Preparing for the Expected Unexpected

This toolkit provides a guide for how scenario planning can be used to create robust and resilient strategies to mitigate and respond to growing wildfire risks based on the experience of the Rural Municipality (RM) of Piney in Manitoba, Canada. The RM of Piney encourages and benefits from participatory processes that help to create a shared, community-based understanding of challenges in the municipality, as well as the plans and strategies to address these challenges.

In 2024 and 2025, the Consortium for Scenario Planning supported five XSP projects that focused on the use of exploratory scenario planning (XSP) to enhance community disaster recovery and resilience planning. Selected projects addressed various disasters, from wildfire and extreme heat, to sea level rise and flooding. The projects resulted in the development of toolkits that demonstrate how the scenario planning process was adapted in each of the communities. The other toolkit belonging to this series can be accessed below:

Enhancing Disaster Management and Resilience to Floods through Exploratory Scenario Planning in Colombia

Elaboración de “escenarios de riesgo” de base comunitaria: Estudio de caso en Santa Fe, Argentina (Spanish language)

Coastal Flood Planning and Adaptation Workshop A Scenario-Based Toolkit