New PFR Announcement - Making Room for a Planet of Cities (Land Lines Article)

Author(s): Angel, Shlomo, with Jason Parent, Daniel L. Civco, and Alejandro M. Blei
Publication Date: January 2011

1 pages; Inventory ID LLA110107; English

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Article

New Policy Focus Report
Making Room for a Planet of Cities

The prevailing urban planning paradigm now guiding the expansion of cities and metropolitan areas is premised on the containment of urban sprawl, but containment is not appropriate in rapidly urbanizing countries where most growth in now taking place. Shlomo Angel and his colleagues have analyzed the quantitative dimensions of past, present, and future urban land cover and propose a different paradigm—the making room paradigm—as a more realistic strategy for cities and metropolitan regions that need to prepare for their inevitable expansion.

This policy focus report seeks to enrich understanding of the context in which preparations for urban expansion must take place in cities around the world using empirical data on key parameters that characterize their spatial structure and its changes over time. Carefully selected metrics measured in four new data sets with ArcGIS software now allow us to construct a comprehensive and consistent global and historical perspective on urban expansion. These data sets are:

1. A global sample of 120 cities with 100,000 people or more in 1990 and 2000;

2. A set of 20 U. S. cities, 1910–2000;

3. A representative sample of 30 global cities, 1800–2000, from the set of 120 cities; and

4. A universe of 3,646 cities that had 100,000 people or more in 2000.

The report examines three discrete attributes of urban spatial structure and their change over time: density, the average population density of the built-up area; fragmentation, the amount of open space in and around cities that is fragmented by their built-up areas; and urban land cover, the total land area occupied by cities. Some of the research findings are:

• on average, densities in developing countries are double those in Europe and Japan, and densities in Europe and Japan are double those of the United States, Canada, and Australia;

• average built-up area densities declined by 2 percent per annum between 1990 and 2000 and have been in persistent decline for a century or more;

• cities have fragmented open spaces in and around them that are equivalent in size to their built-up areas;

• at present rates, the world’s urban population is expected to double in 43 years while urban land cover will double in only 19 years; and

• the urban population of the developing countries is expected to double between 2000 and 2030 while the built-up area of their cities can be expected to triple.

These projections of urban expansion in all regions, especially in developing countries, should give pause to advocates of global urban containment. The proposed making room paradigm is grounded in the conviction that we need to prepare for the sustainable growth and expansion of cities in rapidly urbanizing countries rather than seek to constrict and contain them. This alternative paradigm consists of four key components: (1) realistic projections of urban land needs; (2) generous metropolitan limits; (3) selective protection of open space; and (4) an arterial grid of roads.

This report provides both the conceptual framework and, for the first time, the basic empirical data and quantitative dimensions of past, present, and future urban expansion in cities around the world that are necessary for making minimal preparations for future growth. At the very least, the report lays the foundation for fruitful discussion of the fate of our cities and our planet as we seek to identify and employ appropriate strategies for managing urban expansion at sustainable densities.

About the Authors

Shlomo Angel is a visiting fellow at the Lincoln Institute of Land Policy. He is also adjunct professor of urban planning at the Robert F. Wagner Graduate School of Public Service of New York University, and a lecturer in public and international affairs at the Woodrow Wilson School of Princeton University. Contact: solly.angel@gmail.com

Jason Parent is a doctoral candidate and GIS specialist at the Center for Land Use Education and Research (CLEAR) in the Department of Natural Resources and the Environment of the University of Connecticut. Contact: Jason.parent@uconn.edu

Daniel L. Civco is professor of geomatics and director of the Center for Land Use Education and Research (CLEAR) in the Department of Natural Resources and the Environment of the University of Connecticut. Contact: daniel.civco@uconn.edu

Alejandro M. Blei is a doctoral candidate at the Department of Urban Planning and Policy of the University of Illinois at Chicago and a transportation analyst at Pace Suburban Bus, a transit agency serving metropolitan Chicago. Contact: alex.m.blei@gmail.com

Making Room for a Planet of Cities
Shlomo Angel with Jason Parent, Daniel L. Civco, and Alejandro M. Blei
2011 / 72 pages / Paper / $15.00
ISBN 978-1-55844-212-2
Policy Focus Report / Code PF027

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www.lincolninst.edu