Estimating and Analyzing Land Supply Development Capacity (Working Paper)

The Case of Southeast Seattle

Author(s): Moudon, Anne Vernez
Publication Date: May 2001

40 pages; Inventory ID WP01AM1; English


Estimating and Analyzing Land Supply Development Capacity	778 KB

Abstract

This paper describes a method to estimate the land supply and development capacity of an urban area. The method, which draws from those devised by the City of Seattle, is applied to a portion of the city using parcel-level data with GIS software. Steps to estimate supply and capacity include the identification of all buildable lands (vacant, partially utilized, and underutilized lands) and the calculation of the development capacity of each one of these types of lands, taking into account zoning categories. Southeast Seattle has 11 percent and 17 percent of its net land supply in vacant or refill lands, respectively. It has the potential to increase its residential capacity by 57 percent, and its employment capacity by more than 80 percent. Analyses suggest that the potential for mixed-use development and redevelopment may be hindered by the relatively high supply of both vacant and refill lands in the lower-density residential zones presently preferred by both producers and consumers. Analyses also show that the criteria used to identify refill lands can have a substantial effect on development capacity estimates. This indicates that planners need to carefully test the criteria selected before performing final capacity estimates. Finally, this case study shows that while the structure and steps of land supply and capacity analysis are reasonably straightforward, the handling of the database requires special skills that many planners presently lack.