Enhancing Disaster Management and Resilience to Floods through Exploratory Scenario Planning in Colombia

This toolkit is a tool to support planning departments, practitioners, and communities looking to be more resilient to urban risks and more prepared for the challenges of climate change and environmental risk associated with water in urban and coastal areas. Our two selected case studies in Barrio Policarpa in Cartagena and Tunjuelo River Low Basin in Bogotá explore the potential of exploratory scenario planning (XSP) in different urban contexts: an informal settlement in a coastal area (Barrio Policarpa, Cartagena) and a high-density urban area in a high-altitude city (Tunjuelo River Low Basin, Bogotá).

In 2024 and 2025, the Consortium for Scenario Planning supported five XSP projects that focused on the use of exploratory scenario planning (XSP) to enhance community disaster recovery and resilience planning. Selected projects addressed various disasters, from wildfire and extreme heat, to sea level rise and flooding. The projects resulted in the development of toolkits that demonstrate how the scenario planning process was adapted in each of the communities. The other toolkit belonging to this series can be accessed below:

Elaboración de “escenarios de riesgo” de base comunitaria: Estudio de caso en Santa Fe, Argentina (Spanish language)