
While most population and economic growth has been in large metropolitan regions, other areas of the country have experienced losses. Large rural regions where resource-based economies or groundwater reserves are in permanent decline are left without the means to support even basic services. A number of large urban centers and second-tier cities also have experienced decades of decline. For example, Philadelphia, Baltimore, Pittsburgh, Cleveland, Detroit, St. Louis and New Orleans have lost a third or more of their populations since 1960. Even in cities where the outer-ring suburbs have grown, many inner cities and inner-ring suburbs have lost residents, tax base and economic activity, and poverty has become highly concentrated. Many of these places have high concentrations of African-Americans, Native Americans, Latinos and poor whites who will be increasingly disadvantaged as economic opportunities in these regions decline.
In contrast with the U.S., the European Union for decades has invested vast sums to promote development and redevelopment of comparable bypassed areas. These investments have produced dramatic results in revitalizing the economies of Ireland, Spain, Portugal and Greece, and formerly depressed cities and regions in Europe’s periphery. Similar strategic investments in America’s disadvantaged cities and regions could produce comparable results.
Limited infrastructure capacity
Metropolitan infrastructure of all kinds, most of it built in the last half of the twentieth century, will reach its capacity limits in the first decades of the twenty-first century. Unless new capacity is created in roads, rails, airports, seaports and other systems, the nation’s economic potential will be artificially limited. Federal transportation investments over the past decade have been largely focused on maintaining the existing infrastructure, not on expanding the capacity of these systems.
Over the last 50 years, Americans have become increasingly mobile. The increase in miles traveled per person has been most pronounced in car and aircraft travel, creating new challenges to keep various types of transportation corridors congestion-free. At the same time, congestion poses a serious threat to manufacturing and freight sectors of the economy. Experts believe that by 2020 there will be nearly a doubling of trucks on the roadways over current numbers. Significant policy measures are needed to channel more resources into high-capacity transportation systems for both individual and commercial activity.
Emergence of megalopolis
In 1961 French geographer Jean Gottman described the Boston–Washington Megalopolis. Between now and 2050, more than half of the nation’s population growth, and perhaps as much as two-thirds of its economic growth, will occur in this and seven other emerging megalopolitan regions whose extended networks of metropolitan centers are linked by interstate highway and rail corridors. Similar networks of cities in Europe and Asia are now seen as the new competitive units in the global economy. Major public and private investments are being made in high-speed rail, broadband communications and other infrastructure to strengthen transportation and economic synergies among their component centers.
The New Megalopolis
The new megalopolis is a model for cooperation among the cities and regions in the U.S. that are growing together and creating diseconomies in congested transportation networks, which in turn affect the economic vitality and quality of life of these regions. This model is based on the idea that if the cities in these colliding regions work together they can create a new urban form that will increase economic opportunity and global competitiveness for each individual city and for the nation as a whole.
These component metropolitan areas will have to cooperate in the formation of a structure that takes advantage of the complementary roles of each area while addressing common concerns in the areas of transportation, economic development, environmental protection, and equity. The new megalopolis model will contribute to improving social and economic cohesion along with a better territorial balance, and will support more sustainable development by emphasizing collaboration on important policy issues, infrastructure investments and instruments for facilitating economic growth and job creation.
To facilitate the development of megalopolitan areas, the U.S. could focus on creating a truly intermodal network linking rail, highway and air transportation. Such connections would relieve congested airports and provide greater options for freight movement. The resulting transportation flexibility would be less vulnerable to terrorist attacks and disaster. Furthermore, regional infrastructure and development focused around rail stations would shape and redirect urban growth in more efficient, less sprawling patterns.
Our current direction is building a country whose competitiveness is threatened by inefficient urban forms and declining rural communities. The new megalopolis concept points us in a different direction, one in which urban areas and their surrounding regions work together on a larger scale to address common concerns and share their complementary strengths. This new model would produce an America that is environmentally sustainable, socially equitable, and competitive in an increasingly global economy.
Six distinctive regions can be identified based on common history, geographic location and topography: the Northeast, Mid-Atlantic, South, Midwest, Southwest and West. Most of the nation’s rapid population growth, and an even larger share of its economic expansion, is expected to occur in eight emerging metropolitan areas spread over thousands of square miles and located in every one of these regions (see Figure 2). These megalopolitan areas are becoming America’s economic engines: centers of technological and cultural innovation where the vast majority of immigrants who are driving population and economic growth will assimilate into the economic and social mainstream.
In Europe and Asia similar network cities are already being seen as the new competitive units in the global economy. The European Union and national governments in Europe, China and Japan are investing hundreds of billions of dollars in new intermodal transportation and communication links and other infrastructure to underpin the capacity, efficiency and livability of these regions. In all of these places, new high-speed rail networks are integrating the economies of formerly isolated regions.
Toward an American Spatial Development Perspective
An American Spatial Development Perspective (ASDP) could encompass long-range strategies to achieve five broad national goals.
The federal government could play a crucial role in this process, through collaborations with existing and emerging “bottom-up” networks of interconnected regional strategies, encompassing each of the emerging megalopoli. Ideally, the federal government would help coordinate and “incentivize” these planning efforts, but rely on local and regional initiatives to drive each region’s own strategies.
The federal government could also lead in coordinating infrastructure planning and investments for national and regional intermodal, high-speed transportation networks, as it did in promoting creation of the national rail and interstate highway systems. These investments would be made through partnerships between federal, state and regional government, and private investors. User fees, tolls and fares would cover a substantial portion of the cost of developing and managing these systems.
Regional strategies could also promote investments in major higher education and research institutions needed to maintain the nation’s competitive advantage in technology and create a lifelong learning system to help skilled workers adapt to economic change. This broad approach could also identify the important natural resource systems that sustain public water supplies, biological resources, sense of place and recreational opportunities. Future growth could be designed to reuse formerly used sites and to reclaim and restore impaired landscapes and natural resource systems.
Plans for these infrastructure systems should be closely coordinated with strategies for smaller-scale urban and regional development, to ensure that future development patterns support, and are supported by, these infrastructure investments. Federal and state governments could invest in demonstration projects to test innovative transportation, land use, environmental and other strategies.
Building and Financing the ASDP
The proposed new infrastructure systems and urban development outlined in this article could cost trillions of dollars, much of which could be financed through user fees and public-private partnerships. It should also be possible to employ modest payroll or other taxes to finance some of these investments, which would generate trillions of dollars of new economic capacity for the whole nation. The expected doubling of the national economy by 2050 would expand the gross domestic product by more than $14 trillion (in constant dollars). Redirecting even a small share of the growth of tax revenues in these strategic investments could secure the nation’s economic future.
For over a hundred years, the U.S. has financed major infrastructure projects through a “top-down” system, with major funding from the federal government complemented by state resources. Based on general public agreement of national priorities, this model financed several generations of growth and paid for one of the world’s great infrastructure systems. However, this approach is now being challenged as the needs of maintaining our aging infrastructure systems outpace federal and state funding, to say nothing of new capacity expansion. Today we witness a debate between “donor” and “donee” states over the fairness of federal transportation funds, even as the total amount of federal dollars falls far short of estimated needs. As a result, we find ourselves increasingly starved for capital for infrastructure systems.
To provide more funding for system maintenance and expansion, metropolitan regions are looking to new and innovative financing systems. Public authorities use their tax-free status to attract private dollars through bond issuances, sales and lease-back arrangements. New user fees, such as congestion pricing or high-occupancy-vehicle lanes on toll roads, link charges to those who benefit the most from new investments, creating new revenue streams. And value capture models, such as tax increment financing, allow increases in land values to finance infrastructure investments.
The federal government is advancing instruments such as TIFIA, the Transportation Infrastructure Innovation Act, to stimulate the development of these projects. However, megalopolitan areas have a critical role to play in this emerging system. They provide a vital link between state and federal government and local jurisdictions, which in many cases have the last word over land use decisions. These regional areas transcend political boundaries and capture the true economic and social geography of their communities. And they have the size, capacity and expertise to undertake complex planning strategies.
Armando Carbonell is senior fellow and co-chair of the Lincoln Institute’s Department of Planning and Development. Robert D. Yaro is president of the Regional Plan Association in New York City.
References
Faludi, Andreas, ed. 2002. European spatial planning. Cambridge, MA: Lincoln Institute of Land Policy.
Lincoln Institute of Land Policy and Regional Plan Association. 2004. Toward an American spatial development perspective. Policy Roundtable Report. September.
University of Pennsylvania School of Design. 2004. Planning for America in a global economy: 2004–2005. City Planning Studio Report. Spring.
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Report from the President on Property Rights
